-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
428
FXUS62 KMFL 110524
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Not much overall change in the latest forecast. Short-term PoPs
increased slightly based on latest guidance, and numerous to
widespread showers/scattered thunderstorms can be expected
tomorrow. Will have to monitor for flash flooding potential where
repeated rounds of rainfall are realized tomorrow. Expect some
intermittent clearing, but also periods of prevailing light rain
that may precede heavier showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Ideal conditions are in place this week for a prolonged heavy rain
event across South FL. At the surface, a frontal boundary is slowly
sagging south across the deep south and is expected to stall in the
vicinity of northern FL tomorrow. At the upper levels, we`ll see
troughing over the eastern US with mid/upper level high pressure
over the central Atlantic. This setup will result in enhanced
tropical moisture pulled up across the area, which is expected to
remain pooled over the region for much of the week.

Today is a bit of a transition day with weak ridging starting to
break down over the area. Moist southerly flow will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and
with the slow motion of these storms there could still be an urban
flood risk. High temps will be in the lower 90s and with dewpoints
in the upper 70s, this will result in heat indices over 100 degrees
this afternoon, and some places that avoid rainfall may briefly
approach advisory criteria.

Overnight into tomorrow is when conditions really start to become
concerning. PWAT values will increase to around 2.3 inches over the
east coast metro and in excess of 2.5 inches over SW FL. Most hi-res
guidance is in pretty good agreement of periods of heavy rain
starting over SW FL early Tuesday morning and then spreading across
the rest of South FL during the day. With these types of PWAT values
which are near local maximums, expect intense rain rates which will
quickly cause flooding concerns in urban and poor drainage
locations. As for rainfall amounts, the current forecast is
generally 2-5 inches across the east coast metro, and 5-8 inches
over SW FL, with locally higher amounts possible just through
Wednesday. Due to this, a Flood Watch will go into effect at
midnight tonight and run through Wednesday evening.

With plenty of rain and cloud cover on Tuesday, high temps will only
reach the low to mid 80s over much of the area, with possibly some
upper 80s over SE FL if rain holds off a bit over that location.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Mid to upper level troughing will remain in place across the Gulf
of Mexico as well as the Florida Peninsula through the end of the
week. At the surface, the frontal boundary stalled out over
Northern Florida will gradually wash out as the week progresses.
This will help to keep a moisture rich southerly flow in place
during this time frame. As this deep layer moisture advection
continues through the rest of the week, PWAT values will remain
near 2.5 inches or higher across the region through Friday. This
will result in the potential for widespread rainfall to continue
through the end of the week with multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall pushing through South Florida during this time frame.
When adding in the possible rainfall amounts through the early
part of the week, rainfall totals for the entire week could range
from 6 to 10 inches across the east coast metro areas and 10 to 15
inches across Southwest Florida with locally higher amounts
possible. If these trends continue, this could result in the Flood
Watch potentially being extended across South Florida as the
exact details get ironed out. This will continue to be monitored
as the week progresses. With increased cloud cover in place, high
temperatures will be held down and will remain in the lower to
mid 80s across most areas through the end of the week.

As the upcoming weekend progresses, global and ensemble guidance
is showing signs of a change in the weather pattern as mid level
ridging tries to build back into the area and the mid level trough
retrogrades westward in the Gulf of Mexico. This will help to
gradually push the deepest moisture advection back off further
into the Gulf of Mexico and allow for drier air to push into the
region. This could potentially result in a return to a more
typical summertime pattern across South Florida especially heading
towards the second half of the weekend. Uncertainty does remain
high for this part of the forecast as it is at the end of the
forecast period as well as timing differences in the guidance with
the westward push of the mid level trough. This will continue to
be monitored as the week progresses. If some drier air were to be
able to work into the region during this time frame, high
temperatures will gradually moderate as the weekend progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Challenging period as conditions will gradually deteriorate with
periods of prevailing MVFR or even IFR conditions intermittently.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will encroach on TAF
sites beginning early this morning, and continuing through the
vast majority of the period. CIGs less than 1000 ft AGL and
significant VIS reductions are the primary impacts, as well as
lightning and locally strong wind gusts embedded near/around TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
area waters the next several days, which will result in locally
hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas generally 2
ft or less and cautionary southerly winds expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Miami            78  87  78  85 /  90  90  90 100
West Kendall     76  88  76  85 /  90  90  90 100
Opa-Locka        77  89  77  85 /  90  90  90 100
Homestead        78  88  77  85 /  90  90  90 100
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  77  85 /  90 100  90 100
N Ft Lauderdale  78  87  77  85 /  90 100  90 100
Pembroke Pines   78  89  78  85 /  90  90  90 100
West Palm Beach  76  87  75  85 /  70 100  90 100
Boca Raton       77  88  76  84 /  90 100  90 100
Naples           77  86  77  84 /  70 100  90 100
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto