Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 290858
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

The main cold front remains north of the area, but we are beginning
A pocket of lower dew points begin to move into the northwest
portions of the forecast area. Unfortunately the more consistent
area of lower dew points remain up in Tennessee. This should keep
lows on the mild side, in the upper 60s to low 70s, with moisture
pooling ahead of this. Normally have to watch out for dense fog
development, but current thinking is that considerable mid and high
clouds from earlier convection over Mississippi and Louisiana will
be a limiting factor. Patchy fog is still possible by sunrise but
should not be as widespread as it could be.

As we work into the daytime hours, we will see the front continue to
move southward. Any convection for the day will be generally along
and south of the I-85 corridor with just an isolated chance as far
north as Clanton. Any activity that develops will decrease in
coverage through Midnight. Lows will be on the comfortable side
across the north, while the south remains mild with the nearby
front.

16

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

By Thursday, we will likely see our furthest southward progress
of the surface front. I expect it to not get much south of the
I-85 corridor and start to move back toward North Alabama on
Friday into Saturday. Will see a return to more diurnally based
rain chances as the boundary will be weakened. There will be an
shortwave developing over the northern gulf coast in the base of
the very broad upper eastern CONUS trough Thursday. It should
traverse the coast and then move toward Southern Georgia and the
Carolinas on Friday, with another bit of upper energy moving into
the Tennessee Valley on Friday as well. So will keep some low
pops southeast Thursday and Friday, expanding to the north by
Saturday.

Model solutions diverge on how far south the next front will get.
However, with such a flat upper trough across the north central
and northeast parts of the U.S., a stalling front to our north
scenario appears to be more plausible. So I am thinking that our
decaying, meandering front will likely drift even further north
into Tennessee by Sunday as elongated surface ridging builds back
into the Gulf of Mexico. It should then encounter our approaching
front which will be hampered by flat upper ridging and a low
pressure system that will be racing off to the east and leaving it
behind. What does this all mean for Central Alabama for Sunday
into the 4th and into Tuesday? It means warmer, more humid
conditions with a more typical summertime diurnal rain chance
pattern with relief only by way of the occasional heat induced or
outflow boundary induced thunderstorm.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

The main front still remains north of the area, but we are
beginning to dew points drop just north of BHM. This will
continue to move southward through the area. Really the only site
that still could see a thunderstorm will be TOI through 8z.
Through sunrise there is a potential for MVFR fog With the front
slowly pushing through. Added to all sites except for BHM. Will
need to monitor for any IFR restrictions but right now too low of
a confidence. A few thunderstorms may be possible at TOI again
during the afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible across the
southeast today, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into
the beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Anniston    92  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  90  69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  92  68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      92  68  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      90  71  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
Montgomery  92  72  93  71  94 /  30  30  30  20  20
Troy        90  69  90  70  92 /  40  30  40  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

16/08



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