Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210818
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
318 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain potential over the next couple of days continues to be
the main forecast concern this morning, with the focus shifting
into mainly northeast Oklahoma.

An MCV apparent in radar imagery over central Oklahoma early this
morning will continue to move slowly northeastward today and will
likely result in expanding showers and thunderstorms roughly along
and northwest of I-44 through the morning. This scenario is
depicted well in recent runs of the HRRR, with some potential also
extending into the afternoon hours. Tropical moisture remains
prevalent across the region, as the southwesterly flow aloft
continues to transport moisture from Hurricane Lorena into the
region. The 00Z RAOBs from OUN and Lamont show precipitable water
values near 2 inches within that plume, supporting some potential
for locally heavy rainfall. An overall lull in the activity should
occur for much of tonight, with coverage again likely to be expand
in advance of an approaching cold front during the day Sunday and
spreading southeastward with the front into Sunday night. The
heaviest rainfall is again expected to be across northeast
Oklahoma as the upper jet strengthens and makes its closest
approach. Depending on what happens this morning rain-wise in that
same area, some consideration may need to be given to a Flash
Flood Watch in the next 24 hours.

In addition to the heavy rain threat with both today`s and
tomorrow`s activity, a chance for isolated marginally severe
thunderstorms will exist, although the greater organized severe
weather potential should remain nearer the upper level support to
the north of the area.

Drier and cooler air will move in behind the front late Monday,
although this will be fairly short lived as a continued unsettled
pattern persists through the upcoming work week. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be likely Tuesday as an upper low in the
southwestern United States makes a slow eastward approach and
southwesterly flow once again develops aloft. Toward the middle to
latter part of the upcoming week, there are considerable model
differences regarding what will happen with that upper low. As
such, will largely stick with the fairly low POPs offered by the
blended guidance given the high uncertainty on timing and areal
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  73  83  64 /  50  40  90  50
FSM   88  72  87  72 /  10  10  30  50
MLC   87  73  85  67 /  20  10  50  40
BVO   83  71  80  61 /  60  50  90  30
FYV   83  68  81  65 /  20  20  60  50
BYV   85  71  84  65 /  30  10  60  50
MKO   87  72  83  66 /  30  20  70  50
MIO   83  71  79  61 /  60  40  90  50
F10   87  72  83  65 /  30  30  70  50
HHW   89  70  88  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22


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