Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170434
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions forecast for all sites the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

UPDATE...

Some refinements were made to the evening/overnight PoPs. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Looking aloft, a high over low split flow blocking pattern resides
over the western CONUS, while a southeastward digging shortwave
trough in the northern stream was sliding across the central
Plains/Midwest. Southwest flow aloft in the southern stream,
downstream from a closed/cutoff low over the southwest CONUS,
streamed across TX into far southern OK and AR. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front lied parallel and just off the TX and
western LA Gulf Coast, then extended northeast into
MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. Cool and relatively drier air resided over
OK/AR well to the northwest of the front.

Recent mesonet/AWOS/radar observations at Hugo indicate that some
light rain /0.01"/ has fallen there recently, but that rain has
ended for now. Some potential for more light rain will exist over
far southeast OK for the next several hours where some weak mid
level isentropic lift exists in the southwest flow aloft down
there. As we head deeper into the night, the flow aloft will veer
with time as influence from the northern stream shortwave trough
sweeps across the Plains. Thus, the weak isentropic lift over far
SE OK will cease from north to south with time. Using the latest
hi-res guidance, the PoP gradient was tightened, keeping fairly
high PoPs near the Red River, but tapering them off more quickly
with northward extent. After 06Z, low PoPs were confined to near
the Red River.

No other noticeable changes were made to the going forecast. Text
products have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18


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