Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 241937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHLANDS COUNTY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RETURNS NOTED. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PART OF THE PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
OF AROUND TAMPA BAY (UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION INITIATES)
AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTH OF THE BAY. THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE AND OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN SHIFTING INLAND AS
THE SEA BREEZE PROPOGATES EASTWARD.

&&


.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO CONTINUE...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. SUNDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG U/L
TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LATE NIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES...BUT THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AND WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW AND
UPDATE IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY...STARTING FIRST AT THE
COAST AND THEN MOVING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR EACH
DAY...WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  30
FMY  76  93  77  93 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  76  93  75  95 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  76  91  78  90 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  72  92  74  93 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  80  91  81  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.