Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 290925
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07



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