Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282034
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

A PERSISTENT...HIGH-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER PORTIONS
OF THE WRN STATES...WITH SWLY FLOW ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY FACILITATING
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS. THIS IS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...WITH
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS IMPLY
LOCAL AREAS OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE
MIGRATORY IMPULSES...WHICH COULD LOCALLY/MODESTLY ENHANCE THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES IS LOW.
FURTHERMORE...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AREAS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIMITED
STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES OVER 0.75 INCH COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH
WETTING RAINS IN MANY AREAS. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OWING TO THE OVERLAP OF
LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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