Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 120436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CALM WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING BACK TO
THE COAST BY MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A BUMP UP IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK
INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATER CHANCES FOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FADE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS
EVENING...CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVE IS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO...AND WILL BRING INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE NEAR CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...WHICH WILL BE
A KEY PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY...IS ENHANCING THE
MONSOON OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER
THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TONIGHTS THICKER HIGH CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THEM SHIFTS TO OUR
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 400 MB.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO TICK UPWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ARRIVING IN OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AS A THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REDEVELOPS OVER GUADALAJARA AND PUSHES TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER BAJA. MOISTURE ARRIVES IN TIME TO BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BRING PW VALUES OF GREATER
THAN 1.25 INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS BEING SAID...INSTABILITY MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

UPSWING IN MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH PW
VALUES APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. TUESDAY APPEARS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIATIONS THIS IS SUBJECT TO SOME CHANGE.
ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE EASTERLY FOLLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME DETACHED FROM THE TERRAIN. NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS POSSIBILTY
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LINGER FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATLY REDUCED
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO FADE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
120400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH
09Z AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD INLAND 20-30 SM BY 12Z. BASES WILL BE
1300-1600 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 2000 FT MSL. LOCAL SFC VIS BELOW
2 MI WILL OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM.
THERE IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL NOT REACH
KONT. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS 15-17Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCT AFTER
07Z TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCT AFTER 07Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7 FEET FOR THE
OPEN COAST-LINE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENINGS THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW OF
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TIDES SHOULD LOWER ENOUGH BY
MONDAY FOR THE TIDAL FLOODING THREAT TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BA/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL








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