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464
FXUS62 KMFL 101734
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
134 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

To begin the work week, large scale troughing over the eastern Seaboard will
pivot further southwards across the deep south states with an
attendant frontal boundary pushing southwards simultaneously. The
front will eventually become stalled out across the northern
Florida Peninsula and panhandle on Tuesday. The presence of this
stationary boundary and consistent tropical moisture advection out
of the south into the South Florida region will allow abundant
moisture to pool in the area. PWATs will rise to between 2.0-2.2
inches as early as Monday and are expected to remain around that
level through the period. As a result, expect precipitation to
become increasingly widespread, especially on Tuesday as extra
positive vorticity impulses are expected to advect into and
through the region along with the heavily enhanced moisture. Low
level convergence looks to be maximized near the west coast, which
would favor the highest QPF at least initially for west coast
areas compared to others in the short term period ending Tuesday
evening.

Due to the expected increasing rain, the biggest concern for this period will
be the risk for urban flooding as a result of the chance for
training showers and thunderstorms over the same areas or slow-
moving thunderstorms under a weak flow pattern currently. The
entire CWA will be under a slight risk in WPC`s Excessive
Rainfall Outlook (ERO) on Tuesday. High temperatures will top out
in the low 90s on Monday and upper 80s on Tuesday. With increased
cloud cover and rain expected, no heat products should be
necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A very wet and unsettled weather pattern is shaping up across South Florida for
the middle and end of the week. A mid level shortwave will dive
southeastward through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, and then
towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline as well as the Gulf of
Mexico for the middle to latter portion of the week. At the
surface, high pressure will remain parked in the western Atlantic
as a surface trough pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will keep a south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South
Florida throughout the rest of the week which will allow for deep
tropical moisture advection to take place through this period.
The latest guidance continues to show PWAT values increasing to
2.5 inches or higher for Wednesday through Friday. With this
increased tropical moisture flowing into the region, rainfall will
become widespread across the area during the middle to later
portion of the week. There could be periods of heavy rainfall
which may lead to the potential for flooding concerns across the
region through the end of the week as multiple rounds of heavy
downpours train over the same areas.

As of now, If the strongest moisture advection and positive vorticity advection
were to push further east, then larger amounts of rain could be
observed and is something to be aware of. However, at this time we
expect an overall active week and the exact details will have to
be refined in the coming days. While details remain uncertain in
regards to specific amounts of rainfall, confidence is increasing
that a multiple day widespread rainfall event could take shape
across the area. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

With increased cloud cover in place, temperatures will be held down across the
region through the middle and end of the week. High temperatures
during this time frame will generally remain in the lower to mid
80s across most of South Florida.

The upper low will begin to retrograde westward into the
central/western GOM later this weekend, which should focus the
tropical moisture west of the area. If this evolution holds
generally drier conditions could be expected by Sunday with low-
lvl easterly flow tending to increase as high pressure builds
north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will result in brief periods of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities,
along with erratic winds near thunderstorms. Outside of storms,
the light SE sea breeze across the east coast metro should turn
back to SW later this afternoon into early evening. Periods of
heavy rain are expected on Tuesday with prevailing MVFR ceilings
likely, and some IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible,
especially after 10Z at APF and 12Z for the remaining TAF sites.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters
today and becoming increasing numerous Tuesday and beyond, with
locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms. Outside of
convection, southerly winds will increase later today into Tuesday
with the potential for cautionary to near-hazardous winds on
Tuesday (particularly over the Gulf waters). Seas should remain 3
ft or less through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week,
with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible starting Tuesday which
would be around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint
exact timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are
possible from Tuesday through at least Friday across South
Florida. Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may
be needed this upcoming week as details come more into focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Miami            80  85  78  86 /  70  80  80  80
West Kendall     77  87  76  87 /  70  80  70  80
Opa-Locka        79  88  78  88 /  70  90  70  80
Homestead        78  87  77  87 /  70  80  80  80
Fort Lauderdale  80  85  78  86 /  70  90  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  79  85  77  86 /  70  90  70  80
Pembroke Pines   80  89  78  89 /  70  90  70  80
West Palm Beach  78  85  75  86 /  70  90  70  90
Boca Raton       78  87  76  88 /  70  90  70  80
Naples           78  86  78  88 /  80  90  80  90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF