-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
052
FXUS62 KMFL 062351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

 - Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to
   severe storms possible through this evening.

 - Hot and humid conditions forecast today and throughout the
   weekend, with peak heat indices in the 103 to 110 range.

A potentially active afternoon and evening is on tap for portions
of South Florida as today`s round of sea-breeze-focused showers
and thunderstorms may have a bit more juice to them, thanks to an
approaching mid-level shortwave. This feature will bring 500 mb
temps down to around -8 to -9 C, which will combine with
steepening mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg to provide an environment that could support strong to
severe storms capable of producing large hail (up to 1.75" in
diameter) and damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. While strong to severe storms may
be possible across much of South Florida, they are most likely to
occur across the northern and eastern areas (Lake O and East Coast
metro). SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5), with surrounding areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).
Showers and storms are anticipated to initiate in the early
afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries and propagate inland
over the Interior and towards Lake O by late afternoon and
evening. The approaching shortwave and associated surface low over
the Southeast US has also started to turn surface winds more
southerly, ushering in a warmer and more humid airmass. This will
lead to hot and humid conditions, with high temps in the low to
mid 90s across the area, and heat indices ranging from 103-108.

For Friday, the aforementioned trough continues migrating
eastward, while an associated sfc frontal boundary pushes
southward across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds
across the area to the southwest, continuing to advect warmer air
in from the south. This will help in keeping the current trend of
abnormally warm temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Heat indices will likewise climb into the 105-110 range
for most areas, but scattered showers and thunderstorms could
provide some relief wherever they form. Conditions will not be as
favorable for severe thunderstorms, but we could still see a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail, gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

To open the weekend, a mid-level trough will advect eastward
towards the Florida peninsula with its attendant surface boundary
approaching northern Florida before stalling out. This will lead
to a south-southwesterly surface wind regime across the area. Sea
breezes will be the primary driver for ascent and thunderstorm
development through the weekend, although with enhanced southerly
flow, temperatures aloft will begin to warm to the -4 to -6 degree
range, so this should limit stronger storm potential. PoPs will
be around 50-60% for most locations this weekend and convection
should trend more towards the east coast compared to the west
coast under light west- southwest flow. High temperatures could
reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas in the interior
potentially topping out in the triple digits. Heat indices will
climb into the mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and
thus there is an increasing potential for Heat Advisory or even
Excessive Heat Warning issuance for portions of the area.

For early to mid next week, guidance starts to vary more
drastically. Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential
for a disturbance to form in the Caribbean or GOM which would
have the potential to impact the region at some point next week.
Local weather across South Florida will depend heavily on the
exact track and development of this disturbance. Model guidance
continues to vary drastically, so there is no real consensus yet
regarding potential impacts for the area. For now, keeping POPs
capped at 70% for each afternoon through the middle of next week,
although these may need to be nudged upward (or even downward) as
guidance comes into better agreement regarding the disturbance. At
the very least, a disturbance to our west in the Gulf would only
reinforce our already southerly flow, so rain chances will likely
remain higher next week regardless as enhanced moisture filters
across the area from the south. Stay tuned for more through the
week regarding this potential.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

SHRA/TSRA continues over inland South FLorida this evening and
should gradually wane in intensity after sunset. Mostly VFR
conditions overnight once convection dissipates with sea-breeze
circulations picking up once again tomorrow afternoon. TEMPOs may
be needed if SHRA/TSRA directly impacts terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend, with winds in the 5-10kt
range. Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm
that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds. Seas will remain in the 2 to 3 feet range in the Atlantic
waters, and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Miami            79  91  79  91 /  30  60  40  50
West Kendall     75  93  76  93 /  30  60  40  50
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  93 /  30  60  40  50
Homestead        78  91  77  90 /  20  60  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  90 /  30  60  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  78  91 /  20  60  40  50
Pembroke Pines   79  95  79  94 /  30  60  40  50
West Palm Beach  78  94  76  93 /  20  60  40  50
Boca Raton       78  93  77  93 /  20  60  40  50
Naples           78  92  79  93 /  30  60  20  50
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Hadi