Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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721 FXUS62 KCHS 231724 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 124 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A typical summertime pattern with High pressure in the western Atlantic and diurnal convection will prevail this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This morning: Surface low pressure remains near the Jasper/ Colleton county line this morning with showers primarily focused across the Charleston TriCounty. Taking a look at surface observations shows weak surface theta-e advection occurring across the area, with weak stabilization on the western flank of the surface low (supported by the disappearing cu field on visible). This afternoon: On the backside of the decaying surface low, winds will briefly back west/northwesterly and there may be some drier air (lower dewpoints) that edges into the western reaches of the CWA through the afternoon. But with lingering low level moisture nearer the coast, very warm temperatures, broader scale low level convergence and potential for differential heating boundaries, some additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly along and east of the I-95 corridor, with decreasing chances further westward. Daytime highs will again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s along and east of the I-95 corridor, to the middle 90s well inland with less cloud cover. Where higher dewpoints linger (closer to the coast), heat index values might climb into the 100-105 range this afternoon...below advisory criteria but it will need to be watched. Tonight: Mid level troughing begins to dig into the mid Atlantic region along with a surface trough that develops on the lee of the Appalachians and advances into the southeast states. No precipitation anticipated through tonight. But enhanced south to southwest flow will develop and may lead to marine headline concerns. Lows will again span the 70s to around 80 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a trough initially over the East Coast. It`ll gradually shift offshore as time progresses. Meanwhile, broad High pressure centered over the Southern Plains will try to creep its way towards our region. At the surface, troughing will be over the Southeast during the day, with High pressure in the western Atlantic. A cold front will slowly approach from the north, becoming located just north of our area late at night. A band of deep moisture appears to get pushed offshore in the morning. But then another band of deep moisture should move over our area well in advance of the front. Some models now indicate that PWATs could exceed 2" across our area in the afternoon. If that occurs, it would be above the 90% mark for CHS per SPC Sounding Climatology and be nearly 2 standard deviations per NAEFs. The heat will be the main concern due to 850 mb temperatures, low-level thickness values, and compression ahead of the front. Highs should peak in the mid to maybe upper 90s, except cooler at the beaches. But dew points rising into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise to ~106 degrees. This is just short of Heat Advisory criteria. But the heat will generate a decent amount of instability that should generate afternoon convection, causing temperatures to drop. The models differ on the convective potential. The synoptic models point towards isolated coverage while the long-range CAMs point towards scattered or greater coverage. Given the setup and time of year, we leaned heavily with the long-range CAMs. So afternoon convection will form well ahead of the front and along the sea breeze. While a stronger or marginally severe storm with damaging winds is possible just about anywhere, the bigger concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall underneath the thunderstorms. Though, ~15 kt of steering flow should limit QPF if no training develops. Convection will gradually decrease during the evening and overnight, but remain closer to the coast. Lows will generally be in the 70s. Tuesday: Mid-level troughing initially offshore will shift away as time progresses. Meanwhile, broad High pressure centered over the Southern Plains tries to make its way towards our region. But it`s not expected to make much progress. A weak cold front should be located just to our north at daybreak. It`s forecasted to slowly shift southward during the day and move across our area. After briefly transitioning to a stationary front over our area, it should reverse direction and head back to the north during the evening and overnight while weakening. The front will keep the highest PWATs south and offshore of our area. But they still should exceed 1.5" closer to the coast, which is near normal for this time of year. Once again, the heat will be the main concern due to 850 mb temperatures, low- level thickness values, and compression near the front. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s across most of our area, except cooler at the beaches. Dew points well into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise to ~106 degrees, which is just short of Heat Advisory criteria. Once again, another round of afternoon convection is expected. Surprisingly, the models have isolated coverage at worst, despite having a lot of instability. With the front and afternoon sea breeze as forcing mechanisms, we expected scattered or greater convective coverage in the afternoon and have POPs higher than what some of the models would indicate. A stronger or marginally severe storm will be possible, especially with hints of higher DCAPE nearby. But the concern remains the potential for locally heavy rainfall underneath the thunderstorms due to very weak steering flow and the potential for training. Convection should quickly decrease during the evening, with the overnight being mainly dry. Lows will be in the 70s. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of troughing developing over the East Coast. At the surface, a weak stationary front should be located to our west and north at daybreak. It`s forecasted to dissipate into the afternoon. Though, surface troughing should remain in place across the region. Higher PWATs should gradually creep into our area, especially along the coast. Similar to the previous two days, high temperatures are expected to reach well into the 90s for most areas and even make a run for 100 degrees in some spots. Dew points well into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise to 105-110 degrees, which could prompt Heat Advisories along the coast. But they may be brief as convection is expected along the afternoon sea breeze. Hence, we have chance POPs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level troughing initially over the East Coast will eventually transition to ridging by the end of the week. Surface troughing or weak fronts will be impacting the Southeast U.S. while High pressure is near Bermuda. This summertime pattern will yield diurnal convection. The highest POPs are each afternoon and evening, then trending lower overnight. High temperatures will be well into the 90s each day. Heat indices could rise to 108 degrees along the coast Thursday, which would prompt Heat Advisories if realized. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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KSAV: The center of the surface low is now located over western Charleston county this afternoon with most of the shower formation being towards the Charleston terminals. Behind the surface low, winds have veered around from the northwest with not much in the way of precipitation expected. A sea breeze will push inland later this afternoon with winds turning around from the south/ southeast. Overnight, only some high and mid clouds will remain with VFR conditions expected. No fog is forecast tonight as the pressure gradient remains elevated which should keep winds up. Late Monday morning, winds will again turn from the west and be 10 to 15 kts. No precipitation is expected through the morning hours of Monday. KCHS/KJZI: The center of the surface low is now located over western Charleston County this afternoon with most of the shower activity occurring in close proximity to KCHS and KJZI. A sea breeze will push inland later this afternoon with winds turning around from the south/ southeast. Showers will likely come to an end very soon with coverage decreasing through the afternoon hours. Overnight, only some high and mid clouds will remain with VFR conditions expected. No fog is forecast tonight as the pressure gradient remains elevated which should keep winds up. Late Monday morning, winds will again turn from the west and be 10 to 15 kts. No precipitation is expected through the morning hours of Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. However, convection will bring brief flight restrictions, mainly each afternoon and evening.
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&& .MARINE... Southerly winds will remain elevated (gusts 20-25 knots) across the coastal waters this morning and remnant surface low pressure migrates up through southeast South Carolina, with winds weakening some heading into the afternoon. However, pressure gradient will tighten through tonight as a surface trough/boundary approaches the southeast states heading into Monday. This will result in increasing southwest flow across the waters tonight with gusts possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels and seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Borderline, but Small Craft Advisories may eventually be needed for tonight. Extended Marine: A typical summertime pattern is expected with High pressure in the Atlantic and occasional surface troughing over the Southeast. Monday morning the pressure gradient will be elevated, leading to gusty SW winds. Winds should surge into Monday late afternoon and evening, then decrease Monday night. Gusts could approach 25 kt and we can`t rule out Small Craft Advisories for our ocean zones during this time period. Otherwise, from Tuesday onward expect gradually backing winds each day. They`ll be strongest along the land/sea interface and the Charleston Harbor with the formation of the afternoon sea breeze. Each night, winds will gradually veer, possibly surging closer to the coast. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Rip Currents: A moderate risk continues through today due to onshore winds and a moderate southeast swell. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Adam/Haines MARINE...Adam