Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231237
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
737 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Warm and humid conditions to continue. Some patchy dense
fog over the northern Nature Coast this morning to burn off
and mix out shortly. Low level moisture advecting over the
southern half of the area from the SE FL and the Gulf Stream
under 5-7k ft inversion producing some scattered to broken
clouds. 12Z sounding showing this moisture and steering
flow while the atmosphere remains very dry aloft. Late this
afternoon still slight chance of light low topped diurnal
and seabreeze convergence showers in southern and coastal
areas. Latest grids and forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
VRF conditions expected at TAF sites rest of today with a
SCT-BKN 050-070 cloud deck.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 238 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

..Record High Temperatures Again Possible Today...
..Above Normal Temperatures To Continue Through The Weekend...

SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
Not much change in the forecast is expected during the short
term period. Deep upper level troughing over the western
U.S. will maintain deep layered ridging over the Atlantic
and Florida through the period with a deep layered southeast
wind flow persisting across the forecast area. The ongoing
weather pattern will continue to support very warm
temperatures with more record high temperatures possible
today. Adequate low level moisture coupled with daytime
heating may allow for a few low topped showers (Pops 20
percent) to develop during the afternoon with slightly
better chances Saturday afternoon via hi-res models (Pops 20
to 30 percent) as the suppression from the upper ridge
weakens some and the sea breeze becomes more pronounced.
Some patchy fog will continue to be possible, mainly during
the late night and early morning hours the next few days, with
the best coverage likely to be in the fog prone areas across
the Nature Coast counties.

Temperatures will remain well above normal with some
additional record highs possible today. See the climate
section below for record high information for today. High
temperatures today and again on Saturday will climb into the
lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland with
lows tonight in the lower 60s across the Nature Coast, and
mid to upper 60s central and south.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Saturday night - Thursday)...
Long wave troughing dominates over the Western states as a
series of short wave troughs eject northeast or east across
the central then eastern U.S. Meanwhile an elongated
ridge...southwest-northeast across FL...slowly re-locates
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface the short wave troughs mentioned earlier will
push a frontal boundary into the eastern states...stretching
along the Gulf coast and east to the southeast U.S. coastal
waters by Mon. This boundary slowly settles down across FL
and weakens through midweek. High pressure near Bermuda
continues through the rest of the weekend with a ridge axis
initially westward along Latitude 30 that pivots down into
FL by Mon...in response to the frontal boundary. During
early to late week the Atlantic ridge drops south of the
state as high pressure moves into the eastern states and
bridges the weakening frontal boundary.

The upper ridging will maintain warm conditions with
temperatures running well above normal...although with a
slight downward trend through the period by a degree or two.
This ridge will also help to limit rainfall. However...low
level flow shifting from southeasterly to southwesterly then
westerly by Mon will result in a modest increase in
moisture...with isolated to occasionally scattered showers.
Slightly higher moisture will pool ahead of and along the
front with similar rain chances through the end of the
period. The high pressure behind the front tracks east
fairly quickly and will provide little in the way of cooler
or drier air.


MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the Atlantic and extending west
southwest across the southeastern states and northern Gulf
coast will maintain southeast winds across the Gulf waters
today, with an onshore sea breeze component developing near
the coast late in the afternoon. Now during the weekend and
into early next week lighter southeast to southwest winds
are expected across the waters as the surface high weakens
and sinks south to lie east to west across the central
Florida peninsula with a more pronounced onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast each afternoon. Winds
and seas should remain below 15 knots and 5 feet through the
period with no marine hazards or headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Sufficient low level moisture will keep humidity values
above critical levels through the weekend and into early
next week with no red flag conditions expected. Some patchy
fog will continue to be possible during the late night and
early morning hours the next several days, with the best
chances in the fog prone areas of the Nature Coast, but
widespread visibility restrictions are not expected.

CLIMATE...
Here are some record high temperatures for today and the
year they were set.

Brooksville        85 2013
Tampa              87 1949
Lakeland           87 2013
ST Petersburg      85 1962
Sarasota           86 1962
Fort Myers         89 1962

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  84  68  84  69 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  86  67  85  66 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  86  66  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
SRQ  84  68  85  66 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  86  64  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  83  69  82  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...63/Jillson



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