-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
637
FXUS62 KMFL 091236
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
836 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 830 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

No major updates to the near term forecast. With less upper level
support today and more dry air aloft, there has been little in the
way of shower activity over land early this morning. That is
expected to change late this morning into this afternoon as temps
heat up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today, and with light
steering flows, urban flooding will again be a concern. Also added
a limited risk for waterspouts over both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters, as conditions are ideal especially this morning for
development with any weak shower or fair weather cumulus. At least
one waterspout was already reported earlier this morning east of
Miami Beach. Heat indices will again approach advisory criteria
this afternoon, but like yesterday the timing of the convection
may prevent many locations from reaching criteria for very long.
Will monitor that closely, and if needed may issue a short-fused
heat advisory.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The mid/upper level trough that has been advecting through the region will move
further off to the east and offshore on Sunday, but hi-res models
depict a surface trough across the peninsula during the day.
This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the primary focus for
convection on Sunday. With steering flows remaining light, will
need to monitor the threat again for isolated urban flooding
across the metro. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s.
Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will play a
role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed across the
metro, but decision will remain tricky with afternoon/evening
convection expected. If convection and cloud cover increases
earlier in the morning, an advisory can likely hold off but on the
contrary it would likely become necessary.

Monday will largely be a similar setup, although we will start to see a mid to
upper level low form and strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico that
will play a factor in the weather for later in the week.
Nonetheless, expect Monday to see more convection during peak
heating hours and for the sea breezes to initiate most of the
stronger storms on Monday. Due to an ongoing weak steering flow,
will have to monitor for more urban flooding chances on Monday.
Highs on Monday will be around 90 to the low 90s for most areas
and mid to upper 80s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

To begin the long term period, a mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will
remain over the Western Atlantic waters as a mid to upper level
low begins to take shape over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the steering flow to remain south-southwest over
South Florida which results in continuous deep tropical moisture
advection into the region from the Caribbean Sea. In return,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are projected to
continue developing over South Florida each day with the focus
over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes
collide.

Beginning on Tuesday, long range models are highlighting high pressure
remaining over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper
level low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the
models are showing a tropical low pressure system advecting
northward from the Caribbean Sea into the center of the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation
of the south-southwest wind flow over South Florida and allow for
very deep tropical moisture to constantly work into South Florida
from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, numerous rain showers along
with some thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida for the
middle to end of the week. Some of the showers and thunderstorms
could produce periods of heavy rain over South Florida during this
time frame. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track
of the low but it should become more confined over the next couple
of days. More information is provided in the hydro section below.

Highs for this time period extending Tuesday and beyond will be cooler over
South Florida mainly in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rain.
However, the lows will be warm across South Florida with mid to
upper 70s interior areas to around 80 metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. This may
result in erratic winds and sub VFR ceilings/visibilities. Light
and VRB winds early this morning becoming SE around 10 kts late
morning through the afternoon, except APF which will have a
westerly Gulf breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters the
rest of this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas at times. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions
are expected with winds 5-15 kts and out of the south/southwest
and seas 2 ft or less. Southerly winds will begin to increase next
week, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely through the
week as tropical moisture spreads into the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Medium range guidance is indicating that PWAT values over South
Florida will be increasing to 2.5 to 2.8 inches by the middle to
end of next week due to the deep tropical moisture advecting into
South Florida from the southwest. These PWAT values will be near
or at the maximum PWAT values for this time of year.

These high PWAT values will support the potential for heavy
rainfall to occur over the region from Tuesday through at least
Friday. This rainfall could result in flooding, particularly as
the ground becomes increasingly saturated through the period. At
this time there is still considerable uncertainty on both the
potential accumulation values as well as the placement of the
heaviest rainfall, however it is possible that a flood watch will
need to be issued for portions of South Florida in the coming
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            92  79  90  79 /  60  40  80  60
West Kendall     91  76  92  76 /  60  40  80  60
Opa-Locka        92  79  92  79 /  60  40  80  60
Homestead        91  79  90  78 /  60  50  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  89  79 /  60  40  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  90  79 /  60  40  80  60
Pembroke Pines   93  79  93  79 /  60  40  80  60
West Palm Beach  92  77  92  76 /  70  40  80  60
Boca Raton       92  78  92  78 /  60  40  80  60
Naples           91  80  90  79 /  60  50  80  80
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF