Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 231427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY
WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW


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