Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS


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