Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the valid period
with scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting area TAF
sites through the remainder of the night and into Wednesday.
IFR conditions can be expected within the thunderstorm areas.
Conditions improve towards the end of the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 927 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The hot spot for convection tonight has been along and south of a
boundary extending from northwest Oklahoma through southeast
Kansas. The synoptic cold front is still farther north, across
south central Kansas northeast toward Kansas City. The complex of
storms which has been affecting the OKC metro all night will
likely be sustained by the increase in the low level jet, though
the storms will move southeast and miss most of our eastern
Oklahoma counties.

The upper trough axis will gradually slide to the east overnight,
and the low level jet will be maintained ahead of it, which should
support scattered showers and storms overnight across eastern
Oklahoma. The best chance for storms continues to be after
midnight for most of the area, and even towards early morning
across western Arkansas. Rain may not spread into southeast
Oklahoma much at all, and that is reflected in the current
forecast.

Updated the low temps, as most areas should stay pretty uniform
as last night, in the low to mid 70s. Severe potential should be
winding down, with the main focus on heavy rain overnight.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....10


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