National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Ponca City, Ponca City Municipal Airport (KPNC)

Lat: 36.73°NLon: 97.1°WElev: 1007ft.

Fair

74°F

23°C

Humidity 85%
Wind Speed S 12 G 23 mph
Barometer 29.58 in (1000.3 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 17 Jun 5:53 am CDT
Extended Forecast for

Fairfax OK

  • Today

    Today: Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

    High: 95 °F

    Sunny

  • Tonight

    Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 73. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

    Low: 73 °F

    Slight Chance
    T-storms then
    Slight Chance
    Showers

  • Thursday

    Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    High: 78 °F

    Showers
    Likely

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Low: 65 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Juneteenth

    Juneteenth: Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

    High: 85 °F

    Partly Sunny

  • Friday Night

    Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

    Low: 70 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Saturday

    Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    High: 87 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Saturday Night

    Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

    Low: 76 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Sunday

    Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

    High: 93 °F

    Slight Chance
    T-storms

Detailed Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 73. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Juneteenth
Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Monday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
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Forecast Area
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
Fairfax OK
 36.56°N 96.7°W
Last Update:
2:50 am CDT Jun 17, 2026
Forecast Valid:
6am CDT Jun 17, 2026-6pm CDT Jun 23, 2026
 
Forecast Discussion
 
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Additional Resources

Radar & Satellite Image

Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data

Hourly Weather Forecast

National Digital Forecast Database

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

High Temperature

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Chance of Precipitation