National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBMX 240218
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
918 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVING DOWN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

08


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$