Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271821
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL STRATO CUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN A HOUR OR TWO...WHICH I DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SW TO NE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PULLS OUT. SO SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT HELD THINGS GENERALLY SCATTERED THERE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER NORTH...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      50  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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