Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 182204
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
604 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND GONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD POOL...500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14
TO -17 CELSIUS MOVES OVER THE REGION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  50  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  50  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  50  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  50  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...69/CLOSE
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA





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