Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 251023
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. ONE MORE
DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...I NUDGED
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A DEGREE OF TWO FROM THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS LAS VEGAS AT 72 FOR A HIGH...JUST A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD. I ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
DEATH VALLEY AFTER THEY REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83F ON
SATURDAY.  GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN OBSERVED SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING.

AFTER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE SLUNG NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THANKS TO A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST. INCREASING
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR INCLUDING LAS VEGAS WILL
BE FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT SO FAR WITH THIS TIMING SO I CONTINUED TO
BUMP POPS UPWARDS ON TONIGHTS SHIFT.  LESS CONSISTENT HAS BEEN MODEL
QPF WHICH VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE
DESERTS (INCLUDING LAS VEGAS)...WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY WARM NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS....HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE IT HARD TO DISCOUNT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SNOWFALL WONT BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM. ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY
WARM...FOR JANUARY...UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW I
KEPT SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY THURSDAY
WITH BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A RIDGE WILL START NOSING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY...PUSHING THE LOW
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD START TO SEE DRYING ACROSS
ESMERALDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...LINCOLN AND NYE
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER BAJA BY SATURDAY WILL GIVE MOHAVE COUNTY THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ANTICIPATING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELD MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 5K FEET BY 6Z
TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER...PARTICULARLY NEAR KIFP AND KEED. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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