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052
FXUS62 KMFL 130003
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
803 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 755 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A late evening/overnight lull in the heavy rain could allow for
some drainage of flooded areas but progress will be slow.
Therefore, have transitioned the collection of Flash Flood
Warnings to a larger, consolidated Flood Warning for portions of
Miami-Dade and Broward County through 8 AM Thursday. Adjoining
Flood Advisories remain through 10 PM and we will monitor
conditions in case those warrant extensions. Otherwise, the threat
of excessive rain remains a concern heading into Thursday with the
Flood Watch continuing areawide until Friday evening. Portions of
Collier County are also saturated, so a similar Flood Warning is
in effect for a large portion of that county and portions of
Hendry County near Big Cypress due to two days and counting of
excessive rainfall which has led to flooding and what is expected
a long duration of ground saturation this week.

In terms of the hourly forecast, made adjustments for the rain-
cooled air and dewpoints in the latest observed trends. Otherwise,
few changes are anticipated through the rest of the evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A pretty sloppy setup this afternoon as precipitation overspreads
South Florida. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over central
Florida this afternoon as a few shortwave impulses pivot into the
area and interact with the anomalous tropical moisture (PWATs
2.3-2.5 inches) that remains pooled over the area. Areas of the
interior have already seen broad swatches of 4-8 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, while the East Coast has just begun
to see accumulations increase with 2-4 inches across portions of
Miami- Dade and Broward counties. As rainfall continues, portions
of the region could see several additional inches, enhancing the
concern for considerable flash flooding especially for areas that
already saw 4-6 inches of rain on Tuesday. The possibility for
severe weather (tornadoes and gusty winds) also remains a
secondary threat through the evening. Some of the discrete cells
today have shown rotation signatures and ACARS soundings support
a threat for additional quick spin-up tornadoes. With ample cloud
coverage and precipitation over the area, high temperatures will
remain in low-mid 80s over much of the region.

The only notable change to the synoptic pattern on Thursday will
be the development of an intensifying sfc. low over the stalled
boundary to our north, just off the SE Coast. This low (which may
eventually acquire subtropical characteristics over the Gulf
Stream) will shift NE in the late week period, but looks to at
least in the short term keep the subtropical moisture tap in place
over our area through Thursday (i.e. the classic cyclone moisture
tail).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.Thursday Night To Friday...
The low level trough will continue to remain over South Florida
from the tropical low over Northwest Atlantic waters to Southwest
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of PWAT
values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which is near the maximum value
for this time of year. This means that we can still see very
heavy rainfall thursday night into Friday over South Florida.
Additional rainfall amounts during this time frame can still be 2
to 4 inches over the area on top of the already heavy rainfall
that been occurring over the area. This will continue to lead to
possible flooding conditions. Therefore, the Flood Watch has been
extended until Friday evening for all of South Florida.

There could also be possibility of some severe weather over South
Florida during this time frame, as some cooler air in the mid
levels of the atmosphere works down the Florida peninsula from
the north. 500 mb temperatures should be able to get down to -7 to

-8C. Primary impacts will be mainly gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
 but cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

.This Weekend...
The trough of low pressure will remain over South Florida this
weekend keeping the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which
is still near the maximum value for this time of year. Therefore,
the heavy rainfall will continue across South Florida this
weekend. POPs will remain in the likely range over South Florida
this weekend. Therefore, the Flood watch could be needed to be
extended into the weekend over South Florida in later updates.

Highs will also remain cooler in the 80s due to the cloud cover
and showers and thunderstorms. Lows will also remain in the mid
to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas.

.Early Next Week...
The long range models are showing that the trough of low pressure
should weaken early next week allowing for high pressure to build
back into the area. This should allow for some drier air to work
into South Florida leading to more of typical summer weather
pattern with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Unsettled pattern continues to generally sub-VFR through the
period with bouts of LIFR possible with heavy rainfall. Short-
fused AMDs should be expected. An overnight lull could open a
window but that may quickly come to an end in the morning.
Activity could again flourish late morning into the afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Near cautionary southerly winds will persist over the area waters
today as the area remains south of a stalled front and associated
surface low. These winds will decrease Thursday into the late
week period as the low progresses northeast into the Atlantic
waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely through
much of the upcoming week resulting in periods of locally higher
winds and seas. Outside of storms wave heights should remain 3 ft
or less through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            77  86  76  85 /  80  80 100 100
West Kendall     75  88  74  86 /  80  80 100 100
Opa-Locka        76  88  75  87 /  80  80 100 100
Homestead        76  88  75  86 /  80  80 100  90
Fort Lauderdale  77  85  76  84 /  80  80 100 100
N Ft Lauderdale  77  86  76  85 /  80  80  90 100
Pembroke Pines   77  89  76  88 /  80  80  90 100
West Palm Beach  75  86  74  86 /  80  90  90 100
Boca Raton       76  87  75  86 /  80  80  90 100
Naples           77  87  77  87 /  80  90 100 100
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...RAG