Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 071739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Another hot day is in progress today, with temperatures expected
to approach the record high of 104 in Tulsa this afternoon. Mid
and high level cloud cover will be the wild card northwest of
Interstate 44, but expect much of this cloudiness to thin out or
dissipate this afternoon, allowing temperatures to soar. Isolated
showers or storms remain possible across the far northwest part of
the forecast area by late afternoon, but areal coverage will
likely remain sparse. The current forecast and heat headlines are
on track, and no forecast update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

A weak frontal boundary will drop south across the region Friday
into Saturday as a wave/subtle jet streak slide by to our north
across KS/MO. Will maintain at least low storm chances with the
boundary, starting in the north Friday and shifting south and east
by Saturday. There will not be enough cooling with the front
initially on Friday to overcome the compensation to the HI from
higher dewpoints due to moisture pooling. Thus areas on both sides
of the front will see afternoon HI at least in advisory levels,
except for the higher terrain areas of NW AR. Current forecast has
near 110 HI over the lower Ark River valley extending northwest
toward Tulsa, so it`s possible another upgrade to a warning will
be needed for a portion of the area Friday. By Saturday, temps and
dewpoints should drop enough for most of the area to stay out of
advisory criteria, except possibly the lower Ark River valley down
into far SE OK. Will let future shifts evaluate this potential.

A strengthening H5 ridge over the central and southern Rockies
will expand its influence east over the region Sunday and Monday.
Expect at least a brief return to triple digit temps. A more
amplified upper air pattern is expected by the middle of next week
as a deep trough develops over the eastern CONUS. This should
force a more noticeable cold front south down the Plains Tuesday
into Wednesday with at least low storm chances. While temps will
be "relatively" cooler in the 90s behind this front, what will be
more noticeable is the expected drop in humidity behind the
boundary for the latter half of the week. We`ll take whatever we
can get this time of year.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few
high based showers or thunderstorms may occur in the vicinity of
KBVO late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  104  81 101  78 /  10  20  20  10
FSM  103  80 104  80 /   0  10  20  10
MLC  102  78 104  75 /   0   0  20  10
BVO  103  78  98  74 /  10  30  20  10
FYV  100  76  99  72 /   0  10  20  10
BYV  100  78  99  73 /  10  10  20  10
MKO  101  78 102  75 /   0  10  20  10
MIO  100  78  97  74 /   0  20  20  10
F10  103  78 103  75 /   0  10  20  10
HHW  100  78 103  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-058-
     059-063-064-069.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ055>057-060>062-065>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-010-019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05


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