Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282337
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR conditions will continue to prevail through tonight and much
of Thursday morning, though temporary improvement to MVFR is
possible this evening as convective showers pass through. More
widespread rain will prevail across NE OK and NW AR later tonight
into Thursday with sfc winds increasing out of the N-NW gusting
around 25 kts. Gradual clearing expected across NE OK after 18z
Thu.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 201 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low continues its track toward our region and is
currently located across the lower Texas panhandle. The warm
conveyor continues ahead of the upper low across portions of
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas as the upper low
continues to approach. This has brought several rounds of showers
and occasional thunderstorms  and locally heavy rainfall - to
locations mainly east of US highway 69 this morning and early this
afternoon. KFSMs latest 6 hourly ob shows 2.88 of rain
between 12 and 18Z! The daily record is 3.05 set back in 1991
which is very much in jeopardy with additional rounds of rainfall
expected through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall is expected to continue
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas as
the upper low approaches and tracks along or close to the Red
River. The rest of this afternoon will feature warm conveyor
showers and thunderstorms across the area with the bulk of the
activity across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Locally
heavy rainfall will lead to localized low lying flooding given
the widespread rainfall that has already occurred. The OK Mesonet
and NW AR observations show widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with near 6 inches locally across east-central Oklahoma. This
evening and overnight will see the heavy rain threat generally
shift to locations along and north of I-40 as the comma head
associated with the upper low and the elevated warm front moves
through. An extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected through the overnight hours tonight with the heavy
rainfall threat continuing through at least late morning tomorrow
across NE OK and far NW AR. Winds are also expected to increase
through the day Thursday as well as the upper level low moves
along the Red River. A dry slot is expected to move through SE OK
and much of west-central AR tonight into tomorrow. When it is all
said and done an additional 1 to 3 inches is expected from about
I-40 and points to the north with locally higher amounts of 4 to 5
inches possible. The Areal Flood Watch was expanded a little
earlier this afternoon to include parts of east-central Oklahoma
and the rest of NW AR due to heavy rainfall that has fallen
through the day today. The Flood Watch will also be expanded a
little more with this update as well to include Creek, Wagoner,
and Cherokee counties. There is decent agreement among CAM
solutions of at least 2 inches of rain and given that 2 to 5
inches has fallen across these counties, there is reason enough to
believe there could be some localized flooding for these
locations. Despite the heavy rainfall in the forecast, area rivers
are expected to remain within their banks but if higher amounts
than forecast fall in the wrong spots then some rivers may
approach flood. This is a testament to how dry we have been over
the last month or so and how badly the area needed rain. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts as we gather the most up to date
information.

The threat for rain quickly exits by Thursday evening as the upper
level low wastes no time exiting the region leading to skies
finally clearing out! Depending on how quickly skies clear,
current forecast highs for tomorrow may be a little too low.
Regardless, clearing skies are expected Thursday night into
Friday. This will likely result in a pretty cold Friday morning
with freezing temperatures expected across far NW AR and across
much of NE OK. A Freeze Watch may be needed for areas that have
yet to see a killing freeze yet.

An extended period of dry weather is then expected to continue
through the weekend and into the upcoming work week. A cold front
is expected to move through Saturday evening and overnight which
will mainly bring a wind shift and a drop in temperatures. Sunday,
as a result, will be much cooler with highs only reaching into the
mid to upper 50s for most as opposed to the low to mid 60s the day
prior. The warming trend will resume Monday as temperatures warm
back into the 60s as a result of a mid level ridge moving onto the
southern plains and winds at the surface becoming southwesterly.

Snider

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ054>064-067>069-
     072-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....14



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