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717
FXUS61 KILN 050217
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A humid and unstable air mass will bring showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to
cross the area from the west. Drier weather will accompany high
pressure for Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Moist and unstable conditions have led to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening. Outflow boundary collisions helped
to allow for transient strengthening of a few storms that were
capable of producing strong gusty winds. Activity has already
begun to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. However, in
this warm and moist air mass, there may be a few lingering
showers tonight, especially into the Tri-State area where there
may be some better forcing/convergence late tonight.

Given the expectation for a decent amount of cloud cover, am not
expecting dense fog to be an issue. However, can`t rule out
patchy fog in more favorable fog-prone locations. Most places
will only drop into the upper 60s for low temperatures
overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast become widespread on
Wednesday as a cold front pushes in from the west with notable
moisture convergence and lift. There will be a low chance for
severe wind gusts from some of the storms that will be organized
by relatively potent winds aloft, while winds outside of storms
gust over 20 mph. Once the front reaches Eastern Ohio Wednesday
evening, drier air will work in and bring an end to precip
Wednesday night.

Clouds and precip should help to limit high temperatures on
Wednesday to the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows dropping the
the low and mid 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday morning, an upper low will be centered near Lake
Superior, expected to drift only very slowly east or southeast over
the course of the following day or two. Behind a cold front, there
will be deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley region,
bringing a significant drop in dewpoints that will last through the
weekend.

With the flow remaining generally progressive over the region
through the extended forecast period, some lower-end chances for
showers and storms look possible for most days. A dry forecast will
be used on Thursday, with a chance of showers and storms in the
northern CWA on Friday, as an area of forcing associated with the
upper low rotates through the region. Slightly greater chances are
in the forecast area-wide for Saturday and Sunday, but low-level
forcing appears weak, so this may be dependent on transient upper
forcing or waves in the flow -- hard to predict at this distance. In
addition, CAPE appears rather limited through this period, owing to
the lack of boundary layer moisture.

The overall pattern will turn a little more active early next week,
as another upper low is forecast to move into the area. Still seeing
a lot of timing and placement differences with this low, but it may
end up leading to greater precipitation chances on Monday and
Tuesday.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday (upper 70s to lower 80s)
before going slightly below normal for the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will wane near sunset as much
of this evening`s activity has been diurnally-driven. There
should be a lull across most terminals, until forcing starts to
increase later at night/early Wednesday morning where a chance
of showers will return. Some guidance also suggests some lower
ceilings developing either later tonight or Wednesday morning.
Confidence in IFR is low, but have allowed for MVFR conditions
for most terminals. Exception was KLUK where included IFR
visibility for fog as well. An increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected by afternoon as a cold front
approaches the area.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into early Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...BPP