Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 242152
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
251 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle over the region
through Friday. Clear skies will lead to cold morning temperatures.
High temperatures will also remain below normal. A high pressure
system is forecast to re-build into region late Sunday through
Tuesday for a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

The few instability snow showers that developed over the mountains
north through east of Phoenix will diminish this evening, leading to
mostly clear skies lasting into the weekend. Otherwise a broad cold
airmass will continue to settle over the region through
Saturday providing below normal temperatures.


Sunday through Tuesday...

A high pressure system will develop over the region this period.
Mostly clear skies are still expected along with a warming trend.


&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA,and KSDL and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns anticipated through the TAF period, as skies
will become more clear and precipitation chances will shift eastward
into the higher terrain east of the Phoenix area.

Although skies will be significantly clearer than the past several
days, another weak disturbance will push across our region this
afternoon, allowing ceilings to become sct-bkn aoa 5-8 kft between
now and 12Z tomorrow. Major clearing will occur after this time
frame, with clear skies anticipated after 12Z.

Over Phoenix terminals, winds will remain light and out of the west
through late this evening, before shifting to a light easterly. Over
southeast California terminals, winds will remain light and out of
the west.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Thursday through Monday: Cool dry northwest flow aloft will settle
into the area Thursday for generally sunny skies; high temperatures
will be well below seasonal normals. For Friday into the weekend,
high pressure aloft builds along the west coast allowing a dry
system to dive south across the desert southwest. This will be a dry
system allowing humidity levels to fall but keeping temperatures on
the cool side. Strong gusty north winds will develop over the
western Arizona and far southeast California deserts Friday into
Saturday with strongest gusts along the lower Colorado River Valley.
Although humidities do fall, minimum RH values typically remain 15-
20 percent over the lower deserts through the weekend. High pressure
will remain to the west Sunday into Monday keeping dry north flow
aloft across the area and allowing high temperatures to finally
climb back near seasonal normals with warmer deserts into the low
70s by Monday. Winds will decrease Sunday into Monday but remain
locally breezy out of the north over the western deserts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB



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