104
FXUS64 KTSA 152329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

 - Unseasonably warm conditions Thursday and Friday.

 - Low rain chances (15-30%) for portions of far eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest and west central Arkansas Friday afternoon
   through Friday night.

 - Arctic cold front arrives Friday night into early Saturday
   morning.

 - Bitterly cold temperatures behind the front from Saturday night
   through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Light winds and near to just above normal temperatures are ongoing
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas,
along with a southward pushing band of largely mid and high cloud.
Expect quiet conditions to continue overnight as high pressure
moves closer to the area, with clear skies and overnight lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Thursday will start off with light northerly winds in place given
the position of the surface high, but southerly winds will return
as it shifts off to the south and east. Well above normal
temperatures can be expected across the entire region, with
western areas seeing the warmest conditions given the quicker
return to south winds. The warm conditions will continue into
Friday as well, with a strong low level jet ahead of the next
storm system leading to increasing winds during the day. Expect
gusty conditions, with wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range
likely, especially north of I-40. Increasing moisture in response
to the low level jet and the approaching storm system will lead to
isolated to scattered shower development focused across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas beginning Friday afternoon
and continuing into Friday night. Amounts should be light.

The much advertised Arctic cold front will move through the area
Friday night and into Saturday, with winds quickly shifting to a
northerly direction and also remaining gusty. Winds and wind gusts
from Friday through Saturday afternoon have been adjusted upward
from the NBM initializations, leveraging data from the MOS
consensus and the raw model consensus blends, respectively. Some
increase in mid level moisture behind the front during the day
Saturday has been noted, with the NBM probabilities for measurable
snow largely holding in the 10 to 20 percent range across parts of
northeast Oklahoma. Will not include any mention of light snow or
flurries in the forecast for now, but would not be surprised to
see some snowflakes during the day Saturday, albeit not impactful
ones.

The very cold airmass behind the front will fully move into the
region for the latter part of the weekend and into early next
week, with lows in the single digits in some areas by Monday
morning and highs remaining below freezing in most spots. Some
uncertainty in the Monday to Tuesday time frame exists regarding
potential for accumulating snow across the south central United
States. Much of the data shows parts of Texas more at risk for
this than areas farther north. However, some deterministic models
show a farther north solution that impacts parts of southeast
Oklahoma and the NBM probabilistic data shows low probabilities
creeping into that part of the forecast area, too. Keep watching
the latest forecasts and statements as early next week approaches
as details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period
for all sites. A period of LLWS is expected to develop during the
late overnight/ early morning hours across NW AR sites, gusting
to 30-40 kts. Otherwise, skies remain mostly clear with sfc winds
generally less than 10 kts out of the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31  57  36  60 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   27  55  31  58 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   28  58  36  60 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   27  56  31  60 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   29  54  32  57 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   32  52  32  56 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   29  55  34  58 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   28  52  32  57 /   0   0   0  10
F10   31  57  36  59 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   28  58  34  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43