Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 292355
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
755 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The moist easterly flow continues with some scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms still moving across the region. Most of the
convection will wind down by midnight, but cannot rule out a stray
shower moving west into Polk or Highlands counties overnight. Also
could see a few showers affect the southwest coast toward morning
as the flow begins to shift to southeast to south. For Tuesday
expect to see a similar pattern to today with scattered to
numerous convection developing by midday. The exception will be
that the winds will be shifting to a more southeast to south
direction across the entire area so the convection that develops
will be moving quickly toward the northwest to north. Overall the
current grids/zone forecast look ok with no evening update
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will wind down by
midnight with mainly VFR conditions prevailing into Tuesday
morning. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible once daytime heating
gets underway Tuesday morning and then MVFR/local IFR conditions
will be possible in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The breezy easterly flow will persist tonight then shift to a
more southeast to south direction as TD #9 to moves further west
during Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will become southerly
during Wednesday and Wednesday night and begin to increase as the
system moves toward the northern waters. Tropical storm conditions
will become possible late Wednesday night and continue Thursday,
especially across the northern waters close to the track of the
system. For now the current forecast looks on track with no major
changes planned for evening update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  89  77  85 /  30  70  60  80
FMY  76  86  77  87 /  40  80  60  70
GIF  75  89  75  86 /  20  80  40  80
SRQ  77  88  77  85 /  40  70  70  70
BKV  75  91  75  86 /  20  70  60  80
SPG  78  89  78  85 /  40  70  70  80

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
UPPER AIR...007/Dougherty
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming



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