Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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188
FXUS64 KTSA 241857
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
157 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Mid/upper-level trough axis that has been directly overhead the last
few days has shifted southeast of the forecast area today as a
potent 598dam ridge over the Desert Southwest/Great Basin region
continues to build eastward over the Plains. Mid-level WV/IR
satellite imagery shows decent subsidence occurring from the
ridge and has kept mostly dry conditions thus far, with the
exception of perhaps a couple of showers in southeast OK and west-
central AR. Despite the subsidence, recent runs of the HRRR
continue to produce additional isolated showers/storms late this
afternoon into early this evening across far southeast OK and
northwest AR. Will continue carry low (10-20%) PoPs through
sunset. Little to no impacts expected.

For the late evening and overnight period, tranquil weather is
expected to persist across the area. Overnight lows will bottom
out in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly cloud to mostly
clear skies. Similar to previous mornings, patchy to areas of
radiational fog is forecast to develop after midnight, mostly
impacting southeastern/far eastern OK and northwest AR through
mid-morning Thursday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Mainly low-impact weather will continue Thursday. Mid/upper-level
ridging will further build-in over the region, shoving the upper-
level trough axis farther south and east of the area. As such,
mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail, though did maintain
low (~20%) diurnally-driven, very isolated shower/storm chances
for much of the area during the afternoon hours, though most
locations will remain dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly
below seasonal average, with daytime highs reaching the low-mid
90s for most locations.

Slightly cooler temperatures and a slight uptick in precipitation
chances/coverage will arrive Friday and persists into the
upcoming weekend. Latest model guidance continues to indicate a
weak upper-level low develops over the ArkLaTex region late
Thursday night and lifts it northward over OK/AR/KS/MO through the
weekend. As far as rainfall amounts, latest deterministic and
ensembles are not too enthusiastic with accumulations and keep
amounts generally half-an-inch or less through Sunday. However,
forecast chances/amounts may change over the next couple days
pending the track/evolution of the upper low. Severe thunderstorm
parameters will be very low and severe weather is not expected at
this time. Temperatures during this stretch are forecast to drop a
few degrees below seasonal average with highs generally in the
80s through Saturday, increasing into the lower 90s for some
locations by Sunday.

The aforementioned upper low will continue to lift northward and
out of the area by Sunday morning/afternoon. As a result, this
will lead to mid/upper-level ridging building and expanding
eastward over the Southern Plains by Monday. Unseasonably hot
temperatures and abnormally dry weather will return through much
of next week and heat headlines appear likely for at least
portions of the forecast area as early as Monday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the afternoon with scattered cu.
Shower/storm coverage expected to be lower today compared to
yesterday, so will leave mention out of the TAFs for now. Cu goes
away tonight with some high cloud streaming across. We`ve had low
clouds and fog the past 2 nights at several NW AR sites as well as
KMLC. Current data suggests another repeat performance, so have
inserted TEMPO IFR conditions at KFYV, KFSM and KMLC, with TEMPO
MVFR inserted at KXNA and KROG aft 10Z.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  91 /   0  20   0  10
FSM   71  92  72  88 /  10  20   0  40
MLC   68  90  69  87 /  10  20   0  30
BVO   65  94  68  92 /   0  20   0  10
FYV   64  90  67  86 /  10  20   0  30
BYV   66  90  67  87 /  10  20   0  30
MKO   70  91  70  89 /  10  20   0  20
MIO   69  92  69  90 /   0  20   0  20
F10   69  91  69  89 /  10  20   0  20
HHW   70  88  69  84 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30