Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 021936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...WITH FLORIDA RESIDING IN A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP...AND CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN MOSTLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. TUESDAY WILL SHAPE UP SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN ASCENT AND INCREASE SHEAR ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH...FORECAST AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE ON WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE THREAT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP...AND COULD CAUSE REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION INCREASES...MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL USHER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY...AND LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ERC VALUES AND WIND
SPEEDS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...AND
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH COULD CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN COUNTIES WHERE ERC VALUES RISE HIGH ENOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING/JILLSON
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN



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