-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
922
FXUS62 KMFL 081252
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
852 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 847 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Periods of heavy rain occurred earlier this morning across Miami-
Dade and over Collier county. While the east coast metro is fairly
stable at the moment, the atmosphere will quickly destabilize
late this morning into early this afternoon and more convection is
expected through the evening hours. Held off on any heat advisory
for today due to the rain and cloud cover. Areas that don`t see
rain this afternoon will certainly see heat indices around
advisory criteria, however convection coverage should be
widespread enough to prevent many locations from reaching
criteria. Regardless, it`ll be another hot and humid day across
South FL will afternoon high temps in the lower 90s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

South Florida will remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through Saturday under
the base of a mid-level trough that stretches up across the
Eastern US. South-southwest flow in the low levels will continue
to pump a hot and humid air mass into the region, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices in the triple
digits for most areas. Thus, Heat Advisories may be necessary
again for today. Scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms could temporarily cool areas down as they move
through via cold pool formation or from the rain in general. With
relatively cool mid-level temps around -7C and MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg each afternoon, a few strong to even severe storms cannot be
ruled out, especially along the sea breeze boundaries. Most storms
will be garden-variety, capable of producing gusty winds, small
hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. The most likely
component to result in isolated severe storms will be downbursts
of wind from storms as deeper cores collapse.

The mid-level trough will depart the area on Sunday, allowing for a more stable
pattern to set up with weak ridging over South Florida, but we
will still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
across South Florida due to daytime surface heating and cool
enough temperatures aloft to lead to sufficient instability. That
said, coverage will likely be less on Sunday since convection will
not have extra lift provided by the shortwave trough, so
development will be led by daytime heating and the sea breezes
given sufficient moisture sticking around.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Heading into the early portion of this coming week, another amplifying mid level
trough will dig across the eastern seaboard which will quickly
begin to flatten the mid level ridge over the region. At the
surface, the frontal boundary stalled out to the north will help
to keep the south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South
Florida into early next week. With plenty of moisture in place,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each
afternoon and evening as the sea breezes push inland and interact
with each other. The highest chances will remain across the
interior and east coast. Hot temperatures will continue on Monday
with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s area wide. Peak
heat index values could range from 105 to 110 each day with some
localized areas potentially rising higher than 110 across the
interior.

Heading towards the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty level in the
forecast rises as a mid to upper level disturbance pushes towards
the Gulf Coast states and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At
the surface, a broad disturbance may slowly try to organize during
this time frame. This will allow for deep tropical moisture
advection to take place across the region during the middle of the
week. Regardless of whether or not any development takes place,
the potential for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be in place for the middle to latter portion of the week as
southerly wind flow continues. This will also introduce the
potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding during this
time frame, however, the exact details of where this sets up
remains highly uncertain with differences in guidance. With the
increased cloud cover possible for the middle portion of the week,
this could provide some relief from the hot temperatures. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

SCT showers and thunderstorms across South FL today will result in
periods of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, along with erratic
winds in and near thunderstorms. Light southeasterly flow early
this morning becoming southwesterly late morning and then will
likely become S/SE again this afternoon across the east coast
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Generally benign boating conditions will prevail across the coastal waters
through the weekend and into early next week with winds generally
10kts or less through the weekend. Only exception will be in the
vicinity of any showers or thunderstorms that form, which will
bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas are
expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            92  79  91  80 /  70  40  70  40
West Kendall     91  75  92  77 /  70  40  70  40
Opa-Locka        92  78  93  79 /  70  40  70  40
Homestead        90  78  90  78 /  60  40  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  90  80 /  70  40  70  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  91  79 /  60  30  60  40
Pembroke Pines   94  80  94  80 /  70  40  70  40
West Palm Beach  92  77  92  78 /  60  40  60  30
Boca Raton       92  78  93  78 /  60  40  60  40
Naples           91  80  92  80 /  60  50  60  40
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF