Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 222118
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
Upper pattern at the beginning of the period -- 12Z Friday -- is
expected to feature a mature shortwave trough over the Plains,
centered near the CO/KS border, and another shortwave trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast. The Plains shortwave will gradually shift
eastward across OK and KS on D3/Friday before turning more
northeastward and moving through the middle MS valley on
D4/Saturday. An additional shortwave trough will follow quickly in
the wake first, moving into southern CA and across the Southwest on
D4/Saturday and into the southern/central Plains on D5/Sunday. An
active upper pattern is expected to persist into next week but model
guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday with the ECMWF favoring a
more progressive solution than the GFS. Ensemble solutions show
increasing uncertainty beginning around D6/Monday as well. As a
result, forecast confidence for next week is currently low.
...D3/Friday-D5/Sunday: Southern/Central Plains...
Surface low associated with the previously mentioned shortwave
trough is expected to track eastward near the KS/OK border during
the day on D3/Friday while an associated dryline sweeps across the
southern Plains. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated behind
this dryline, helping to a support critical fire-weather threat from
far west TX/southeast NM eastward/northeastward through the Low
Rolling Plains and into southwest OK. In these areas, sustained
westerly/southwesterly winds from 20 to 30 mph will align with
afternoon RH values in from the low teens to low 20s.
Fire-weather threat will persist into the weekend across the
southern Plains with strong flow aloft ahead of the second shortwave
trough (discussed above) spreading over the dry antecedent airmass.
Critical fire-weather conditions are likely from far west TX through
the Permian Basin on D5/Sunday as gusty winds, promoted by strong
westerly flow aloft, deep boundary-layer mixing, and a tight surface
pressure gradient, occur amidst above-average temperatures and
afternoon RH values below 15-percent.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...