Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
213 FXUS62 KMHX 210809 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 409 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal troughing develops today, then weakens as high pressure briefly noses in tonight. High pressure shifts offshore over the weekend, with inland troughing developing, and continuing into the upcoming week. A front, or two, may make a run at Eastern NC next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Coastal shower and thunderstorm risk today Early this morning, a tropical wave and an associated area of low pressure was located about 340 miles SSW of Cape Lookout. This wave is moving westward and is forecast to reach the FL/GA coast later today or tonight. The NHC continues to maintain modest probabilities of a brief tropical depression developing before landfall. North of that low, coastal troughing is forecast to sharpen through the day. Meanwhile, satellite imagery reveals a broad area of deeper moisture approaching the ENC coast from off the Atlantic. Guidance is in good agreement depicting this area of deeper moisture reaching the coast through the day, but struggling to penetrate much further inland of the coast. This will setup an area of modest moisture convergence that, in tandem with the coastal trough and daytime heating, should be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. I expect this coverage to be focused across coastal Onslow County, southern Craven County, Carteret County, and the southern OBX. By mid to late afternoon, the coastal trough is forecast to weaken as the above-mentioned low reaches the FL/GA coast, and this should lead to a decreasing coverage of showers. Inland away from the coast, highs should reach the 90s thanks to limited cloudcover and increasing low-level thicknesses within the developing southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Patchy fog possible tonight (20-40% chance) As the seabreeze works inland this evening, boundary layer dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 70s across most, if not all, of ENC. Meanwhile, a transient area of surface ridging nosing in should support light winds. At face value, this suggests at least some potential for patchy fog development (mostly likely of the shallow variety). However, short-term ensemble guidance gives a 20-40% chance of more impactful fog developing, and this will be something we`ll continue to monitor in later forecasts. An alternative scenario, as seen in most forecast soundings, is a low stratus deck of clouds developing, which would tend to limit the fog potential. Regardless, the combination of increasing dewpoints and rising thicknesses will lead to a noticeably more mild night, with lows in the 70s for most. There`s a loose signal in the guidance for some lingering coastal showers, but forcing doesn`t look as notable as during the day today, so we`ll keep the chance of precip lower along the coast for now. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 4 AM Friday... Saturday-Sunday...Surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to travel east, which will put ENC under southwesterly flow and start a warming and moistening trend. Along the east coast, coastal troughing will develop and last through the weekend. The main lacking ingredient for a much needed widespread rainfall event is instability, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend will likely develop along the seabreeze. Of more concern is the oppressive heat, especially on Sunday, when "feels like" temperatures are expected to reach 100-105F. Monday-Friday...We`ll remain mostly under southerly flow, which will pump in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and increase humidity to uncomfortable levels. Diurnal PoPs are in the forecast each day but better chances will be on Monday and Thursday due to a series of frontal passages. The main points of focus for the coming week will be triple digit "feels like" temperatures and the potential for strong to marginally severe storms on Monday. - Dangerous Heat: With increasing heat and humidity, heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each day this week. This raises concern for heat related illnesses for those spending time outdoors. No heat headlines are in place as of now, but trends will be monitored. - Monday Storms: Instability and deep layer shear look to be plentiful across the area. If this holds, some strong to severe storms are possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 115 AM Friday... - Periods of MVFR conditions possible through Friday night (50-70% chance) - TSRA possible along the immediate coastline Friday (20-30% chance) An area of low pressure will track westward across the SW Atlantic, reaching the FL/GA coastline later Friday or Friday evening. North of the low, a zone of deeper low-mid level moisture will attempt to work north and west towards the coast of the Carolinas with an increased risk of sub-VFR CIGS. At this time, it appears the greatest risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas, and I`ve opted to keep CIGs out of the TAFs for now. Later Friday evening into Friday night, guidance is showing a stronger signal for sub-VFR CIGs as moisture continues to get pulled into the area. There`s still some uncertainty regarding how quickly this moisture return will occur, and I kept the TAFs VFR for now. Of note, as moisture increases, there appears to be a decent opportunity for SHRA and TSRA activity offshore and along the immediate coastal areas. Like with the CIGs, it appears the greatest chance will be south and east of our TAF sites, so no mention of SHRA or TSRA for now. Lastly, both tonight and Friday night, there will be a chance of sub-VFR VIS due to shallow fog. I stuck close to the previous TAFs and kept a 5SM BR mention in to account for the potential overnight. For Friday night, it`s less certain whether it will be low stratus or FG, but either way there is a sub-VFR risk worth monitoring. LONG TERM /Tonight through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...SHRA and TSRA development are possible each day along the seabreeze. Monday will present the best opportunity for sub-VFR conditions given an environment that could support strong to marginally severe storms. Winds will generally be SW with 20-25 kt gusts possible late Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Elevated seas continue south of Cape Hatteras this morning - Increased shower and thunderstorm risk today south of Cape Hatteras A tropical wave, and an associated area of low pressure, were located about 340 miles SSW of Cape Lookout early this morning. It`s unclear how much swell is actually emanating from this low, but persistent easterly flow is certainly contributing to continued elevated seas of 4-6 ft early this morning. Given a slower trend in waves laying down, I opted to extend the ongoing SCA out several more hours. Additional extensions may be needed. Eventually, the low moving ashore near the GA/FL coast, and decreased winds should lead to sub 6 ft seas. For the most part, winds will be easterly at 5- 15kt this morning, then shifting to a southerly direction by tonight. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will persist until Sunday when SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas will be 2-3 ft on Saturday and build to 3-5 by later Sunday. The new week will continue similar conditions with gusts possibly dipping just below SCA criteria. Conditions improve Tuesday after a cold front passes through, which will generate variable winds at 10 kt or less and 3-4 ft seas diminishing to 2-3 ft. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day but Monday presents the best chance for some to be stronger to marginally severe.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thur...Minimum RHs will reach 35-40% this afternoon (primarily away from the coast). Given the continued dry airmass, dry fuels, and E`rly breezes, these conditions remain noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156- 158.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM/MS LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...RM/OJC MARINE...RM/OJC FIRE WEATHER...MHX