Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 051502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
902 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD ADVECTION HAS TAKEN AN UNEXPECTED PAUSE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FREEZING LINE WILL MAKE IT AND WHEN CERTAIN AREAS WILL HIT THAT
MARK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBS UPSTREAM INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING. THOUGH IT IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
LIKELY...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF COUNTIES THAT WERE
ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BOUTS OF IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME IMPROVEMENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WAS KEPT IN TCL/BHM/EET WITH ONLY
PL FOR ASN/ANB.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WAS IN THE VICINITY OF MGM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HANGS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FREEZING LINE WAS
LOCATED IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WAS
BEING REPORTED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE I-59 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 9-10 AM AND HOLD IN THAT GENERAL AREA. ADDED THE RAIN
MIXED WITH SLEET AND A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST BUT LIGHT
ICING IS POSSIBLE FOR TCL/BHM/EET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ASN/ANB
FOR THE FREEZING LINE AND PRECIPITATION AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST LATER TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS THEN HANGING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. SOME DRYING
IS INDICATED AND THEREFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OR LIFT IN CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 739 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

REPORTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES INDICATE THIS HAS BECOME
A VERY SUBSTANTIAL SLEET EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
SUBFREEZING LAYER BENEATH THE WARM NOSE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER AND
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...ALLOWING COMPLETELY MELTED SNOWFLAKES TO
REFREEZE INTO ICE PELLETS BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BELIEVE THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE JEFFERSON...TUSCALOOSA...AND PICKENS
COUNTIES MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 3/4 INCH IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...
MARION...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...ETOWAH...
GREENE...HALE...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER.

&&

$$






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