-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
568
FXUS61 KAKQ 151858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue
today, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Mainly dry
conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers
and storms return Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area this
  aftn/evening.

- Any thunderstorms are likely to stay confined to NE NC and
  fat southern VA from late aftn into the evening.

- Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across the
  northern 1/2 of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will
  warm to the upper 70s/ near 80 degrees F along the Albemarle
  Sound in NE NC.

Sfc low pressure has deepened to near 1000 mb and is now located
off the MD coast (just to the ESE of Ocean City). A trough
aloft is still to our west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW
flow aloft over the local area. Mainly just spotty light showers
or drizzle across the region as of the noon hour, with
temperatures mostly in the 60s under low clouds. It is into the
lower 70s across portions of NE NC with variably cloudy skies,
and through the aftn, as the sfc low moves farther offshore,
expect to see ML CAPE values to around 500 J/Kg over NE NC and
perhaps into far southern VA near the NC border. In addition, we
will see cooling temps aloft as the upper trough approaches so
additional showers are expected later this aftn and evening,
with the highest PoPs over the S. PoPs rise to 40-60% across the
S/SW, with 20-40% elsewhere by late aftn.

The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with
widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10-
11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may
  persist. Mainly dry Friday.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast
through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day
weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence
behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the
coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern
shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the
later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with
mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland
during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-
60F with dry wx expected.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the
area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will
be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the
lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the
Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near
80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few
showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day,
though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and
  especially over the weekend.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday
  through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers
  possible on Sunday.

- Dry weather returns early next week.

Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure
system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible
Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized
flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to
1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has
a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday
through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back
side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages
late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the
coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s
across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week
with temps warming to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except for ORF/ECG where it is
borderline MVFR/IFR. IFR CIGs should prevail through late
morning-midday before improving to MVFR at all sites except SBY
(which will likely remain IFR through the period). Could even
see a period of VFR this aftn at ECG. Drizzle with MVFR VSBYs is
possible this morning at RIC/SBY before dissipating. Additional
showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely
be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG. CIGs fall back to
MVFR at all sites this evening-tonight with a period or two of
IFR possible at RIC overnight.

Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday
(though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu).
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms,
and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with
at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds will continue into Thursday as low pressure
meanders offshore. SCAs remain in effect.

- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.

- Winds and seas may increase again this weekend as the next system
moves through.

The surface low pressure continues to slide across our northern
waters and offshore of the Maryland Eastern Shore. It created
periods of 34+ kt gusts across the north through mid-day, but winds
have now subsided back into SCA criteria. In the Bay and rest of the
coastal waters, winds are mostly northwesterly at 12-18kt with gusts
to 20-25kt. Guidance continues to indicate winds increasing tonight
into Thursday on the backside of the low as it lingers just
offshore. SCAs have been extended for the Bay and lower James until
Thursday at 21Z/6pm. Winds will be gusty across the coastal waters
too, but should remain below their SCA criteria; however, 5+ ft
waves will linger into Thursday, particularly across the north.
Right now, the SCAs for the coastal waters from Cape Charles to
Currituck expire at 4pm today due to seas subsiding to 3-4ft and
winds expected to remain below SCA thresholds. The SCA from
Parramore Island to Cape Charles will drop off at 1AM as seas lower,
with the northern tier holding onto their SCA until Thursday
afternoon as those 5+ ft seas linger a bit longer. Winds will
subside late Thursday as the low pressure finally drifts further
southeast, likely allowing all SCAs to end.

Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday
afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another
low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially
increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the
position of the low. The ECMWF brings the system and elevated winds
in earlier on Saturday, while the GFS waits until Sunday into Monday
for the elevated conditions to arrive. Currently leaning towards the
ECMWF, but will continue to monitor.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the
Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening
and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).

The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton remains in
effect, and that point should fall below flood stage later today.
The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed
minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near
South Hill is cresting above 26 ft. Went ahead and issued a
Flood Warning for Lawrenceville.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP/SW
HYDROLOGY...LKB