Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 012010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      73  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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