-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
860
FXUS62 KMFL 111757
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A wet period today through the end of the week is expected across
South FL. NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the
eastern Gulf, with a low chance (10%) of development over the next
48 hours. Meanwhile, there is a stalled frontal boundary to our
north across northern FL. At the mid/upper levels, there is a
short-wave over the deep south stretching into the northern Gulf,
and high pressure over the central Atlantic. This is all resulting
in record PWAT values across the area of 2.3-2.8 inches as shown
by our morning 12Z sounding and the ACARS soundings. This avocado
express of tropical moisture will pool across South FL and will
result in periods of heavy rainfall through Wednesday. Additional
rainfall amounts through Wednesday evening of 2-4 inches across
the east coast metro and 4-6 inches over the interior and SW FL
are expected. Locally higher amounts are a strong possibility,
especially with high rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour
expected at times. These high rainfall rates will definitely cause
issues for urban and poor drainage locations, and much of the
metro areas is already saturated from rainfall this morning. The
Flood Watch for all of South FL continues through Wednesday
evening. It may be extended beyond Wednesday, but that decision
will be made overnight or during the day tomorrow as more hi-res
data for Thursday becomes available, and we get the chance to see
how today plays out.

A limited threat for today that shouldn`t be discounted is the
tornado threat. Some of the discrete cells today have shown some
weak rotation, and ACARS soundings support a threat for a quick
spin-up tornado, especially over inland areas and over towards the
SW FL coast.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be cooler thanks to the
rainfall and cloud cover, only reaching the low to middle 80s.
Tonight`s overnight lows will remain mild only falling to the mid
and upper 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The wet and active period will continue for the first half of the
extended period as the boundary to our north remains stalled and the
tropical moisture remains focused over south-Central Florida. A mid-
lvl shortwave trough will pivot southeastward and phase with the
longwave east-coast trough in the Wednesday night-Thursday time
frame, amplifying and elongating the trough from SW-NE. Ultimately
the building ridge to our north will cause the increasingly
enlongated trough to split Saturday, with the northern split lifting
northeast while the southern split looks to retrograde into the
Central GOM. This will hopefully result in the tropical moisture
plume being reoriented west of the area by Sunday-Monday with mid-
lvl ridging then building into the eastern CONUS in that time
period.

In terms of sensible weather, the main concern will remain the
flooding potential Thursday/Friday as the lingering tropical
moisture will interact with upper-lvl disturbances pivoting through
the base of the trough. Although raw totals don`t look quite as high
as the initial surge on Tuesday/Wednesday (although they could be
comparable over SEFL) it is possible the ground will be already
saturated from the earlier week rainfall, so any additional heavy
rainfall could exacerbate hydro issues. Consequently, assuming the
Tues/Wed rainfall more or less pans out as expected, the flood watch
will likely need to be extended into the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

Assuming the aforementioned synoptic evolution occurs, Saturday will
hopefully mark the end of the heavy rainfall threat, as the
retrograding trough and building ridge combination should direct the
deep tropical moisture to our west. Although lingering low-lvl
moisture will support at least scattered showers and storms through
the period, the strengthening easterly flow and building heights
should limit the chances for widespread heavy rainfall beyond Friday
night/early Saturday (although exact forecast details remain
uncertain).

&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Poor flying conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period with
periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms expected. Prevailing
MVFR ceilings expected with times of IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities during heavy rain. Southerly winds around 10 kts
however winds will be erratic in and near stronger convection.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hazardous marine conditions at times through at least mid week as
enhanced tropical moisture results in periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds will be southerly around
15 kts with seas of 2-4 ft in the Gulf and 2-3 ft in the Atlantic,
however locally higher winds and seas are expected in areas of
stronger convection.
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&&

.BEACHES...
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Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for Collier county
beaches through Wednesday due to persistent onshore flow.

Minor coastal flooding is possible today along the Gulf coast
around the high tide cycle late this afternoon.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            77  85  77  85 /  80  90  90 100
West Kendall     75  87  75  87 /  80  90  90 100
Opa-Locka        76  86  77  88 /  90  90  90 100
Homestead        76  87  77  86 /  80  90  90 100
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  77  84 /  80  90  90 100
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  77  85 /  80  90  90 100
Pembroke Pines   77  85  77  89 /  90  90  90 100
West Palm Beach  75  86  75  86 /  80 100  90 100
Boca Raton       75  86  76  86 /  80 100  90 100
Naples           77  87  77  86 /  80 100 100 100
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...CMF