Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
515 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently in place at KLBB and KPVW. A cloud bank
with lower ceilings and visibilities just east of KLBB and KPVW
will create IFR to LIFR conditions after sunset and remain in
place through Saturday morning. KCDS will likely remain IFR
through tomorrow morning. Strong west winds expected to develop
Saturday morning will help low ceilings dissipate at KLBB and
KPVW by mid- morning while taking a bit longer at KCDS. Winds will
become stronger through the afternoon possibility creating
blowing and visibilities down to 3 SM at times at KLBB/KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Although we just saw cool, cloudy, and moist conditions very
recently, mother nature will remind us it is still winter and fire
weather will come back with a vengeance.

An upper level trough axis is currently centered over the Great
Basin and will eject onto the central Plains on Saturday afternoon.
Low level moisture was already prevalent over the Rolling Plains
this afternoon evidenced by the abundant low stratus. As the upper
level trough moves across the Rockies tonight, it will draw a good
amount of this low level moisture onto the caprock. Low stratus and
fog will spread back onto the caprock tonight. This moisture will be
fairly shallow with the best depth off the caprock up to about
800mb. A couple of upper level jet streaks to the north and south of
the Rolling Plains will bring broad large scale ascent and likely
more showers overnight off the caprock. Lift will be further aided
by strong moist isentropic ascent. This will garner some elevated
instability increasing the likelihood of thunder with the rain
showers.

A Pacific cold front will race through the area on Saturday morning
quickly scouring out the low level moisture. Although the wind maxes
aloft will be displaced northeast of the region, we will still see
windy conditions during the afternoon. Extreme subsidence behind the
cold front will bring very dry air down to the surface along with
the stronger winds aloft. Another trough will transverse the
Panhandle on Sunday bringing somewhat of a repeat of Saturday`s
conditions. However, this short wave looks to be weaker so winds are
not expected to be as strong on Sunday but very dry air will remain
in place.

A deepening trough over California early next week will begin to
draw low level moisture back into the area. As this trough ejects
out around Wednesday or so we will see additional chances of
precipitation. But also chances for more fire weather especially on
Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Although moisture recoveries will be near 100% for much of the
region tonight, a strong Pacific cold front will quickly scour out
this moisture by late morning. Very strong westerly winds and
extremely dry air will be in the wake of this cold front.
Temperatures will near seasonal averages but the very dry air will
allow afternoon relative humidity values to be below 10 percent area
wide. Winds at the 20 foot level will peak at about 25-30 mph with
the strongest winds across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Additional fire weather concerns will likely come back into play on
Sunday with very dry air remaining in place. Winds are expected to
be lighter on Sunday but still between 20 and 25 mph at the 20 foot
level.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

99/99/28



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