Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 101111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WE JUST HAVE A FEW FLURRIES
STILL FALLING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...MAINLY CHEROKEE COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

16

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL OVER THE GULF THURSDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FRIDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING AND THUS NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO
ALABAMA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1046MB) LATE FRIDAY SWINGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMING INTO A BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER EURO
SOLUTION. STILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THIS
COULD CHANGE AND TREND TO MORE OF AN ALL RAIN SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THE PRE DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES BEFORE THE
DAYTIME WARM UP TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN AND THEN IN THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST COOLER READINGS WORK THEIR WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA AND COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
NORTH BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS OF NOW IF THE EASTERN WEDGE MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO PROHIBIT OUR WARM UP AND THUS WE END UP
WITH A GREATER WINTER THREAT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
LOW...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SCENARIO BUT WE STILL ARE SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND IT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE AREA
WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  22  52  29  53 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  24  54  30  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  28  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  27  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      41  29  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  27  58  37  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  28  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        48  28  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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