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406
FXUS62 KMHX 251007
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
607 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier high pressure will briefly build into eastern NC today. High
pressure then restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with another
weak cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High
pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late
week and into the weekend, with another frontal system moving
into the region late Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 605 AM Tue...Key message for todays forecast: Dry and a
little less humid but continued very warm.

High pressure will build into eastern NC from the west today.
The main effect will be to lower dewpoints to be mostly in the
60s which will make it feel a little less humid than yesterday.
It will continue very warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s inland and mid 80s beaches. Conditions will be much more
hostile for precipitation development today due to subsidence
with the building high. There will be a sea breeze later today
and we could see some buildups in vicinity of it (especially
over the southeast coast/southern coastal plain) but the
subsidence/depth of the mid level dry air should preclude
development into showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog and
areas of low stratus clouds early this morning will rapidly
dissipate after 12Z as mixing commences.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Tue...High pressure will extend into the region
from offshore keeping eastern NC dry. We could see some patchy
fog and areas of low stratus clouds develop again late as weak
return flow helps to moisten the low levels overnight. Lows will
be typical for summer in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and
low to mid 70s beaches.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Heat and humidity continue this week with
high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related impacts will
be a threat most afternoons through this weekend, with the most
oppressive heat potential Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry
conditions likely Wednesday, with precip likely Thursday and
Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. Then more
scattered diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday,
with better chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as
another front moves in.

Wednesday through Friday...The western Atlantic ridge returns in
full force Wednesday as warm moist southerly flow develops
across the Carolinas. Thicknesses build rather quickly, which
will allow for temperatures to soar into the upper 90s to near
100 inland, and low 90s along the coast. Though it will be
humid, some mixing of drier air above the surface during the
afternoon will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but
still expect values to range from 102 to 107 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and
with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will
see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (60-70% chance)
throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night
as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning.
Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass very briefly
builds in but it looks like heat and humidity will win out.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday
afternoon with the highest chances over the coastal plain.

It will be hot again and more humid Thursday ahead of the
front, and if sufficient sunshine is seen before convection
develops, highs will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices
climbing to 105 to 110 briefly. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected Friday behind the front, but we hold on to the humidity
and heat indices will again top 100 degrees and could be as high
as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Monday...Heat and humidity will build again
this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. With high
humidity in place already there will be the potential for
excessive heat as high temps soar into the mid to upper 90s,
which will lead to heat indices reaching 105 to 110 degrees both
Saturday and Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and
Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into
Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind
this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break
finally with near normal conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 605 AM Tue...With high pressure in control, we are
looking at mainly a VFR TAF with light winds with 2 exceptions,
early this morning and late tonight. In both cases moist low
levels/wet soils, and radiational cooling will lead to patchy
fog and areas of low stratus clouds which will result in IFR
conditions in the 8-12Z time frames. The fog and/or stratus will
rapidly dissipate after 12Z due to convective mixing.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week
with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead
to some periods of sub-VFR conditions.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 605 AM Tue...No changes to previous thinking. Improving
conditions expected for mariners through tonight with subsiding
seas and sustained winds 15 kt or less as high pressure builds
over the waters. Today winds will veer from NE early to SE late.
Tonight winds will continue to veer from SE to S late. Seas
will be a choppy 3-5 ft this morning subsiding to 2-4 ft by this
afternoon and 2-3 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Decent boating conditions expected this week
with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a
cold front moves through.

Winds will strengthen to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday through
Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the
waters during the day Thursday from north to south with winds
becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and remaining SW 5-15 kts to
its south. Veering NE to E flow is then expected Friday at 5-15
kts, with winds becoming SE at 10-15 kts Saturday. Seas will be
mostly 2-4 ft this week.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JME/SGK