Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
424 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm conditions will persist inland through the
remainder of the week as high pressure remains over the west.
Meanwhile, cooler temperatures will continue near the coast as a
result of weak onshore flow. Slight cooling is expected over the
weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the Pacific
Northwest Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:15 AM PDT Thursday...Low clouds have filled
in solidly along the coast from Seattle south to Point Conception.
The marine layer depth remains shallow, around 1000 feet per the
Fort Ord profiler, but an onshore flow has pushed the stratus
into the Salinas Valley as well as portions of the North Bay
Valleys. Satellite fog product is also showing some high clouds
currently developing over the central third of the cwa, from San
Benito county north into the South and East Bay. Still keeping an
eye on increasing mid and upper level moisture spreading north
into Central and Northern California.

Meanwhile, the high pressure ridge that has built into Southern
and Central California from the Desert Southwest, will continue to
bring hot temperatures to inland areas today with high
temperatures expected to be only slightly less hot than those on
Wednesday, ranging from the 80s to around 100 in the warmest
areas. Near-coastal locations will continue to be mainly in the
60s, cooled by the marine influence and onshore flow. Similar
conditions are expected on Friday.

By Saturday, an approaching upper level trough will being to bring
some cooler air into the area with high temperatures across inland
areas cooling by 5 to 10 degrees over the weekend. Coastal areas
will still see highs mainly in the 60s. The cooling trend will
then continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:17 AM PDT Thursday...A slight increase in
stratus coverage early this morning compared to yesterday. There
is also a SCT deck sitting around 12-15k feet. Fog continues to
impact Monterey Bay with low clouds at KSTS. Expecting mostly VFR
by this afternoon with poss smoke once again.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR for the most part. The tricky/low conf part
is a BKN006 entering the Bay. KOAK went BKN006 briefly but now
back to SCT. High clouds overhead are making it difficult to see
the low clouds as well. Therefore, cannot completely rule out a
passing low cig this morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR to poss VLIFR for MRY and SNS
through this morning. VFR this afternoon with poss FU and HZ. Cigs
return tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...as of 3:15 AM PDT Thursday...Warm and dry
conditions will continue through Friday, especially at elevations
above 1500 feet as high pressure remains over the area. Weak
onshore flow will persist along the coast with light and variable
to light southerly winds over the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los
Padres National Forest through the morning, becoming westerly by the
afternoon. Winds aloft will remain out of the south which will
transport the smoke associated with the Soberanes Fire to the
north over the Monterey Bay and across the Bay Area. Warm and dry
conditions will continue to impact firefighting efforts into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:27 AM PDT Thursday...Northerly winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a stagnant weather pattern
remains in place. Winds will be strongest over the northern outer
waters and north of the Bay Bridge. A mixed swell will continue in
the coastal waters. A longer period southwest swell arrives later
in the week as a tropical storm weakens.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...SF Bay
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
FIRE WEATHER: Sims


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