Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 282200
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 PM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will move into the region tonight
bringing lighter winds and slightly warmer temperatures on
Wednesday. Another storm system will bring strong winds and some
precipitation chances to the area Thursday and Friday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Northerly winds will continue to decrease into this evening. As of
this writing, there were still some gusts near 40 mph down the
Colorado River and I have decided to keep the advisory going. The
upper low responsible for the strong winds will continue moving east
as high pressure briefly traverses the area tonight and Wednesday.
Lighter winds are expected Wednesday with slightly warmer
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The next upper trough will move
into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday night, pushing the ridge
east of the area. We may see some increase in mainly high clouds but
precipitation associated with the trough will still be north of the
forecast area through Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

A potent low pressure system still appears on track to bring the
potential for widespread strong to high winds across much of our
region Thursday afternoon through Friday. There is good model
agreement in the track and timing of the base of the trough diving
from northwest Nevada into southern Nevada between 10 AM and 6 PM
PDT Thursday. Given the speed of the system and strong thermal
gradient associated with the cold front, it appears to be a
favorable scenario for a high wind event, both ahead and behind the
cold front. The High Wind Watch previously issued still stands with
a little boost in confidence given the general model agreement. A
belt of southwest-west 850-700 mb winds of 45-60 knots is forecast
by the GFS across San Bernardino, Clark and part of Mohave counties
Thursday afternoon followed by an almost equally strong area of
northwest winds blasting down through south central and southern
Nevada late Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds gusting over 60
mph  may persist across portions of Inyo, Esmeralda and Lincoln
counties Friday while gusts over 40 mph will be possible over
southern Nevada and the Colorado River Valley. Showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms will be primarily over Lincoln and northern
Mohave counties Thursday afternoon and evening.

North winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist through Saturday on the
back side of the exiting low then speeds will become light by
Sunday. Confidence in any details Monday and Tuesday is low as there
is considerable divergence in model solutions. However, it is now
looking like another upstream short wave trough will take a track
more over the Intermountain Region, which would mean less wind for
our area early next week. Temperatures will hold fairly close to
normal except for a dip of several degrees Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...North winds should persist through
tonight but may vary from 320 to 040 at times. Sustained winds will
be around 10 knots through the night but gusts near 20 knots early
this evening should drop off after about 02z. Lighter winds will
develop Wednesday and will primarily be from the northeast. Nothing
more than some high clouds are expected through Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty northwest to north winds will generally 20-30 kts
will persist through early this evening with stronger winds expected
down the Colorado River where gusts could approach 35-40 kts. Winds
will diminish somewhat after about 02z. Most of the area will see
north to northeast winds 10-20 knots Wednesday. Skies will remain
mostly clear with just some high clouds at times through Wednesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Harrison
Long Term...Adair

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