Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 261735
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop
this morning along an apparent remnant outflow boundary. Initial
development was in Mississippi but some development is beginning
to occur eastward into our northwest counties, and this is where
the highest rain chances will likely be today. An upper-level low
will move northwestward near the Gulf Coast today, while an
associated easterly upper-level jet streak will move into Central
Alabama. Meanwhile the mid-level anticyclone will continue to lift
northeastward into the Mid- Atlantic. A dry air mass is located
over the southern half of area, where dewpoints have fallen into
the upper 60s, and dry conditons are expected there. Isolated to
scattered mainly afternoon showers will develop across the
northern half of the forecast area in a moist air mass. There is
some dry air aloft which could result in some 30-40 mph wind gusts
with the stronger storms, but limited instability/warm air aloft
will keep the risk of any stronger microbursts low. Otherwise,
another hot and humid summer day is expected. Similar to previous
days, mid 70s dewpoints remain in place across portions of west-
central and northwest Central Alabama, which could allow heat
index values to approach 105 degrees before dewpoints lower due to
mixing. Will forgo any low-confidence mention of heat in the HWO
due to the small area affected/duration, the similar conditions
on previous days, and the developing convection.

32/Davis


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

SHRA are developing in the vicinity of many of our northern TAF
sites along a low level boundary located southwest to northeast
indicated by radar. Further south drier air aloft is limiting Cu
development early this afternoon. Expect SHRA with isolated TSRA
across the northern sites with very isolated activity expected
south. Tonight expect diminishing convection toward 02Z followed
by some reduced VIS at TOI toward 04Z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally dry conditions will continue thru the weekend, with
only low rain chances at times. Temps will remain near or slightly
above normal thru early next week. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  92  71  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
Anniston    72  92  73  91  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
Birmingham  74  93  74  93  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      73  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
Auburn      72  93  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  72  96  73  94  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        71  94  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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