Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281306
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
906 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Just some minor tweaks to rainfall chances needed this
morning. A few showers and thunderstorms are moving in
along the Nature Coast from the Gulf, and a small area of
showers and storms have developed along the southwest coast
of Lee county. These showers over the Nature Coast will
likely continue to move inland and be east of our area by
this afternoon. The showers over Lee County will only drift
very slowly northward as they are sitting under the deep-
layered ridge. These will eventually be pushed slowly inland
with increasing coverage this afternoon as the sea breeze
develops and pushes east.

Precipitable waters on 12Z soundings are still running
below normal for late July, with TAE coming in at 1.46 and
TBW and MFL at 1.67 and 1.68 respectively. This should delay
the increase in coverage until mid-afternoon, with most
activity occurring along and east of the sea breeze boundary
as it pushes steadily inland. Highest coverage this
afternoon should be in Highlands county where where the west
coast sea breeze may interact with a weak lake breeze from
lake Okeechobee.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Brief TSRA possible for FMY and RSW as
sea breeze pushes east. LAL may also see a few storms this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light southwest flow expected today as surface
ridge axis sinks south of the waters. Winds and seas will be
higher near isolated storms today, and there will be some
enhancement to the winds near the coast as the sea breeze
circulation strengthens around mid-day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  81  90  80 /  10  10  20  40
FMY  93  77  93  78 /  20  10  20  30
GIF  95  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
SRQ  91  81  90  80 /  10  10  20  40
BKV  93  76  92  77 /  10  10  20  40
SPG  91  81  90  79 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
UPPER AIR...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn



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