Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 021115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with a decrease
in mid clouds from the west this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/


An active and progressive pattern is currently in place over the
CONUS, and will persist thru this forecast. That said, this
weather pattern will be largely inconsequential from an impact
standpoint. Storm systems will not have access to rich moisture so
severe weather is not likely and rainfall will not be overly
heavy. It will not be cold enough for winter weather either. The
exception will be fire weather concerns on days when it gets warm
and windy.

The upper low that was near El Paso yesterday at this time is now
tracking across southern OK and will move into southern AR later
today. The lighter echoes on radar are mainly aloft and mostly
virga due to a dry sub-cloud layer on model soundings, which
should prove detrimental to measurable precip in our area. Latest
CAM/HREF data keeps measurable precip to the south and east of
the forecast area for the most part so will stick go with dry blended
guidance forecast after 12Z with the exception of a small chance
in the Ouachitas.

Lots of March insolation is expected the next few days, thus odds
are that blended guidance (NBM) is too cool and have leaned
toward warmer MOS and ensemble median (NBM 50th percentile)

The next storm system to affect the region arrives Thursday night
into Friday. This upper low will track southeast across the Plains
with the surface low expected to stay to our west and south. Due
to the track of the system, the main precip band will be over our
area on the north and east side of the upper low. Instability will
be limited by the lack of quality moisture return from the south,
with this system arriving too quickly on the heels of a frontal
intrusion into the Gulf. Therefore, will maintain the slight
chance thunder mention from previous forecast. There`s a saying
tossed around here from time to time that goes "Upper low dig,
nothing big". It appears this will apply again in this case.

Models have trended farther north with the next system over the
weekend and are dry. Southerly winds will be on the increase and
so will temps and eventually moisture. Highs Sunday and Monday
will lean toward warmer MOS and NBM ensemble median guidance. Lows
Sunday night will lean toward warmer raw guidance with strong
southerly flow persisting.





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