Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
505 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR AREA MAY PRODUCE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...START OF THE SHIFT
BROUGHT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT QUICKLY
DISSIPATED ONCE THEY MOVED NORTH TO SANTA CRUZ AND SAN CLARA
COUNTIES. AFTER A COUPLE OF QUITE HOURS CELLS STARTED TO FIRE
AGAIN ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES WITH MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING PLUS SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
OVER THE PAST HOUR THE TREND HAS REVERSED AGAIN WITH CELLS
DISSIPATING IN OUR CWA. LARGER VIEW SHOWS CELLS TO OUR WEST AND
EAST WHICH ARE MOVING TO THE NNW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH SOME LATER AFTERNOON HEATING FROM
LACK OF CLOUD COVER. SWING SHIFT MAY WANT TO END EVERYTHING EARLY
IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DO NOT FORM.

OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITED SHOWERS A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE PLUS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HELPED TO LOWER TEMPS TODAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...ARE RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL END UP BEING
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S
FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
STARTING OVERNIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARD OUR
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND. NEAR THE COAST MOST PLACES BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER SAN FRANCISCO AND THE NORTH BAY AREA. THE FORT
ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER HOLDING STRONG AT A DEPTH
OF AROUND 2000 FEET. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 54
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND 63 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...SO PRETTY MOIST.
THE MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND GENTLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE TERMINALS QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS MONTEREY AND SALINAS WILL ALSO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH BKN-OVC010 IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BY
0700Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z. FIRST
GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN012 AT MONTEREY WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO OVC007 BY AROUND 0300Z AND FURTHER DETERIORATE TO
3SM BR OVC003 BY 0600Z. SALINAS IS ALREADY OVC012 AND CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY... ESPECIALLY AROUND ANGEL ISLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: DRP


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