Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  24  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         26  25  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     27  25  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  27  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       27  25  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   30  29  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    30  27  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     27  26  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          28  26  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     30  28  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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