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945
FXUS61 KGYX 231948
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front will bring scattered severe storms to the
region this evening before pushing offshore tonight. Showers
will develop Monday with an upper level low overhead. High
pressure then settles in for Tuesday before another cold front
moves in for Wednesday night. Best chances for rain and
thunderstorms will be late Wednesdays, but this should clear out
Thursday as high pressure returns for the end of the week.
Temperatures and humidity will swing with the passing of each
frontal boundary.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Likely to see a couple rounds of convection this afternoon into
early evening, with the first one approaching the CT vly attm.
There are a few damage reports to our W, and we continue to
break out from the marine lyr from W to E as well, so theres
still some time, but 18Z ALY sounding showing a bit of weak
capping layer. So, too early to say anything about reducing the
threat, and certainly some strong winds are possible into early
evening as well as heavy rain.

I think by 02-03Z should see the convection begin to move out of
the CWA or weaken, with showers coming to an end between then
and daybreak. Probably the early to mid evening will be the best
potential for heavy rain as there might be some training of
storms. It unlikely we see much, if any of the drier air mix
down to the sfc, and this will make for a mild and humid night,
with the potential for fog, Lows will mostly be in the 60s,
warmest in SW ME and srn NH where itll mostly be in the upper
60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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500 MB low will cross the CWA on Monday, and this will keep the
mtns cloudy, with some showers and thunderstorms developing
there, and perhaps moving SE toward srn NH and the coast by mid
to late afternoon. Highs range from 70-75 in the mtns to around
in srn NH and along the ME coast, as flow shifts more to the W.
It will start off humid, but should see Tds drop down into the
low 60s across much of the area by afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The upper level trough will lift out of the region to be replaced
by brief ridging. This will produce warm conditions and bring a
reprieve in the shower activity. Return flow Tuesday night will
usher in warmer and more humid conditions for Wednesdays, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area. A cold front
sinking south out of the Great Lakes on Wednesday will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday
night. The forcing with the system Wednesday night is
concerning, but for now the instability ahead of it could
will be a limiting factor. Will have to watch for heavy rain
producers as well as some concern about strong winds, but these
will be conditional and timing dependent so confidence is low
at this time. The front will bring a brief cool down for the
latter part of the work week. The airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving in Friday. Dew points in the 50s will mean
very tolerable humidity levels for late June. Another frontal
system approaches from the Great Lakes over the weekend,
bringing another opportunity for showers.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...TAFs still a struggle today, and will be into
tonight, as we are seeing some terminals improving quickly to
VFR, but should see all but KAUG/KRKD see VFR for a little while
late this afternoon into part of the evening, that is, outside
of TSRA that will be moving thru. I think, given the higher Tds,
and the light flow overnight, will see some fog, and IFR cigs at
most spots. VFR is expected to return Monday morning.

Long Term...Predominantly VFR conditions are then expected
Tuesday and early Wednesday, followed by another increased risk
of TSRA by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...SCA for tonight, as S-SW flow ahead of a cold front
persists. Winds expected to diminish by Monday morning.

Long Term...
- Increased thunderstorm risk Wednesday Night

 - Brief elevated winds and seas mid-week

A potent cold front will move through the waters Wednesday Night or
early Thursday and will feature an increased risk of thunderstorms.
Ahead of the front, elevated winds and seas will linger, with SCA
conditions possible. Southerly flow then quickly returns by
Wednesday and Thursday, with subsiding seas for late week.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Jamison