Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 061111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VFR elements are expected to prevail through most the TAF period.
Isolated convection this afternoon and evening will preclude any
TAF mention, however chances for convection will begin to increase
after 06z across NE OK with chances expanding south and east.
At this time will include prob groups 06z-12z for the NE OK/NW AR
sites and after 08z at KMLC/KFSM. Cigs expected to remain VFR with
MVFR vsbys where TSRA occurs.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/


Some adjustments have been made to the forecast in the near term
to account for trends in the data. The mid level deformation zone
has set up farther north tonight, where convection is ongoing
across southern NE/northern KS. PoPs were reduced during the day
today, with some weak isentropic lift evident in model data
justifying leaving some PoP mention in. CAM data does show
increasing shower and storm potential tonight into Friday across
the region due to increasing waa with the LLJ. Ridging builds in
aloft by Saturday, ending precip chances thru the weekend. The
ridge retrogrades next week, allowing for some chances for diurnal
showers and storms to return.

With highs climbing back into the upper 90s thru the weekend and
into Monday, afternoon heat indices will approach advisory levels
in the river valley locations. High temps will tail off some as
the week wears on, in tandem with the weakening ridge aloft.





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