Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 031645
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING
IN THE SIERRA THURSDAY AND SPREADING TO MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...A SMALL BAND OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED FROM ABOUT 25 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM NEAR TONOPAH TO TRONA AS OF WRITING. HOWEVER, INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRRUS HAS ENHANCED IN SOME AREAS. THE
SKY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS CURRENTLY
NEAR THE BAND THIS MORNING AND ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN CLARK
COUNTIES FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS MAINLY TO BUMP THEM UP IN LAS
VEGAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 257 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND FORM AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM DISSIPATING
HURRICANE ANDRES WILL BE PULLED UP AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OF THE UPPER LOW INTO ARIZONA. BY FRIDAY...AS THE LOW MEANDERS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE PLUME GETS WRAPPED NORTHWESTWARD
INTO MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. NEARER THE LOW CENTER...THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AND...NOT TO BE LEFT
OUT...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...MORE SO IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PLAY MORE OF A ROLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE DRY SLOT WITHIN THE
SYSTEMS CIRCULATION SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY UP INTO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE DRY-MOIST LINE WILL
BE FAIRLY NEARBY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LINE WILL BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA BOUNDARY LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. I HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER
COMPARED TO THE INHERITED GRIDS (INCLUDING REMOVING MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF LAS VEGAS). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY
SMALL WOBBLE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND WE COULD SEE SOME MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER.

THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST NEVADA/NORTHWEST UTAH. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO ESMERALDA...NORTHERN INYO AND NYE
COUNTIES AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ELSEWHERE...POPS WERE REDUCED AS THE DRY SLOT WITHIN THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF ESMERALDA AND
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY.

BEYOND THIS POINT EYES ARE STILL ON THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM...
HURRICANE BLANCA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
COMPARED TO ANDRES. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD AND
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE ANY REMNANT MOISTURE MIGHT GO...BUT
THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...IF IT MAKES IT HERE AT ALL.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS FRIDAY...AND
A STRAY STORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS OR SHEEP
RANGE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...STRONGEST IN THE EVENINGS IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TODAY...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY...SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...MORGAN/WOLCOTT

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