Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 302133
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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