Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 231723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST MOVES AWAY
AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WEST OF RAPID CITY SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. WITH LIGHT WIND
AGAIN TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CWA AND LEFT
THAT IN THE FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A
PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY (VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE ONLY TWO PERIODS OF
CONCERN WITH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER BRUSHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT THE BEST ENERGY WITH THE WAVE TO BE TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT COULD PUSH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P. AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WESTERN U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE WEST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
DISSIPATING IT OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE GFS RUNNING IT
THROUGH THE CWA. THINK SLOWLY DROPPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE
PLAINS WL INVADE UPR MI LATE TNGT/WED...DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HI PRES WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HIGH STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIGHER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




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