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614
FXUS64 KOHX 010641
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
141 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As of 1 AM CDT this Saturday morning, most of Middle Tennessee
remained dry with mild temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Light
showers were developing over our far western counties. By
daybreak, showers will be covering most areas west of I-65.

Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue to
gradually spread across the Mid State through the day as a large
low pressure trough moves east from the Ms Valley Valley. Most of
the rain with this system will occur today through early Sunday
morning. The greatest coverage and amounts will be found over the
west half of our area with some spots receiving downpours
producing more than 1 inch of rainfall. Generally lower coverage
of showers and lower rainfall amounts will be observed toward the
Plateau where totals around one quarter to one half inch will be
common.

The main surface low pressure center with this system will
strengthen as it passes to our northwest today, resulting in
breezy winds today with increased deep layer wind shear of 25 to
35 KT. These values are adequate for the potential of strong
thunderstorms. However, widespread clouds and showers will hold
temperatures down today limiting the available instability. If
there are some pockets of partial clearing and greater
instability, a strong storm or 2 could form this afternoon. This
conditional and marginal risk is in place for the west half of our
area this afternoon and early evening. Local damaging wind gusts
would be the main feature if nay strong storms can form. The
tornado threat is not zero during the time of enhanced wind shear
this afternoon, but it is extremely low.

The coverage of showers will be generally scattered tonight into
Sunday, and most areas will dry out by Sunday afternoon as the
upper level trough moves east of our area. As showers taper off
and clouds break, temperatures will warm up much more for Sunday
and the air will be much more humid than we have experienced the
past few days.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Despite the advertised transition to a wetter unsettled pattern,
we will actually have a good deal of rain-free time from Sunday
night through Tuesday. There will be scattered showers or
thunderstorms at times as some weak shortwaves drift across the
region in weak zonal flow. The air will be warm and humid, so when
thunderstorms do form they could contain some locally heavy
downpours. But, we do not see any widespread severe storm or
flooding risk at this time.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday
into Thursday as a couple of stronger system impact the region
ahead of a cold front. Details are unknown at this time, but the pattern
suggests some severe storm and flood potential Wednesday into
Thursday. After the front passes on Thursday, cooler and drier
conditions are expected for next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Several admendments probable due to fluctuations in specific
weather elements time evolution not be adequately addresses in
a concise TAF format. Mentioned best 2-3 hr window for tstm
terminal formation 01/21Z-01/24Z. Surface pressure gradient
influences will support gusts up to 25kts thru 02/06Z. Light
showers should become prevalent at all mid state terminals by
01/15Z as showers continue spreading E to W across area. Surface
winds will generally range 8-15kts prevailing mainly from SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  66  84  66 /  90  60  40  10
Clarksville    73  65  82  64 / 100  50  20   0
Crossville     70  58  76  60 /  70  70  80  10
Columbia       74  65  84  65 / 100  60  30   0
Cookeville     71  61  78  62 /  80  70  70  10
Jamestown      72  59  77  60 /  70  70  60  10
Lawrenceburg   73  65  82  65 /  80  60  30  10
Murfreesboro   74  64  84  64 /  80  60  50  10
Waverly        74  65  84  65 / 100  50  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright