Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 251421
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
321 AM SST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F WAS CENTERED
NEAR 10.3S 172.4W OR ABOUT 260 NM (300 SM) NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO...MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST SLOWLY. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL
THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE EXISTING DISTURBANCE. THE LATEST GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 05F CROSSING THE LATITUDE 10S AS IT CONTINUES
TO ASCEND PAST THE TOKELAU REGION. THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS ARE NOT FOLLOWING
CLOSELY.

CURRENTLY...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVEN MECHANISM IMPACTING THE SAMOAN
REGION IS THE TRADE-WIND REGIME. THE ASCAT SWATH FROM 25/0900 UTC
SHOWS SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST ZONES. A
MONSOON TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS NEAR
THE TOKELAU ISLANDS. TWO INTERESTING COMPONENTS THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE FUTURE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF 05F ARE THE MOVEMENT OF AN
EXISTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F NEAR THE COOK ISLANDS AND THE
LONGEVITY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INTACT AS IT LATCHES TO TD 03F
AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION
BRINGS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER SAVAII EASTWARD STARTING TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF FREQUENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F. WILL PROVIDE
NEW UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
A WET FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WET SPELL IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F WILL MOVE PAST THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND FREQUENT
SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SUGGEST
THAT 05F WILL DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NIUE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER STARTING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE PACIFIC ISLANDS OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM (PACIOOS)
BUOY NEAR AUNUU INDICATED THAT THE SEAS HAVE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED TO
NEAR 9 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COMBINED WEATHER PHENOMENONS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM FCST PERIODS WILL
INFLUENCE LOCAL SEAS AND SURFS TO REMAIN AT HAZARDOUS HEIGHTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURFS AND
SMALL CRAFTS ARE MANDATORY TO MIRROR THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

$$

BAQUI






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