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424
FXUS62 KMHX 241353
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
953 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area later today, with
drier high pressure briefly building in behind it for Tuesday.
High pressure then restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with
another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High
pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late
week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 955 AM Mon...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for morning update.

Main concerns today: 1) The combination of hot temperatures
(highs in the low to mid 90s) and high humidity (dewpoints in
the 70s) will produce Heat Index values of 100-105 degrees
briefly this afternoon.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon into early evening with the potential for
damaging wind gusts, large hail and minor flooding.

The base of the mid level trough will move across eastern NC
during max heating today with the associated weakening cold
front moving into the area. This will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing, especially during
the afternoon into early evening. MLCAPE values reach 2500-3000
J/kg provided there is sufficient heating and there will be
around 30 kt of shear. PW values are forecast to exceed 2" as
low level lapse rates steepen with heating. This will favor
multi- cell cluster development with damaging wind gusts and
hail around 1" possible. A supercell or two could develop with
the potential for a very strong wind gust and hail to 1.5". The
area most favorable for this would be north of Highway 70 in the
region of strongest shear.

In addition to the severe threat, the potential for locally
heavy rains will exist as PW values exceed 2" favoring
torrential downpours. Since we have been abnormally dry for an
extended period of time, will not issue any Flood Watches, but
some minor poor drainage flooding will be possible as the CAM`s
indicate the potential for local rainfall of 2-3" in regions
that receive frequent downpours.

Heat Risk will also be a concern today as highs will likely
reach the low to mid 90s before the precipitation occurs and
cools things down. With dewpoints well into the 70s expect
Heat Index values 100-104 degrees with a few spots reaching 105
degrees for an hour or two. With widespread precipitation
expected during peak heating, think there will only be a brief
window for Heat Index values to reach Heat Advisory criteria,
thus will hold off on issuing Advisories but continue to mention
in the HWO and social media.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Mon...Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread
east of Highway 17 very early in the evening and should be
mostly offshore by 4Z as a weak cold front crosses the area this
evening. Severe threat should wind down around 00Z as loss of
heating occurs. Some brief relief from the heat is expected as
lows inland cool into the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Heat and humidity continue this week with
high pressure ridging into the area. Near normal precip chances
(scattered afternoon thunderstorms) are expected with rain
likely Thursday as a cold front moves into the area.

Tuesday...Behind a cold front seasonably cooler and drier high
pressure will temporarily build in from the northeast Tuesday.
Veering onshore flow will keep the coast in the mid to upper 80s
for afternoon highs, while further inland highs reach the upper
80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday through Friday...Local area of high pressure will
become absorbed into the massive western Atlantic ridge on
Wednesday with warm moist southerly flow returning to the
Carolinas. Thicknesses build rather quickly Wednesday, which
will allow for temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s
inland, and low 90s along the coast. Though it will be humid,
some mixing of drier air above the surface during the afternoon
will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect
values to range from 100 to 105 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and
with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will
see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (50-60% chance)
throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night
as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning.
Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass will build in with
high pressure to the north.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday ahead of the
front, but developing convection should limit highs to only the
upper 80s to low 90s. Even still heat indices will again top 100
degrees as dewpoints remain very high through the day. Slightly
cooler conditions expected Friday with onshore flow, and we will
see highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s
inland.

Saturday and Sunday...Heat and humidity look to build again this
weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. We`ll have highs
reaching the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s along
the coast. Dewpoints in the 70s both days will lead to heat
indices reaching at least 100 to 105. In this moist and unstable
airmass at least scattered chances for thunderstorms will be
possible, but greater chances may arrive late Sunday as yet
another front moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 650 AM Mon...Guidance continues to indicate a window for
occasional MVFR ceilings early this morning which should end by
13Z. Then mostly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder
of the TAF period with the exception of 18Z-00Z today when
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce occasional sub VFR conditions with strong
wind gusts 40+ kt and hail. Drier air is forecast to move into
eastern NC following the passage of a weak cold front this
evening. Could be patches of shallow fog late as winds diminish
and skies clear.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week
with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to
some periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Mon...SCA`s continue for all waters today but
winds outside of thunderstorms will be diminishing below
advisory levels this afternoon.

Moderate to strong southerly flow continues ahead of a weak cold
front early today. Current observations indicate SW flow 15-25
kt with gusts to 30 kt and 4-7 ft seas. The gradient will be
lessening later today as the front moves into eastern NC and
this will allow the flow to diminish to 10-20 kt. However,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 50 kt especially
late this afternoon into early this evening. Elevated seas AOA 6
ft should subside during this evening over the southern and
central waters where the flow will be strongest. As the front
cross the area this evening, there will be the potential for a
brief period of northerly winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
immediately behind the front, then winds will diminish to NE
10-15 kt late with seas diminishing to 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Decent boating conditions expected this week
with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a cold
front moves through.

Winds Tuesday will be mostly easterly at 10-20 kts. Winds then
veer to the south Wednesday at 5-15 kts, and then increase to
SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. The front
will cross the waters during the day Thursday from north to
south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and remaining
SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to E flow is then expected
Friday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK