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909
FXUS62 KMHX 131831
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
231 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an
area of low pressure moves northeast off the Southeast coast. The
high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A
cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure
building into the region in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Thu...Latest analysis shows weak low pressure off
the FL coast with high pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic
from the NE. High will continue to push offshore tonight as low
lifts northeastward. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance,
currently low probabilities of tropical development during the
next 48 hrs. Sct showers and iso tstms continue to blossom well
offshore this afternoon. As the low lifts NE tonight and
moisture spreads northward, expect iso to scattered showers to
spread towards the immediate coast, with highest chances for
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where will keep chance pops.
Instability will creep upwards through the overnight, and esp
towards daybreak, and will continue slight thunder mentions
along the immediate coast, with most of the thunder threat
remaining offshore. Warm tonight, with lows ranging from the mid
60s inland to low 70s for the beaches.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thu...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along
the Gulf Stream Friday. Still some uncertainty with exact track,
but still looks like the center of the low will remain 100-200
miles offshore as it passes to our east. This outcome would
result in minimal impacts for ENC. Scattered showers and iso
thunderstorm expected, with greatest coverage along the
immediate coast through mid day. Low level thickness values and
NE flow support highs in the 80s for the beaches and climbing
into the low 90s inland.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast through Saturday
  bringing chances (20-30%) of rain along the coast

- Likely dry cold front moves through Saturday

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Friday night through Sunday...Complicated setup in store, with
a weak low trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front
sweeping through the region. Trough and associated cold front
will be moving through overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
While likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low
along, making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts
from the low relatively short- lived. Friday now looks to be a
tad bit warmer than Saturday, with apparent temperatures in the
mid 90s. Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven,
and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze. Handled this with a
15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night
allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this
boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up,
but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm
formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm
weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct cu and broken high clouds continue across the area
this afternoon. Similar to this morning, signal for widespread
fog development is low given high cloudiness...however it is
possible for patchy fog, especially at EWN with light onshore
winds. Shower threat expected to remain mostly east of the
terminals tonight into Friday as low pressure moves offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well
offshore Friday night- Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain
chances and lower ceilings would become more favorable.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Latest obs show E winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-3
ft north of Hatteras and 10-20 kt south with 3-5 ft seas. Low
pressure off the FL coast will continue to grad strengthen,
lifting NE off the SE coast tonight. Sfc low will continue to
lift northeastward along the Gulf Stream Friday. Still some
uncertainty with exact track, but still looks like the center of
the low will remain 100-200 miles offshore as it passes to our
east. Main change was to increase winds slightly for Fri. Winds
will back, becoming E-NE 10-20 kt Friday with seas 3-5 ft
(highest south of Hatteras). At this time expect conditions to
remain sub SCA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected tonight through mid day Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Through the weekend we have a lot of
uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low
developing off the SE coast progresses. Potential for SCA gusts
and elevated seas exists through Sunday if the sfc low
approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence
remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of
the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to
the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving
through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of
events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of
gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week
pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE
winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ