Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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565
FNUS28 KWNS 122044
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

A relatively progressive, but amplified mid/upper pattern will
persist across the country through the upcoming weekend, with the
continued influence of a ridge near the West Coast, and a series of
troughs across the central/eastern US. This pattern will maintain a
period of northeasterly flow across southern California, continuing
fire-weather concerns there. Additionally, occasional breeziness
across the Plains will overlap dry fuels, likely resulting in
periods of at least elevated concerns late this week into the
weekend.

...Southern California: D3/Thursday - D6/Sunday...
A 70%/critical area has been introduced for D3/Thursday, based on
the latest ensemble/deterministic guidance. Models have trended
towards stronger northeasterly flow overspreading the region on the
backside of a shortwave trough diving south across the Desert
Southwest Thursday. In response, the combination of increasing flow
aloft and a tightening pressure gradient at the surface will likely
yield strong winds across higher terrain and surrounding
foothills/valleys. Combined with extremely dry fuels and very low RH
values, critical conditions appear likely.

Thereafter, both GEFS and ECENS data suggest periods of
elevated/locally critical concerns will remain possible through
D6/Sunday, owing to some degree of continued surface ridging over
the Great Basin. In turn, 40%/marginal areas have been introduced.

...Central/Southern Plains: D4/Friday - D5/Saturday...
The progressive pattern will bring a series of troughs across the
central US through the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. On both D4/Friday and D5/Saturday, lee troughing will favor
a tightening pressure gradient from the southern High Plains to the
Missouri Valley. Dry fuels and lowering RH values will likely favor
at least elevated fire-weather concerns, especially Saturday.
Additionally, while a cold front will bring cooler conditions behind
it on Saturday, strengthening winds and dry air will maintain some
post-frontal fire-weather threat.

..Picca.. 12/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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