Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 111106
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Very little change in forecast reasoning from 06Z forecast. Expect
deteriorating conditions thru the period as an upper level wave
moves across the region. Widespread showers and storms will
overspread the region from W to E during the morning and exit by
mid afternoon. VFR cigs will drop to MVFR with some patches of IFR
possible. MVFR cigs will prevail for the latter half of the period
in the wake of the rain and storms.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today with the
area in a zone of isentropic lift and a weak mid-level
shortwave forecast to move across the area. It is possible
that a storm or two could become strong to severe across
extreme southeast Oklahoma where elevated instability
will be maximized. Large hail will be the main concern.
Locally heavy rains could also be possible across
southeast Oklahoma today. The shower and thunderstorm activity
will exit the region this evening as the mid-level shortwave
exits to the east.

Mostly dry weather is expected for the remainder of the work
week with a gradual warming trend taking place as high pressure
prevails at the surface and a west-northwest flow takes shape
aloft.

The weather pattern will become more unsettled over the weekend
and early next week as the upper level pattern becomes more
southwesterly and moisture surges into the region on the heels
of a persistent southerly low level flow.

Stayed close to the NBM through the forecast period with only
a few adjustments made to the first period to better reflect
short-term trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  50  65  47 /  80  40  10  10
FSM   60  50  67  48 /  90  40  10  10
MLC   58  51  65  48 /  90  40  20  10
BVO   60  48  65  44 /  70  40  10  10
FYV   60  45  65  42 /  90  40  10  10
BYV   60  47  63  44 /  80  40  10  10
MKO   58  50  64  47 /  80  40  10  10
MIO   60  48  64  44 /  60  40  10  10
F10   58  50  64  47 /  90  40  20  10
HHW   60  53  65  50 / 100  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30


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