Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 092235
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY...BUT WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING...BUT DECREASING...NORTH
WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BLOCK MUCH SUNSHINE DURING THIS WARM
SPELL. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS BUT MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BCCONSMOS. THERE ARE LOW
HANGING RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY FOR FEB
10...74 DEGREES (SET IN 2014) AND 85 DEGREES (SET IN 2015)
RESPECTIVELY. THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR POSSIBLY
BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR SO.

NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AT LAUGHLIN
AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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