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418
FXUS63 KILX 051514
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1014 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning,
  bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front should
  exit to the east of Illinois around early afternoon.

- A mainly dry pattern sets up starting this afternoon. A small
  (10- 20% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as
  some MCS type systems pass to our south.

-  High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next
   Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the I-55
corridor...with widely scattered showers/thunder lingering across
the eastern half of the KILX CWA. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP are
showing re-development along the cold front across east-central
Illinois this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes modestly
unstable with SBCAPEs peaking at 1500-2000J/kg. Have updated PoPs
to better reflect current trends and have added likely PoPs
along/southeast of a Danville to Effingham line after 17z/12pm.
Rain chances will end across the far E/SE by late afternoon.
Further west, skies have cleared northwest of the Illinois River
and this clearing will work its way eastward to the I-57 corridor
by mid-afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees.

Barnes
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some
showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of
it. Severe threats appear to be low with these storms. These storms
will be scattered in a semi-line formation. As it works eastward,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. The activity should be out of
the area by 18/19z this early afternoon (based on the 06z HRRR),
exiting to the east into Indiana.

There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight,
which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern
counties of the CWA. However, confidence is low so only have 15-20%
POPs in the forecast for late this evening through tonight. Once
these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our
southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping
us in the middle. This will allow a mostly dry period for the
extended forecast. The next tiny chance for rain comes Saturday
and Sunday as MCS activity transverses to our south. There is a
10-20% chance that the systems move just north enough to affect
our southern portion of the CWA. As we move closer we can get a
better idea of the exact location of these southern MCS systems
and if they will directly affect us here in central and
southeastern Illinois.

Daytime temperatures following this cold front will hang around the
mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Then it will warm back up
into the 80s starting Wednesday afternoon. CPC shows below normal
temperatures for the 6-10 day period and near normal to above for
the 8-14 day period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will sweep across the central IL terminals through
the morning, producing scattered TSRA for the I-72 corridor
southward through 14Z, as well as a band of MVFR cigs. This region
of MVFR cigs will last a few hours, then clear out as VFR
conditions return for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds
SW around 10 kts before the front arrives, followed by NW winds
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 16Z-20Z. Winds
diminishing after 03Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$