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166
FXUS61 KAKQ 080730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier conditions continue today. A weak cold front crosses
Sunday, bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
storms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

- Warm, but pleasant, day with highs in the mid 80s and
  continued low humidity.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front situated to the SE
of the FA and high pressure building toward the region from the SW.
Aloft, an area of low pressure sits over eastern Canada, to the
north of NY, while high pressure is situated over the western Gulf
and SW CONUS. Over the the FA, the UL flow is WNW. Today, sfc high
pressure slides to the east and flow aloft becomes more zonal as the
UL low slides east towards Nova Scotia.

Temps this morning are a bit cooler than the last several mornings,
especially in the piedmont. This is not surprising given the drier
air, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Temps in the piedmont have
dropped into the mid-upper 50s. To the east, temps are still in the
60s. Satellite also indicates scattered to broken cloud cover
generally E of I-95. With high pressure overhead today, expect quiet
weather and an overall pleasant day. Highs will be in the mid 80s
and dewpoints stay in the 50s. Scattered cloud cover is expected
across the FA by the afternoon. A weak cold front approaches from
the NW overnight, but remaining dry through Sun morning. Lows will
be in the mid-upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, with widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few storms.

- Cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods of
  isolated showers

Sunday through the early week period will feature a deepening trough
aloft over the eastern CONUS. There is increased confidence in this
time period now that 00z global models are coming into better
agreement on the synoptic pattern. At the sfc, a weak cold front
will pass through the area Sunday. Precip associated with the front
will probably be isolated to widely scattered. PoPs are within the
15-30% range. Showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be in the
NW 2/3rds of the area in the early afternoon, then will move to the
SE for the late afternoon and into the evening. Total QPF will
likely only be a few hundredths. Temps for Sun should heat up to
around 90 in Hampton Roads/NE NC and mid-upper 80s elsewhere. A bit
more humid as well as dewpoints return to the 60s ahead of the
front.

For the early week period, it should be mostly dry, but cannot rule
out a few periods of isolated showers/thunder given the presence of
the UL trough axis, which looks to pass through the FA Monday night.
Any PoPs through Tues have been kept to Schc. Temps will be below
seasonal averages by Tues. Highs on Mon will range from the upper
70s in the NW to the mid 80s in the SE. Highs on Tues likely stay in
the upper 70s across the entire area. Lows will generally be in the
mid-upper 50s in the piedmont and low-mid 60s in the east.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Disagreements in guidance leads to uncertainty in rain
  chances.

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs
  reaching the 90s by Friday.

Latest global guidance shows a general agreement regarding UL low
pressure and trough moving offshore and lifting out mid to late
week. However, the ECMWF is more amplified and deepens a surface low
just offshore. This solution would bring rain to at least eastern
portions of the area Tuesday night whereas other solutions keep the
FA dry through the end of the week. Will favor the blended guidance
for now, which is generally dry. Temps look to follow a warming
trend during this period. Highs on Wed will be in the low-mid 80s,
then upper 80s on Thurs, low 90s on Fri. Lows will be in the low-mid
60s Wed night, then upper 60s to around 70 on Thurs/Fri nights.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 06z and will continue the next 24
hours. Mid to high level BKN clouds are across the northern
portions of the FA area with FEW-SCT clouds elsewhere. These are
expected to scatter out through the morning before additional
scattered cloud cover builds in tomorrow. Winds will be 5-10kt
and generally out of the N through the rest of the night,
becoming westerly in the morning.

Dry and VFR Saturday night. Another cold front will bring a
slight chc of showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of
showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions
should prevail Sunday and Monday. Dry and VFR Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for the Chesapeake
Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches this weekend.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a weak surface low off the New
England coast with a secondary area of low pressure N of the Great
Lakes. Winds this afternoon were generally variable ~5 kt. A
reinforcing cold front crosses the local waters this evening into
tonight with winds becoming N 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. While
this surge is expected to be brief (3-4 hours), CAMs have trended
higher for winds. Given the higher confidence and efficient mixing
of cooler air over warm waters, have opted for SCAs for the Ches
Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound this evening into early
tonight. Winds become NW ~10 kt late tonight before becoming W 5-10
kt Sat as high pressure builds in from the W. Winds become SW 10-15
kt with a few gusts to 20 kt across the lower bay and coastal waters
Sat night into Sun. The GFS and NAM also show the potential for 15-
20 kt W winds Mon. However, both of these surges have low
confidence. As such, will continue to monitor for now.

Waves and seas were ~1 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves build to 2-3 ft this evening into early tonight before
subsiding to 1-2 ft by Sat morning. Seas may build to 3-4 ft across
the S coastal waters tonight, but given the short duration of the
surge, 4-5 ft seas are not expected. Additionally, there is a low
rip current risk this weekend given 2 ft nearshore seas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...RMM