Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT VFR DECKS WILL BECOME SKC BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH IT IS EXPANDING EWRD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITING THE FILTERING OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM
POTENTIAL. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AS SFC LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL AID IN A RELATIVE UNIFORM SFC WIND FIELD OF S-SE WINDS.
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO THIS
AFTN-EVENING. ALTHOUGH A WRLY MEAN FLOW EXISTS IT IS RATHER WEAK /5-
10 KTS/...AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATE NERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN
THE MITIGATION OF STORMS FROM REACHING THE CWA. AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS /WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE/ WILL RESULT IN A
WARMER DAY /90S CWA-WIDE/ FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT /60S/.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE FCST AREA THAN OF RECENT WEEKS. BY FRIDAY WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE COULD SEE SOME PRECIP MOVE INTO THE NWRN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  62  92  62 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         90  61  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     90  63  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     90  62  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       91  65  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   89  63  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    90  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  68  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          95  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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