-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
996
FXUS62 KMFL 081708
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Unsettled weather expected this weekend with a mid/upper level
trough across the area today and slowly moving off to the east
tomorrow, and surface/upper level high pressure over the northern
Gulf trying to nose into the area. Morning ACARS soundings across
South FL show fairly deep moisture up through about 500 mb, and PWAT
values running 2-2.2 inches from west to east. This will allow for
efficient rain makers today as we saw this morning across portions
of the east coast metro and over towards Naples. While that
temporarily stabilized the atmosphere, things should destabilize
again late morning into the afternoon as we approach peak heating.
Additional showers and storms are expected through this evening.
Locally heavy rain will be the main threat, however an isolated
stronger storm with gusty winds can`t be ruled out especially across
the lake region and over into Palm Beach. High temps today will be
in the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s and peak heat indices will be over 100 degrees this
afternoon. While some locations may approach heat advisory criteria,
the expected afternoon convection and cloud cover will should keep
many locations from reaching criteria, so held off on headlines for
now.

Convection over the land will wane late this evening and it`ll be a
mild night with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to
around 80 close to the coasts. Overnight precip will be almost a
carbon copy of this morning with most convection remaining over the
waters, however some pre-dawn showers and storms may impact the far
southern peninsula again.

On Sunday the mid/upper level trough moves further off to the east,
however hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula
during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the
primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows
remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated
urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to
mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will
play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed
across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with
afternoon/evening convection expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Heading into the early portion of this coming week, another amplifying mid level
trough will dig across the eastern seaboard which will quickly
begin to flatten the mid level ridge over the region. At the
surface, the frontal boundary stalled out to the north will help
to keep the south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South
Florida into early next week. With plenty of moisture in place,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each
afternoon and evening as the sea breezes push inland and interact
with each other. The highest chances will remain across the
interior and east coast. Hot temperatures will continue on Monday
with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s area wide. Peak
heat index values could range from 105 to 110 each day with some
localized areas potentially rising higher than 110 across the
interior.

Heading towards the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty level in the
forecast rises as a mid to upper level disturbance pushes towards
the Gulf Coast states and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At
the surface, a broad disturbance may slowly try to organize during
this time frame. This will allow for deep tropical moisture
advection to take place across the region during the middle of the
week. Regardless of whether or not any development takes place,
the potential for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be in place for the middle to latter portion of the week as
southerly wind flow continues. This will also introduce the
potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding during this
time frame, however, the exact details of where this sets up
remains highly uncertain with differences in guidance. With the
increased cloud cover possible for the middle portion of the week,
this could provide some relief from the hot temperatures. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this
evening may result in erratic winds and sub-VFR ceilings and
visibilities, especially between 18-22Z. Outside of thunderstorms,
light SE winds for the east coast terminals and westerly at APF.
Winds become light and variable late tonight and then become light
westerly towards dawn. Additional showers and storms are possible
at FLL/MIA/TMB/OPF early Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters
this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with
winds 5-15 kts and out of the south/southwest and seas 2 ft or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  92  80  90 /  30  60  40  70
West Kendall     76  92  77  92 /  30  60  40  60
Opa-Locka        79  92  79  93 /  30  60  40  70
Homestead        77  91  78  90 /  40  60  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  80  90 /  30  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  79  90 /  30  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   80  93  80  94 /  30  60  40  70
West Palm Beach  77  93  78  92 /  30  60  30  60
Boca Raton       78  93  78  92 /  30  60  40  60
Naples           80  91  80  92 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF