Text Products for AFD Issued by TSA

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 071115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Today will see lower coverage of diurnal convection than what we
have seen the past few days, with most activity confined to the
western and southern parts of the forecast area. Afternoon high
temperatures will remain similar to what they have been the past
couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Diurnal convective coverage will increase again Thursday and
Friday as a weak backdoor frontal boundary tries to push into the
area from the northeast. Convective coverage will increase further
over the weekend as a more substantial cold front moves into and
through the area. Flow aloft will also be increasing over the
weekend, so a few severe storms will be possible.

Somewhat cooler and drier air will move into the area behind the
front, which may keep things dry Monday, but shower and storm
chances will increase by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as
the next storm system moves into the area. The medium range models
diverge greatly on the placement of surface boundaries by this
time, so the severe weather threat for the middle part of next
week remains highly uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Brief fog with MVFR categories at the NW AR sites(brief IFR
KROG) and KMLC through 13z. VFR TAF elements will prevail outside
of fog, and at the remaining sites through the entire period.
Afternoon/evening coverage of TSRA appears too low for any TAF
mention at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  68  91  67 /  10  10  30  20
FSM   93  68  93  68 /  10  10  50  10
MLC   90  64  90  65 /  20  10  20  10
BVO   91  63  91  61 /  10  10  30  20
FYV   89  62  89  60 /  10  10  50  20
BYV   90  63  90  60 /  10  20  50  20
MKO   91  65  91  66 /  10  10  30  20
MIO   90  65  90  62 /  10  10  40  20
F10   89  65  89  65 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...23

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office