Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 312330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

This afternoon the closed mid-level low was centered over the
Dakotas with water vapor imagery showing a couple of embedded waves
across southern Kansas and Missouri. Surface low pressure was
centered over the area with the cold front stretched across north
central Kansas as of early this afternoon. Models show this front
slowly progressing eastward across the forecast area this afternoon
into early this evening, and this boundary may provide enough
forcing and lift to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms
across portions of northeast and east central Kansas. With dewpoints
in the low/mid 60s ahead of the front, surface-based CAPE of 1000-
2000 J/kg was present.  However, 0-6km bulk shear values remain
relatively weak and may only reach up to 20-25kts at best this
afternoon into early evening. As a result, the potential for strong
to severe storms is low, however cannot completely rule out the
potential for an isolated stronger storm. If a strong storm is able
to develop, the main hazards would be hail and some gusty winds.
Short-range models have been trending more toward any thunderstorm
development being quite isolated to scattered, and any storms that
develop should diminish in coverage this evening with a slight
chance for isolated precipitation in far east central Kansas
overnight into Wednesday as another embedded wave skims just south
of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect most of the forecast area to
be dry on Wednesday as surface high pressure moves into the area
from the north.  Expect cloud cover to diminish across north central
and far northern Kansas overnight with the exiting system, resulting
in low temperatures tonight likely ranging from the mid 50s to low
60s from northwest to southeast. This cloud cover will continue to
scatter out through the day tomorrow, resulting in warmer conditions
and afternoon high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Wednesday night through Friday, the main upper level jet will
remain well to the north of the CWA across the northern US and
southern Canada through the period. A southern stream upper low
will amplify slightly across central TX and slowly shift east. At
this time the deeper moisture and weak ascent will remain just
south of the CWA. I kept 10 to 14 pops across the extreme
southeast counties in case an isolated showers were to develop.
Highs will be around 80 degrees with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Friday night, two upper-level closed lows are noted to the north and
south of the forecast area; one over eastern ND and the other over
eastern Texas, respectively.  A deep ridge will be in place over the
western CONUS.  A slight chance for thunderstorms exists Friday
night into Saturday morning associated with a cold frontal passage,
more notably seen with the GFS than the ECMWF.  From here, the rest
of the period looks to be dry as surface high pressure noses into the
area.  Highs look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s, which is very similar to climatology for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VFR conditions should prevail, but seems to be enough potential
for BR and/or ground fog development around 11Z to keep a mention
going. Crossover temps to be met per temp forecast but this looks
to be on the warm side of guidance with winds staying light and
clouds diminishing.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...65



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