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146
FXUS62 KCHS 191944
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...THE RISK FOR FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend across the region into Thursday. A
tropical wave will impact the Southeast U.S coast Thursday
night into Friday. High pressure will return over the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The risk for isolated to scattered showers moving onshore from
off the Atlantic will persist overnight. Pops 20-30% were
highlighted over the coastal counties to account for this.
Mixed-layer instability will remain curtailed by a pronounced
subsidence inversion. A well-defined TUTT located well to the
north of Hispaniola and its associated surface reflection in the
form of a southwest- northeast oriented tropical wave will
propagate the west and approach the Bahamas as daybreak
approaches. Breezy to locally windy conditions will linger at
the coast and especially at the beaches where the pressure
gradient between the tropical wave and high pressure to the
north will remain somewhat enhanced. Lows tonight will range
from the mid-upper 60s inland to the mid-upper 70s at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Ridge of high pressure will continue to hold influence over the
local area on Thursday. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will
shift westward towards the Southeast coast. While a few showers
can`t be ruled out primarily at the coast, similar to previous
days, forecast soundings indicate dry air and strong subsidence
which will act to limit shower activity. Highs will mainly be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will range from the mid 60s
across the interior to mid 70s at the immediate coast.

The aforementioned trough will likely shift onshore somewhere
near the GA/FL border early Friday. PWats will steadily
increase, forecast to exceed 2 inches by Friday, and showers are
expected to shift onshore through the day. While there should
be a fair amount of coverage, no rainfall/flooding concerns are
anticipated. Highs will again be seasonable, in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lows Friday night will be in the 70s.

Mid level ridge settles over the southern U.S. on Saturday,
while the remnant trough appears to linger over the area at the
surface. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with
highest coverage focused over southeast Georgia in proximity to
better moisture and convergence. High temperatures will peak in
the low to mid 90s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mid level ridge weakens early next week in response to a
stronger wave passing from the Great Lakes region through the
mid-Atlantic states. This could send a cold front towards the
area, but it is unlikely to make a clear passage. Should see a
return to a more seasonable diurnal convective pattern. Monday
could be the more active day of the set with the approaching
front. Temperatures will heat up with highs forecast to reach
the mid to upper 90s inland of the beaches. With elevated dew
points, it will feel even hotter. Current forecast indicates
heat indices generally peaking around 105, with a few spots up
to 108. Will continue to monitor the potential need for Heat
Advisories. Main question mark will be the extent of convection
and if that will disturb the temperature trends.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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19/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Risk for showers will translate away from KCHS
and KJZI towards KSAV through the afternoon. Most of this should
be out of both Charleston terminals by 18z. VCSH will continue
to be highlighted at KSAV through about 21z. Otherwise, VFR
through the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions will be possible
at all terminals Thursday night into Friday with low clouds and
showers/thunderstorms moving onshore.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: Breezy east winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt will
persist across the waters tonight. Seas will average 4-6 ft
nearshore waters and 5-7 ft over the Georgia offshore waters.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through
the night. Winds in the Charleston Harbor should drop just below
advisory levels by midnight, but will remain somewhat elevated
through the night. Waves in the Charleston Harbor will be 1-2 ft
this evening.

Thursday through Monday: High pressure will continue to extend
across inland areas while an inverted trough approaches and
eventually moves onshore the Southeast coast late week. This
will drive gusty east-northeast winds over the coastal waters.
Seas also remain elevated, as high as 5-6 ft across nearshore
zones and 6-8 ft beyond 20 nm. These conditions will support a
continuation of ongoing Small Craft Advisories through Friday
morning. For the Charleston Harbor, another Advisory could be
needed for Thursday as wind gusts approach 25 knots. Conditions
will start to improve on Friday. Winds and seas should then
remain below Advisory levels through early next week.

Rip Currents: A High Risk for rip currents will continue
through Thursday across all area beaches. An enhanced risk of
rip currents is expected to persist through the end of the week
as long period swell impacts the region.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tides are already more than a foot above astronomical levels,
and with a continued moderate to strong easterly wind, and the
Full Moon to occur Friday evening, those departures could grow
even more. It is possible minor coastal flooding could occur
over the coastal sections of Charleston and Colleton Counties
with the Thursday evening and maybe Friday evening high tide.
Tides elsewhere are forecast to remain below minor flood stage.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.
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&&

$$