Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232007
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis indicates that the warm front has lifted
up into southern KS this afternoon. The front then dips to the
southwest to a triple point over the TX Panhandle where it meets
up with the dryline. Thus, the main focus for storms has shifted
to our west and north and this should lead to a much quieter
afternoon and evening compared to yesterday. There is some
potential for activity to graze the northwestern zones late
tonight but the latest CAM models suggest this is a low chance at
best. The front will move closer to the area on Friday, mainly due
to the northward ejection of a shortwave trough from the broader
longwave western CONUS trough. This boundary will spread chances
for rain/storms across more of NE OK thru the weekend.

We get another break in the action Sunday and Monday before
another storm system and cold front bring more rain/storms Tuesday
into Wednesday. The ejecting shortwave trough will bring stronger
flow aloft over the Plains, and thus an increase in severe weather
threat.

In the wake of this system, the larger scale synoptic pattern over
the CONUS is expected to transition to a split flow block in the
West, with a deep trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast. We
may actually have a few decent days in there during the middle to
latter part of next week behind the front before rain/storms
return by the following weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  87  71  85 /   0  20  20  20
FSM   70  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  86  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   70  86  70  84 /  10  30  20  30
FYV   66  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   68  88  67  86 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   70  86  69  86 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   70  86  70  85 /   0  10  10  20
F10   71  85  70  85 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   69  87  68  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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