Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 270407
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SOUTH SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE MARIE WILL BRING
LARGE...DANGEROUS SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING
SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HELPED KICK OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE COACHELLA VALLEY IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST INTO UTAH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE HURRICANE MARIE IS LARGE BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EVEN SO...VERY
LARGE WAVES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM HURRICANE MARIE.
FOR MORE ON THE SWELL FROM MARIE PLEASE SEE THE "BEACHES" SECTION
BELOW. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE PREDOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW
REGIME WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND DRIVEN BY A SHALLOW BUT STRONG
DIURNAL MARINE INTRUSION. UNDER THE EXPANDING HIGH PRES REGIME
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL PICK UP DUE TO A WAVE PASSING THROUGH CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG PAC NW LOW. ALTHOUGH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...THE INCREASED ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND OF COURSE
INCREASE THE EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...
270330Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH CIGS
NOT EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. PATCHY CLOUDS THAT DO FORM
WOULD HAVE BASES AROUND 1000-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 1500 FT MSL.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS ARRIVED IN THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY REPORTING SWELLS
OF 9.8 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS AT 8 PM PDT. SWELL HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD A LITTLE MORE...PEAKING A LITTLE OVER 10 FEET TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER
SWELL PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SWELL COULD STILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS ARRIVED AT THE
BEACHES OF ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IF THE SWELL LASTS LONG
ENOUGH TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...HIGH SURF MAY IMPACT MORE OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS
SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND SURF ZONE
FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG






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