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493
FXUS64 KOHX 251717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Rest of today through Memorial Day)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms experienced during the early morning
hours are now long gone. Some light radar returns noted across
Cumberland Plateau Region as noontime hour approaches. Can not
totally rule out the possibility of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon, especially if a weak embedded
shortwave moves across our area, becomes a little more enhanced
as it pushes into eastern portions of our area late this
afternoon as some of the latest CAMs suggest, but overall,
generally dry conditions should prevail through afternoon hours
today with highs a few degrees above seasonal normal values. Look
for any shower or thunderstorm chances to mainly be confined to
Cumberland Plateau Region tonight as a shortwave approaches. Lows
tonight will be quite seasonably mild spanning the 60s.

Quandaries abound when it comes to shower and thunderstorm
chances late tonight through the day on Sunday. How convection
develops to our west today and possibly pushes eastward tonight
will be one factor to consider. Some CAMs and some of the more
traditional models have showers and thunderstorms moving west to
east across our area late tonight through at least the morning
hours on Sunday. Some models keep the brunt of convection to our
north. What ever turns out to be, there is certainly potential for
some of that convection to be strong to severe, with strong to
damaging winds main concern, but all hazardous modes will be
possible, including brief heavy rainfall. But again, there is
a chance mid state will not see much if any showers or
thunderstorms as day on Sunday progresses. Temperatures will
be quite seasonably warm with highs as warm as upper 80s to lower
90s, low to mid 80s for locations just west of and across
Cumberland Plateau Region.

While quandaries abound as day on Sunday progresses, little
disagreement with models on how Sunday night progresses, with
the best potential of strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging
winds continuing to be main concern, but certainly can not rule
out all hazard modes,as a potential southeastward propagating
convective system moves out of the central MS, western Ohio River
Valley Region into our area as the evening through at least the
early overnight hours progress. MUCAPE values could approach 3,000
J/KG, mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km , effective bulk shear
values approaching 50kt, SRH sfc to 3 km values as high as
approaching 450 m2/s2, PW approaching 1.8 inches, along with
potentially significant right turning hodographs. Certainly
looks like some heavy rainfall could occur at times too,
especially during the overnight hours across locations east of
I-65 Corridor, especially Upper Cumberland Region. Lows Sunday
night will mainly range mid to upper 60s.

A surface front will eventually push through our area as Memorial
Day progresses, with potential of at least some strong convection
across eastern portions of our area through remainder of morning
hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease from the west
as the day progresses. Highs on Memorial Day will cool down
somewhat, but still be seasonably warm in low to mid 80s, upper
70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Dry conditions will finally prevail by Monday night with a dry
surface cold front dropping from the north as Tuesday progresses
with broad surface high pressure influences prevailing. Along
with broad upper level troughing across most of eastern CONUS
providing northwesterly flow across our neck of the woods through
at least Thursday, a progression to cooler temperatures will
commence beginning on Monday night with lows by Wednesday and
Thursday Nights spanning the 50s with highs on Thursday only in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. A
warmup will begin on Friday into first part of next weekend with
temperatures once again several degrees above seasonal normal
values as upper level ridging influences move across our area.
As surface and upper level ridging influences begin to shift
eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern
will develop supporting increased moisture advection across our
area that could result in shower and thunderstorm chances
returning to mid state region as Friday night into Saturday
progresses.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Ongoing storms will continue to bring lower cigs and vis to
MVFR/IFR levels during impact. The current line of storms will
continue slowly moving east-southeast through the morning. For the
afternoon, VFR conditions should return, but widely scattered
pop-up thunderstorms are possible. Went ahead and included VCTS
at all sites through the afternoon to account for this. Behind the
line of storms, winds will generally be out of the west around
5kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      86  69  90  71 /  70  30  40  80
Clarksville    83  68  89  70 /  50  20  50  90
Crossville     80  62  81  64 /  80  30  50  90
Columbia       85  67  89  69 /  70  30  30  80
Cookeville     81  65  84  66 /  80  30  50  90
Jamestown      81  62  83  64 /  70  30  50  90
Lawrenceburg   85  67  88  69 /  80  30  30  80
Murfreesboro   85  67  89  69 /  80  30  40  80
Waverly        85  68  89  69 /  50  30  50  90
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Baggett