Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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