Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182332
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Another round of below freezing temperatures is in offing for
tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Minimum temperatures may be reached earlier than normal tonight
as south-southwesterly winds increase overnight across much of the
area as the surface high centered over the area northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon shifts to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Considerably warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday as
west-southwesterly winds prevail. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. With afternoon relative
humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range across much of the area,
there will be a limited fire weather danger on Tuesday with enhanced
grassland fire spread rates.
The chances of showers will increase late Wednesday afternoon and
continue through Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning
over southwest Arizona is dislodged and ejects out across the Southern
Plains. There is expected to be adequate instability for a few thunderstorms
as well.
Still uncertainty in the models as we move into the late week into the weekend
period. The GFS continues to be much cooler than the ECMWF during this time-frame.
The forecast which is based on the NBM will stay closer to the warmer ECMWF.
The potential for showers and a few storms will return as we move over
the weekend and into early next week as the next storm system moves approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
sites. Winds become lighter after sundown this evening with light
winds gradually shifting to SSW through the early morning hours.
SW winds increase by late tomorrow morning and afternoon...gusting
to 20-25 kts. A period of LLWS may develop between 12z-16z for
BVO, gusting to 35 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 33 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 30 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 31 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 20
BVO 29 77 41 72 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 27 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 29 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 30 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 29 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 20
F10 32 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 30 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...43