Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280237
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
737 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures can be expected today
with a very gradual warming trend through Friday as a ridge
builds into our region. Outside of drizzle, dry weather the next
7 days with night and morning coastal clouds followed by sunny
afternoons is forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 7:37 PM PDT Tuesday...An onshore wind
continues this evening with a weak upper level trough residing
over NorCal. Average temperatures today were within two to three
degrees of normal for this day; it was a nice late June day in the
Bay Area. Low clouds will continue to spread inland tonight as
the marine layer is nearly 3,000 feet deep. Otherwise not too
much change indicated for the near term.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 1:03 PM PDT Tuesday...Visible satellite
shows the morning stratus continuing to clear out across most
inland areas. A few locations remain impacted with low clouds as
of 1 pm PDT, including San Francisco and Oakland Airports. The San
Francisco to Sacramento surface pressure gradient has increased
slightly from what it was at 24 hours ago (2.6 mb vs. 2.1 mb), and
the marine layer is a bit deeper between 2,000 and 2,500 ft.
Expect skies to continue to improve through the middle of the
afternoon.

Synoptically we still have an upper level high centered over Baja
California that is enabling hot and dry conditions to persist
over the southern third of the Golden State. Closer to our area,
temperatures are much cooler than they were several days ago with
zonal flow overhead and onshore flow. Expect temperatures to reach
the upper 50s to the low 70s along the coast, and 70s to middle
80s across the inland valleys and mountains. The Santa Lucia
Range, southern Salinas Valley, and Pinnacles National Park areas
will likely see temperatures max out in the upper 80s to the low
90s this afternoon.

On Wednesday temperatures will nudge upward a few degrees for most
inland areas as high pressure begins to rebuild over the West
Coast. This gradual warming trend will continue through Friday
with temperatures within a few degrees of normal for the end of
June. Coastal areas may see subtle warming through the end of the
week, but by only several degrees at most. Models are advertising
a short wave trough to push onshore for the weekend that would
bring some cooling to the area. Aside the isolated coastal drizzle
associated with morning marine stratus, dry conditions are
expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:43 PM PDT Tuesday...For 00z TAFs. Widespread
low clouds prevail across the coastal waters at this hour. Low
cloud will push inland this evening and overnight bringing cigs to
area terminals. Cigs anticipated to lift around 16z-17z Wednesday
morning. Moderate onshore flow will persist through this evening
then diminish overnight.

Moderate confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR currently over terminals. MVFR cigs may
drift over the terminals over the next several hours before IFR
cigs fill in. Have included tempo groups to account for this. Cigs
anticipated to clear around 17z Wednesday morning. Moderate
onshore flow around 15-20 kt with gust to around 25 kt will
persist through this evening then diminish overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR over terminals. MVFR cigs
may move in and out over the terminals over the next few hours
before cigs fill in. Have included tempo groups to account for
this. Cigs are anticipated to lower to IFR after 06z then LIFR
after 08z. Anticipated skies to clear around 17z Wednesday
morning. Moderate onshore flow around 15 kt with gust to around
20 kt will persist through this evening then diminish overnight.

IFR cigs quickly clearing around MRY.
Should be CLR at all Monterey Bay terminals by 18-1830z. Breezy
and occasionally gusty west winds 12-14kt this afternoon. Early
return of stratus for MRY, around 03z, and SNS around 06z.

&&

.MARINE...as of 07:09 PM PDT Tuesday...High pressure will continue
to build into the Eastern Pacific through the rest of the week. As
such, moderate to strong northerly winds will continue to increase
over the waters and bays through  the majority of the forecast
period. Southerly swell and wind driven waves will dominate and
persist through Wednesday morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Canepa/Rowe
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BAM


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