Ensemble Forecast
Multiple predictions from an ensemble of slightly different initial conditions and/or various versions of models. The objectives are to improve the accuracy of the forecast through averaging the various forecasts, which eliminates non-predictable components, and to provide reliable information on forecast uncertainties from the diversity amongst ensemble members. Forecasters use this tool to measure the likelihood of a forecast.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
A weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models.
High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF)
An ensemble of products from several different models running at ~3 km horizontal grid spacing.
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS)
A probabilistic forecast tool with the goals to provide hydrologic forecasts including an analysis of “probable outcomes” and to minimize biases in the atmospheric models and in the hydrologic models.
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
An atmospheric ensemble of 20 members each from the NCEP GEFS and CMC EPS ensemble systems.

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