Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1129 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020


The discussion regarding the 06Z TAF forecast follows...


No major changes to the 00Z forecast. A weak storm system will
slide across the region tonight into Thursday morning, bringing
some potential for light snow to KBVO and the far NW AR sites. A
cold front will also push into the region, with MVFR cigs
developing behind the front. A trend back toward VFR is expected
however by midday or early afternoon. A strong NE wind, with gusts
up to 20 kts, can be expected behind the front Thursday before
gradually subsiding during the afternoon and evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 905 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

00z OUN sounding analyzed a very dry sub-cloud layer up to about
5000 feet, with >15C dew point depression at 850mb. Shortwave
dropping south through the central Rockies resulting in increasing
lift downstream, mainly into western KS, as few reports of precip
reaching the ground as of yet east of I-35, or farther south into
OK. Still very much in question whether enough forcing from
weakening wave will spread east overnight to overcome the deep dry
layer and, if anything, recent high-res model runs have backed
off some in snow accum across NE OK and NW AR. Best overall precip
chances should remain across far southeast OK near southern
stream energy. Did not make major changes to the forecast, other
than a slight reduction in precip and snowfall amounts. Still a
dusting possible along the OK/KS border and some of the higher
terrain of NW AR, but no impacts anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 536 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/


The discussion regarding the 00Z TAF forecast follows...

A storm system will sweep across the area tonight into Thursday
morning, bringing some potential for precipitation. There will be
a chance of light snow at KBVO and the far NW AR sites aft 09Z and
continuing thru about 13Z. Light rain is possible at KMLC and
KFSM. A cold front will also accompany this system, with winds
picking up out of the NE on Thursday. A period of MVFR cigs is
expected at all sites Thursday morning before transitioning back
to VFR by midday or early afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

Decent warmup this afternoon in the cloud free areas with high
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 50s. Clouds will
quickly begin to increase this evening as upper level impulse
lifts into the region from the southwest and as elongated upper
trough approaches from the northwest. Still the potential for a
band of light snow to expand across far northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas overnight, however snow amounts appear limited with only
a dusting to a few tenths. Any snow bands will quickly dissipate
by Sunday morning with only a few lingering flurries possible as
drier air-mass filters into the area.

Arctic airmass will build into the region by Friday morning with
1040 MB surface high located over NE OK/NW AR. With clear skies
and light winds, good radiation cooling expected with low temperatures
falling into the teens in a few locations with lower to mid 20s

Strong upper low forecast to move out of the desert southwest on
Saturday, lifting northeast into the central plains on Sunday.
Precipitation chances will quickly increase late Saturday night
as system approaches with widespread light rain expected into the
day Sunday. Models have trended a little lighter concerning
overall rainfall amounts as dry slot overspreads the area Sunday
evening with surface low lifting into eastern Kansas.

Still some model differences concerning timing of cold front
early next week and therefore stayed close to NBM guidance/
climatology with only slight chance pops Tuesday across NE OK/NW


TUL   33  42  20  46 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   37  47  24  46 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   37  45  20  47 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   29  40  15  45 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   33  41  17  46 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   31  40  19  44 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   36  42  22  45 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   30  38  18  44 /  40  10   0   0
F10   35  44  22  46 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   38  47  26  47 /  80  10   0   0




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