Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO DRAIN DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.  THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 26.5 FEET THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN 2012. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  77  89  77 / 100  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  40
GIF  86  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SRQ  84  76  89  76 / 100  30  40  20
BKV  83  74  89  73 / 100  40  50  20
SPG  82  78  89  78 / 100  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN



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