-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
826
FXUS64 KOHX 231914
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

We are catching a break from the convection at this time. The first
round of showers and tstms just moved off of our northern Plateau.
Mow we are awaiting some development upstream. Also, we are warming
into the lower 80s now and our convective temperatures will be on
approach. Still expecting shower and thunderstorm development a
little later. Capes are quite impressive again today with models
showing up to 3000 j/kg. Thus, strong to severe tstms will again be
possible this afternoon. 850 mb speeds are rather low at 20 kts so
storm structure will need to be sufficient. Otherwise, isolated 2
inch rainfall amounts could pose some flood problems depending on
whether or not previously soaked areas are impacted. Those areas
appear to be our northwest and also areas just west of the northern
Plateau.

Moving on, tonight, a shortwave will arrive late and allow some
convection to redevelop, especially across our south. Following this,
Friday looks somewhat similar to today. A weakening boundary will be
located just to our west by afternoon. But the models are picking up
on some mid and upper level late day ridging. This also transcends to
larger subsidence by late in the day. So, it looks as though we will
see morning convection on into the early to mid afternoon, before
tapering off. Severity of storms will be primarily cape dependent.
So the marginal risk looks reasonable for hail and high winds.

Saturday looks as though we will catch a bit of a break. There will
still be isolated to scattered activity around. The marginal risk
will remain as higher capes are expected in the afternoon.

For the near term temps, warm and muggy. Highs 80s, lows 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

In the extended forecast, a fairly strong frontal boundary with
upper support will move through late Sunday night. With the more
than sufficient instability during the day on Sunday, severe weather
becomes more likely. Furthermore, organization looks likely and
speeds at 850 mb will be in excess of 40 kts. I will say that the
better chance of severe may hold off until evening though when the
pre frontal organization picks up. Damaging winds, large hail and a
few tornados will all be possible. Average qpf amounts are just over
a half inch but of course, isolated totals could be in that 1-2 inch
range.

Showers and thunderstorms will finally move out of the picture by
late Monday. The following weather pattern looks nicer with a cooler
surface high building southward through the week. The upper levels
keep the deeper troughing to our northeast but the shallow push of
cooler air will still cool our temps down to seasonal levels through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms roaming around Middle TN this afternoon.
If one directly affects a mid-state terminal, brief IFR conditions
are possible, along with gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR with light
southwest winds are expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  82  67  87 /  40  70  50  50
Clarksville    65  81  67  85 /  30  60  60  40
Crossville     61  75  61  81 /  70  70  50  60
Columbia       64  80  65  86 /  50  80  70  50
Cookeville     63  77  63  82 /  70  70  50  60
Jamestown      61  76  61  81 /  80  70  50  60
Lawrenceburg   65  79  65  85 /  50  80  70  50
Murfreesboro   64  81  64  86 /  50  70  60  50
Waverly        65  81  66  85 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger