Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262125
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Valid 281200Z - 061200Z

Deep upper trough is expected to extend from central
Alberta/Saskatchewan to the lower CO river valley at the beginning
of the extended period (i.e. 12Z Tuesday). This trough will likely
move eastward across the Rockies and Plains on D3/Tuesday and
through the middle/upper MS and OH valleys on D4/Wednesday. Strong
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this upper trough will extend from
the Southwest states through the middle MS valley on D3/Tuesday
before translating northeastward and strengthening across the OH
valley and Northeast on D4/Wednesday. Some modest troughing will be
maintained in the wake of this system across the upper Great Lakes
on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday while predominately zonal flow persists
across the central and eastern CONUS through D7/Saturday.

...D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday: Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across northern portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough (and
embedded jet streak) on D3/Tuesday. Resulting tight surface pressure
gradient coupled with the strong flow aloft and boundary-layer
mixing is expected to support sustained southwesterly winds from
30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph. Across the northern and central TX
panhandle, model guidance varies on the extent of mid/upper level
cloudiness and its impact on boundary-layer mixing and high
temperatures. Even so, minimum RH values at or below 15-percent are
still probable and the resulting combination of windy and dry
conditions is expected to result in critical fire weather
conditions. Confidence in high-end critical conditions is highest
from the TX South Plains southwestward into far west TX. In these
areas, sustained wind speeds around 40 mph may overlap single-digit
RH values.

A cold front is expected to sweep across the region on D3/Tuesday
night and D4/Wednesday morning. Breezy northerly winds in the wake
of the front in tandem with a continued dry environment will likely
support another day of fire weather conditions across the southern
Plains.

...D5/Thursday-D6/Friday: Southeast/Carolinas...
A dry, post-frontal environment is expected across the region on
D5/Thursday and D6/Friday with some potential for favorable fire
weather conditions if currently progged northwesterly winds near 20
mph are realized (particularly on D6/Friday). However, antecedent
precipitation associated with the frontal passage introduces
uncertainty regarding the fuels and differences within the guidance
on the strength of the winds results in uncertainty regarding the
meteorological conditions as well. As a result, the combination of
low potential and too much uncertainty precludes the introduction
any threat areas with this forecast.

...D6/Friday: Southern/Central Plains...
Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected to contribute to a
tight surface pressure gradient across the southern and central
Plains on D6/Friday. The lack of stronger flow aloft will likely
mitigate the winds speeds somewhat but the anticipated strength of
the gradient should still be enough to support winds strong enough
to support fire weather conditions within the antecedent dry
conditions.

..Mosier.. 02/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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