Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
204 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern
U.S. into the Rockies with a trough over the lower Great Lakes and a
shortwave over southern Manitoba. This shortwave affects the area
this afternoon into this evening as it heads southeast and digs into
the lower Great Lakes on Fri while also closing off a 500 mb low.
System does not have much moisture to work with and just grazes the
western cwa this afternoon. Will keep slight chance pops along the
WI border late this afternoon and then will have dry conditions
through the rest of the forecast period. Overall, did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Quiet through the weekend. Appears that the GFS has now backed off
of bringing front into the area as early as Sun. Rain chances do
come back into the picture early next week as weak frontal boundaries
settle across the area in NW flow aloft.

With the high overhead through the weekend, expect light/lake breeze
driven winds during the aftn and calm winds at night inland with a
light breeze continuing along the Great Lakes shores. Light winds
and clear skies with the high could allow mins on Sat morning to
drop into the upper 30s to near 40F at favored cold spots inland.
With plenty of sunshine daytime highs Fri and Sat should top out
in the upper 70s to low 80s and into the low to mid 80s on Sun.

NW flow aloft early next week results in couple of weak fronts
crossing Upper Great Lakes Mon and Tue with stronger shortwave
bringing a sharper front through mid to late week. These weak
fronts could trigger some showers and thunder Mon and Tue. Coverage
should remain isolated or scattered and probably will peak during
each aftn. Stronger shortwave trough and frontal boundary moving
into the area by mid week sometime in the Wed through Thu time
frame should provide best chances at widespread rain next week.
Model guidance offers up differences in what day will have best
focus for rain so will stay with consensus guidance attm.
Temperatures early next week should end up slightly above normal
with readings mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest inland.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as
high pressure remains over the area into Tue.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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