Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 262124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS... IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 90S...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ON THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AOA 528DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THREATEN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMALS...DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST SOLN...TAKING A
STRONGER/MORE CLOSED LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BRIEFLY PUSHING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THE FACT THAT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.60 INCH...WITH ALMOST ALL MOISTURE REMAINING AOA
600MB. THE EURO AND GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
DRIER...WITH BOTH ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT SINGLE-DIGIT POP
AND NEAR-90 HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR CWA IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS MAINLY
IN A 575-579DM RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SHIES...AND HIGHS
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...SOUTHEAST  CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19Z FRI.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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