Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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459
FXUS62 KTBW 291651
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1251 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms diminishing near the coast north of Venice as storms
move inland. Outflow boundaries from interior convection will give
coastal counties another round of storms later this afternoon and
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
Upper level ridge axis over central Florida this afternoon will
drift into northern Florida Saturday as an upper tropospheric trough
moves into Cuba.

Water Vapor satellite loop showed slightly drier air rotating around
the upper level ridge into central Florida. Much of the activity for
the rest of the afternoon expected to be in interior counties and is
the area where very heavy rains and wind gusts greater than 40 mph
can be expected.

Interior storms to push out outflow boundaries this evening that can
spark another round of showers and thunderstorms along the coastal
counties. Also, late night showers and storms expected along the
coast.

The surface ridge axis will be further north Saturday and will bring
the Atlantic Coast sea breeze front further inland north of
Interstate 4 as compared to the last week or so. Relatively low
afternoon rain chances north of Brooksville this afternoon will be
on the increase Saturday afternoon.

Normal temperatures for this time of year range from lows in the low
to mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Forecast temperatures to
remain several degrees above this.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)... The upper level ridging that
has been parked over the peninsula for the past several days will
slightly weaken late Saturday into Sunday as an upper level trough
moves over the Bahamas toward Florida. The trough moves east and
weakens by Monday as ridging builds into the Gulf of Mexico. This
upper level pattern will continue until the end of next week. On the
surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges west southwest over
Florida and will produce a light east southeast wind flow over the
east coast and interior counties. There is also a secondary high
center in the eastern Gulf of Mexico that will keep a variable wind
flow around 5-7 knots over the coastal waters and counties. By
Monday morning, this high shifts slightly north which will bring the
variable winds farther north over the nature coast and east
southeast winds over the rest of the region from Tampa Bay
southward. Rain and storm chances will remain between 40-60 percent
each day except Monday and Friday when slightly more dry air briefly
filters into the area keeping the POPS in the 20-40 percent
neighborhood. Temperatures will continue to run a couple of degrees
above average through the period with high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s each day and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Atmosphere is moist and unstable, unlike yesterday. Weak sea
breeze front combined with thunderstorm outflow boundaries to put
the best chance of storms east of all terminals except Lakeland.
Will keep VCTS in TAFs until 02Z. Isolated storms possible near
the coast overnight and Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge axis across the central waters will move into the
northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend then remain there. Southeast
flow to increase the coverage of storms overnight starting Tuesday
night. Winds to remain 15 knots or less and seas 4 feet or less.
Thunderstorms may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High dew points across west central and southwest Florida will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  91  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
FMY  78  92  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  77  95  76  94 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  79  90  77  92 /  10  40  20  40
BKV  76  92  74  94 /  10  40  20  40
SPG  80  91  80  91 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/Noah
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn



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