Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 010200 AAB
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
700 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDING DOWN OF STORMS AND CLOUDS. LATEST RADAR
SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTION NEAR SUSANVILLE FINALLY WINDING DOWN. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN SOUTHERN
LYON AND NORTHWEST MINERAL COUNTIES AS CONVERGENCE ALONG ZEPHYR
HELPS MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM. HAVE PULLED THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO-CARSON CITY AREA. UPDATES WILL ALSO
INCLUDE SMOKE FOR NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE H-1 AND DAY FIRES CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH FIRE WAS GETTING PUSHED OVER THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MONO COUNTY. WEB CAMS, AN AIR
QUALITY SITE AND THE PUBLIC INDICATE THE SMOKE IS QUITE HEAVY IN
THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SMOKE FOR
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 395
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES SOUTH TO BISHOP AND THE MAMMOTH YOSEMITE AIRPORT.
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS WITH
THE WINDOWS SHUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOTORISTS AND AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA INTO
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP NEAR 450 MB HAS HELPED
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE BROKEN
THROUGH. OVERALL, THE STORMS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. IT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG WITH 500 MB WINDS ONLY 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR APPARENT ON THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A WEAK AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR. EXPECT THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE TO ONLY SEE CUMULUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD/SCT STORMS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE WET/DRY HYBRIDS THAN THE WET STORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ZEPHYR FROM THE PINE NUTS UP THROUGH
PYRAMID LAKE.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, MORE DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER
TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THESE
CHANGES PRIMARILY CONCERN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE
FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 30% AS A WAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MEANWHILE, TRIMMED COVERAGE FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ELIMINATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW`S TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS. LATE
IN THE WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FINALLY, WITH MORE TRIGGER MECHANISMS AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SIERRA LOCATIONS WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER DESPITE
INDICATIONS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WHICH USUALLY PUSH
CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA INTO NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER, IF CIRRUS ANVILS INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS PAST WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP AND ABOUT
40% AT KTRK-KTVL. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
KSVE, AND SOUTH OF KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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