-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
317
FXUS64 KOHX 020639
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
139 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The low pressure system that produced showery and cloudy conditions
yesterday will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps
a rumble of thunder through this morning, mainly for areas east
of I-65. By afternoon, high pressure will begin to move in from
the west and we see more sunshine than yesterday with much warmer
temperatures. Even though the bulk of the showers will move east
of our area, a few showers or storms could still bubble up in the
warm and humid air mass that will be in place this afternoon.

Generally quiet wx is expected tonight through Monday as a mid
level ridge builds up over the area. A stray shower or
thunderstorm could occur this evening and again Monday, but most
areas will be rain-free. Monday will be a very warm day with the
ridge overhead and southerly low level winds. Temperatures will
reach the 80s area-wide with some spots possibly topping 90.

Good news is any thunderstorms through the next couple of days
will pose little risk for severe wx. Brief downpours and lightning
will be the main concerns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue Monday night
and Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
as another disturbances drifts across the area. A strong storm or
2 with downpours and gusty winds cannot be ruled out in the heat
of the day Tuesday, but there is still no support for widespread
or organized severe wx.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase further
Wednesday into Thursday as a more significant shortwave trough
brings a cold front toward the area. Wednesday afternoon and
evening will bring the greatest potential for some strong storms
with gusty winds and heavy rain, but not seeing indications of a
big severe event at this time.

Passage of the cold front Thursday will be followed by a shot of
cooler and drier air for the weekend. Some models show a
completely rain-free weekend while some models indicate some
shower and thunderstorm chances as disturbances come our way in
northwest flow aloft. It will be a big weekend for outdoor events,
so hopefully models will come into better focus as we go through
the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Addressed best two hour time interval for tstms impacting SRB/CSV
02/10Z-02/13Z. A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings, with ceiling
erosion CKV/BNA/MQY by 02/16Z and SRB/CSV by 03/00Z. Slow veering
of southerly sustained sfc winds 5-10 kts to northwest thru
03/00Z, with backing back to light south by 03/06Z. With overall
expected scattered nature of shwrs, went with VCSH remarks except
periodic prevailing shwrs with IFR/MVFR vsbys with ceilings
varying between MVFR to IFR ceilings 02/06Z-02/08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  66  89  68 /  30  10  20  20
Clarksville    83  64  87  67 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     75  60  81  63 /  70  20  20  10
Columbia       84  64  87  68 /  30  10  20  20
Cookeville     77  62  83  65 /  60  20  20  10
Jamestown      76  61  82  63 /  70  30  20  10
Lawrenceburg   82  64  86  68 /  30  10  20  20
Murfreesboro   84  64  87  68 /  40  10  20  10
Waverly        84  64  87  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright