Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
FXUS62 KTBW 250721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
321 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tuesday)...
A highly amplified flow pattern continues this morning
across the CONUS with deep troughing over the western states
and Rockies, and large scale upper ridging extending from
the Great Lakes and New England south to the Southern Plains
and Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the pronounced upper storm
over the west, Hurricane Maria is the only feature of note
this morning. Despite Maria remaining well north and east of
the Florida peninsula, subtle changes in the surface
pressure pattern as a result of Maria`s motion will drive
local weather over the next couple of days.

A weak upper low continues to spin over the northern Gulf
of Mexico this morning. At the surface, high pressure
remains north of the region with persistent light
east/northeast flow. As the flow becomes a bit more
northerly later this afternoon, drier air will begin to
slowly invade from the north. This combined with weak
subsidence/sinking motion on the western fringes of Maria
should yield lesser coverage of showers and storms this
afternoon. Still, a low chance of a few showers and an
isolated storm will persist. Odds will be greater over
interior sections of the peninsula this afternoon, where
east/west coast seabreezes collide amidst a very weak
pressure gradient. Showers and storms may linger into the
evening before diminishing. Highs will be similar to
yesterday in the lower 90s most areas, except near the coast
where upper 80s can be expected.

For Tuesday, dry air will continue to spill into the
region, with most areas expected to remain dry through the
day. There may be just enough moisture over south Florida
for a stray shower or thunderstorm, but coverage will be
very limited. Highs may be a touch warmer as lesser cloud
cover and drier air allow for more efficient heating, but
lower to possibly mid 90s will generally be the rule across
the region.

.Mid/Long Term (Tuesday Night through next Monday)...
Drier air will remain in place across the area on Wednesday
with rain chances pretty limited. May be able to squeeze
out a little precip across the far southern zones but looks
like most areas will remain dry. We will begin to see an
increase in moisture on Thursday and this trend will
continue into the weekend with PW values forecast to
increase into the 1.7-2 inch range by the weekend. SCT rain
chances will be mainly limited to SW Florida on Thursday but
by Friday much of the CWA will return to PoPs in the 30-50
percent range and this will continue into the weekend.
Temperatures will top out within a few degrees of 90 daily
with lows in the low to mid 70s.


.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
VFR conditions expected to unfold through the TAF period.
Light northeast winds will become northwesterly during the
afternoon due to the seabreeze, becoming light and variable
again after 00z Tues.


Light east to northeast flow will become more northerly as
high pressure lifts northwest of the region. As the gradient
will remain light, the seabreeze will allow winds to shift
onshore near the coast each afternoon. Dry conditions are
expected much of the coming week, with gradually increasing
rain chances by the weekend. No marine hazards are expected
during this time.


Despite a period of drier weather and warm temperatures
through at least mid week, humidities will remain well above
critical levels. Rain chances will slowly increase late
week into the weekend, and no fire weather concerns are


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  90  76  90 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  76  91  75  90 /  10  20  10  20
GIF  74  92  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
SRQ  75  88  75  88 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  70  91  72  92 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  77  89  77  89 /  10  10   0  10


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.