Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281122
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A relatively mild weekend is in store, with only small precipitation
chances affecting parts of northeast Nebraska from time to time.

Upper air pattern will feature a general northwest flow regime
across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa through Sunday. Sprawling
ridge in the southwestern states is expected to slowly expand north
into the Pacific Northwest and east into the Central Plains, but
maximum warming should remain just to our west this weekend.

Meanwhile, a weak mid level ripple will drift into the High Plains
later today and may spark elevated thunderstorms across central
Nebraska tonight into Saturday morning. Some of this activity could
approach western parts of northeast Nebraska. Then a somewhat
stronger shortwave rolling through the faster mid level flow across
the Northern Plains will induce low level theta-e advection into
central and northeast Nebraska Saturday night. A slight chance for
thunderstorms will result in our northern and western CWA as low
level jet strengthens overnight. Some redevelopment is possible
Sunday afternoon in northeast Nebraska where low level moisture
maximum will reside under slightly cooler mid level temperatures,
yielding MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg.

Otherwise temperatures should average the low to mid 80s for
highs and 60s for lows right through the weekend. Surface high
pressure centered over Wisconsin is forecast to remain in place
through the weekend, with westward extent over eastern Nebraska
today providing low level easterly flow. Western side of surface
high will gradually erode Saturday and Sunday, allowing surface
flow to turn southeast then south. However 850 temps remain in the
middle teens through Sunday, suggesting little change in surface
temperatures from day to day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Overall upper flow pattern is expected to amplify a bit through the
week as a broad trough develops over the eastern half of the
country, while ridging remains in the west. This pattern places our
area under northwest to north mid level flow, and occasional ripples
in that flow bringing a few rain chances. However, timing of those
systems will be hard to time this far out, thus confidence is low as
far as precipitation is concerned. What we can say is no significant
warming trends are in the offing as reinforcing shots of mild air
filter south. Monday and Tuesday appear to be the warmest before
there is some model agreement on a cold front dragging cooler air
into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. For now, will maintain
high temperatures in the 80s through the week, but could see
highs closer to 90 on Tuesday and closer to 80 by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...DEE


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