-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
375
FXUS62 KMFL 101817
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
217 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Ideal conditions are in place this week for a prolonged heavy rain
event across South FL. At the surface, a frontal boundary is slowly
sagging south across the deep south and is expected to stall in the
vicinity of northern FL tomorrow. At the upper levels, we`ll see
troughing over the eastern US with mid/upper level high pressure
over the central Atlantic. This setup will result in enhanced
tropical moisture pulled up across the area, which is expected to
remain pooled over the region for much of the week.

Today is a bit of a transition day with weak ridging starting to
break down over the area. Moist southerly flow will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and
with the slow motion of these storms there could still be an urban
flood risk. High temps will be in the lower 90s and with dewpoints
in the upper 70s, this will result in heat indices over 100 degrees
this afternoon, and some places that avoid rainfall may briefly
approach advisory criteria.

Overnight into tomorrow is when conditions really start to become
concerning. PWAT values will increase to around 2.3 inches over the
east coast metro and in excess of 2.5 inches over SW FL. Most hi-res
guidance is in pretty good agreement of periods of heavy rain
starting over SW FL early Tuesday morning and then spreading across
the rest of South FL during the day. With these types of PWAT values
which are near local maximums, expect intense rain rates which will
quickly cause flooding concerns in urban and poor drainage
locations. As for rainfall amounts, the current forecast is
generally 2-5 inches across the east coast metro, and 5-8 inches
over SW FL, with locally higher amounts possible just through
Wednesday. Due to this, a Flood Watch will go into effect at
midnight tonight and run through Wednesday evening.

With plenty of rain and cloud cover on Tuesday, high temps will only
reach the low to mid 80s over much of the area, with possibly some
upper 80s over SE FL if rain holds off a bit over that location.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A very wet and unsettled weather pattern is shaping up across South Florida for
the middle and end of the week. A mid level shortwave will dive
southeastward through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, and then
towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline as well as the Gulf of
Mexico for the middle to latter portion of the week. At the
surface, high pressure will remain parked in the western Atlantic
as a surface trough pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will keep a south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South
Florida throughout the rest of the week which will allow for deep
tropical moisture advection to take place through this period.
The latest guidance continues to show PWAT values increasing to
2.5 inches or higher for Wednesday through Friday. With this
increased tropical moisture flowing into the region, rainfall will
become widespread across the area during the middle to later
portion of the week. There could be periods of heavy rainfall
which may lead to the potential for flooding concerns across the
region through the end of the week as multiple rounds of heavy
downpours train over the same areas.

As of now, If the strongest moisture advection and positive vorticity advection
were to push further east, then larger amounts of rain could be
observed and is something to be aware of. However, at this time we
expect an overall active week and the exact details will have to
be refined in the coming days. While details remain uncertain in
regards to specific amounts of rainfall, confidence is increasing
that a multiple day widespread rainfall event could take shape
across the area. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

With increased cloud cover in place, temperatures will be held down across the
region through the middle and end of the week. High temperatures
during this time frame will generally remain in the lower to mid
80s across most of South Florida.

The upper low will begin to retrograde westward into the
central/western GOM later this weekend, which should focus the
tropical moisture west of the area. If this evolution holds
generally drier conditions could be expected by Sunday with low-
lvl easterly flow tending to increase as high pressure builds
north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will result in brief periods of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities,
along with erratic winds near thunderstorms. Outside of storms,
the light SE sea breeze across the east coast metro should turn
back to SW later this afternoon into early evening. Periods of
heavy rain are expected on Tuesday with prevailing MVFR ceilings
likely, and some IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible,
especially after 10Z at APF and 12Z for the remaining TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
area waters the next several days, which will result in locally
hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas generally 2
ft or less and cautionary southerly winds expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  85  78  86 /  70  80  80  80
West Kendall     77  87  76  87 /  70  80  70  80
Opa-Locka        79  88  78  88 /  70  90  70  80
Homestead        78  87  77  87 /  70  80  80  80
Fort Lauderdale  80  85  78  86 /  70  90  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  79  85  77  86 /  70  90  70  80
Pembroke Pines   80  89  78  89 /  70  90  70  80
West Palm Beach  78  85  75  86 /  70  90  70  90
Boca Raton       78  87  76  88 /  70  90  70  80
Naples           78  86  78  88 /  80  90  80  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF