Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSGX 022033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...COOLER AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES. CLOSER TO SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 02/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-
TERM...AND DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE LONG-TERM.

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...A WEAK LOW AROUND 115 MILES
SW OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN TX.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER THE AREA.

LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS...AND NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
AND HIGH DESERTS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP DEVELOP
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OF 5 TO 7 MB FROM THE COAST TO THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
CREATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS SW CA.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
TO ALMOST ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL CREATE NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...A MODERATE MARINE
LAYER WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
022027Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING THROUGH 03/0000 UTC. 03/0000-1500
UTC...OVC STRATUS FILLING IN 30-50 SM INLAND...WITH BASES 2000-3000
FT MSL AND TOPS 3500-4000 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CIG
HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH OF AROUND 7 DEG C EXPECTED.
CLEARING OF STRATUS DURING THE 03/1500-1900 UTC TIME-FRAME.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
127 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
127 PM...SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES WILL CONTINUE AT
THE SO-CAL BEACHES TODAY...PRODUCING LOCAL 3 TO 5 FOOT SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SOUTH SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY..BEFORE A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL
ARRIVES AT THE BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.