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FNUS28 KWNS 092023
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

VALID 111200Z - 171200Z

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH...LIMITING THE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE THREAT. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF TSTMS /LIKELY PRIMARILY WET OR A COMBINATION OF WET
AND DRY/ FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN WHERE FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY.

ON D3/FRI...A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GLANCE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES NE AROUND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A THREAT OF TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO OREGON AND PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7-1.1 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THIS
REGION...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY WET...SO NO DRY-TSTM
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DELINEATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED FIRE STARTS WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY.

ON D5/SUN...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE. WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF DRY TSTMS BY
THIS TIME MAY BE HIGHER COMPARED TO D3/FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED FCST
UNCERTAINTY COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO
BE WET PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY-TSTM PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SCENARIO.

..DEAN.. 07/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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