Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010456
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1156 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND -18C TO -20C HAS ALLOWED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. INITIALLY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALLOWING BETTER SNOW GROWTH WITH A THICKER SNOW GROTH
AREA WITHIN THE DGZ. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
4KFT AND 5KFT THIS AFETERNOON WHICH IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE MQT VAD
WIND PROFILE THIS AFETERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED GOOD SNOWFLAKE SIZE
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW ON A
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND. DRY AIR REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH AROUND 00Z/01 AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHIFTING THE SNOWBANDS TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. AGAIN...REDUCED
MOISTURE...LOWERED INVERSION HEIGHTS ALONG WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CHECK ACROSS THE U.P. WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED SNOW
BELTS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERLY WIND
FAVORED LOCATIONS...WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...NW FLOW LES AND POOR VSBY DUE TO BLSN/DRSN MAY LEAD TO HEADLINES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COLD WEEK IN STORE AS A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA RESULTS IN MEAN TROUGHING CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY EXTENDING
OVER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. PATTERN DOES NOT HOLD MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW. BEST CHANCE OF THAT MAY ACTUALLY
COME FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
WITH POOR VISIBILITY WILL BE MAIN ISSUE. APPEARED THAT MODERATION IN
THE CHILL WOULD START TO DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE TROUGHING AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS A LASTING TREND.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER THAT JUSTIFIES ANY TYPE OF HEADLINES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LIKELY WILL BE TIED TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND POOR VSBY.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEADLINES WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
NW FLOW AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WILL ALSO GIVE AN HONORABLE MENTION
FOR WSW FLOW ON TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AS THOUGH THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT IT COULD NEED
A HEADLINE IF IT OCCURS. SUPPOSE THERE ALSO COULD BE NEED FOR WIND
CHILL ADVYS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ATTM IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SURE THING THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND/OR MORE IN
TERMS OF LAKE MODERATION ON TEMPS.

NO REAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND WEAK LES AS INVERSIONS ARE WELL BLO 5KFT.
PLENTY COLD WITH TEMPS AT INVERION TOP BLO -20C. SLR/S ON THE
HIGHER/FLUFFY SIDE SO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR
MAINLY NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE WEAKENING WINDS...MESOLOW
FORMATION REMAINS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ADD
TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND PICTURED ROCKS LAKESHORE...SO LOOKING AT AU TRAIN
AND MUNISING AREAS. AWAY FM THE LES...TEMPS FALL WELL BLO ZERO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
LAKE MODERATION/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...WIND CHILLS WILL MAINLY STAY
HIGHER THAN 20 BLO. SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
LES OVER ALGER COUNTY BUT WILL INCREASE IT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

WESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW LES HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE KEWEENAW. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION AT LEAST TO 5KFT AND
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. NAM SHARPER WITH TROUGH AND
BACKS WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAVIER LES OFFSHORE OF KEWEENAW. GFS AND
ECMWF NOT AS BACKED WITH WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS
ON THE KEWEENAW AND MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TROUGH SINKS OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH DAY ON TUESDAY...
SPREADING THE LES TO NW FLOW SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHGAN...
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS UP TO 6-8 KFT
IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO -25C BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. SETUP WILL THEN FAVOR A PUSH OF HEAVIER LES AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SMALL SNOWFLAKE/LOW VSBY LES
REGIME FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLYR WINDS INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO 25-30 KTS
SO BLSN AND DRSN WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE IS BUILT UP ALONG THE SHORELINE.

AWAY FM THE LES THE MAIN THEME WILL BE COLD. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS 10 TO 20 BLO ZERO. AS TEMPS FALL OFF WELL BLO ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...MAY SEE WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY COME CLOSE TO ADVY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
SLACKENING BY THIS TIME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF CWA. A BIT OF MODERATION ON THURSDAY FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS
NEARING 10 DEGREES OR REACHING THE LOWER TEENS. BLYR WINDS BACK SW
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES FM
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THE
LES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE UPPER LAKES WILL BE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SFC TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT CRASH TOO MUCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC-H85 FRONT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ON NOSE OF H3 JET STREAK COMBINE
TO SPREAD SWATH OF SNOW OVER MOST OF UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. TIMING MAY SHIFT AROUND SOME THOUGH CONSIDERING THIS
SOLUTION IN THE MODELS IS NEWER DEVELOPMENT. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL
WORK FOR NOW WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THEN MORE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY WITH DEVELOPING NE FLOW LES IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC AT SAW
AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE WILL ALLOW A
FEW GUSTS TO REACH 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDA NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC


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