Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 062320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES AND CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS. AS MIXING
STOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AND
WILL GO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB


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