Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 240538
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Wednesday.

Now that our swath of heavy rain has exited across the southeast
half, that area will have a little time to recover from all of the
recent rains before the next round arrives and thus we have
cancelled the flash flood watch. Another area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms has developed across the northwest half
of the area this afternoon in response to yet another upper
shortwave. While we will be watching for any locally heavy rain,
this area has not had as much as the southeast half of the CWA and
has a little more wiggle room to work with before flash flooding
would be expected. Current thinking is that the convection
currently northwest of the I-59 corridor should be diurnally
influenced and decrease in coverage around sunset with loss of
heating with a little bit of a lull in the activity before the
next round comes into play along and ahead of the front. Another
round of convection along the front will move across Louisiana and
Mississippi this evening and move into Central Alabama during the
late night hours well after midnight. We should see activity
across our area become more widespread at this time from west to
east. While some thunderstorm activity is anticipated, severe
parameters are pointing toward the stronger activity to hold off
until the daylight hours on Wednesday morning as it moves across
the southeast half of the CWA. A few marginally strong to severe
storms will be possible along the front. The main threat will be
damaging straight line winds with the front with not enough low
level shear for there to be a significant tornado threat. During
the afternoon behind the front, we will likely see some wrap
around shower activity, but thunderstorm activity should decrease
as the atmosphere stabilizes.

08

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Monday.

The overall CONUS trough finally lifts out of the southeast by
Thursday morning allowing for some drier air to work into the region
through Friday. After a cooler day on Thursday, Friday will warm
back up to a typical late May day with readings in the 80s areawide.
Temperatures will continue to modify and rise over the weekend with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a few areas topping out in
the low 90s in the southeast.

An approaching front will move closer to the area on Saturday. So
with the increase in temperatures and increase in moisture those
summer time thunderstorms will once again develop and impact a good
portion of the area as the front tries to drape into the area over
the weekend. There is still some discrepancies with the models as
the GFS tries to clear the front on through while the Euro stalls it
out.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Initial round of rain is moving out of Central AL currently. CIGs
are dropping at some TAF sites, and there`s no reason to think
CIGs won`t drop at the remain sites overnight. Have lowered to
700-1000 ft across the area. KEET is seeing some lowered VIS due
to fog. Unsure at this time how widespread the fog will become.
Have opted to leave it out of the TAFs for other sites at this
time, but will amend quickly overnight if it looks necessary.
Guidance at MGM and TOI show LIFR CIGS moving in soon, but won`t
drop it that low initially.
Another round of rain moves in from the west during the morning
hours between 12-15z. Isolated periods of heavy rain can be
expected to lower VIS briefly. Any widespread rain/storm activity
moves out by 15-18z leaving scattered chances too low to mention
in any specific site for the rest of the day. Winds generally from
the southwest to west, gusty in the afternoon.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue tonight across
portions of Central Alabama on into Wednesday until a front moves
through the area. A few strong storms are possible Wednesday
morning across the southeast half of the area. Rain free and
cooler conditions are expected behind the front on Thursday.
Conditions will warm for Friday with rain chances returning by the
weekend. Critical fire weather are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  53  73  54  84 /  70  40  20   0   0
Anniston    73  53  73  54  84 /  80  40  10   0   0
Birmingham  72  54  75  57  86 /  50  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  54  77  57  87 /  40  30  10   0   0
Calera      73  54  76  57  86 /  40  40  10   0   0
Auburn      75  55  74  57  83 /  80  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  77  56  79  58  88 /  50  20  10   0   0
Troy        76  55  79  57  87 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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