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218
FXUS64 KOHX 281709
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Surface
high pressure influences will prevail, with a weak cold frontal
passage north to south across mid state region on Wednesday
starting process of ushering in a colder airmass to our area in
association with strong surface high pressure influences building
out of southern Canada. Aloft, northwesterly flow will become
more pronounced through Wednesday afternoon also. Looks like some
moisture will try to work around western and southern portions of
our area as Wednesday progresses but not expecting any
precipitation in our neck of the woods associated with this
anticipated moisture advection pattern as of this time.
Highs this afternoon still look to top out in low to mid 80s,
upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight
will be on seasonably cool side mainly mid to upper 50s. Highs
on Wednesday will start to reflect cold air advection pattern
establishment with highs only ranging upper 70s north to lower
80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Deepest moisture should remain south of mid state region as
Wednesday night into Thursday progresses so not adding any
chances of precipitation across our area as of this time.
Coolest high temperatures of forecast period will be on Thursday
with highs only ranging mid to upper 70s. All in all, coldest
night of forecast period will be Thursday Night with lows
generally in mid to upper 50s, upper 40s to lower 50s higher
elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. Looks like one more dry day
will be in store for our area on Friday per upper level ridging
influences building across much of eastern CONUS with highs
returning back to seasonal normal values.

Dry conditions will hang on through Friday evening as upper level
ridging influences slowly shift eastward, but as overnight hours
progress on Friday Night, shower and thunderstorm chances will
once again return to our area with these chances continuing
through first part of next week. An initially negatively tilted
upper level trough will move across our area as Saturday
progresses. Surface high pressure influences will shift to
off central Atlantic coastline as first part of next work week
progresses, establishing a southerly low level atmospheric flow
pattern across our area though first part of next work week.
Yet another upper level trough passage is expected Sunday night
into Monday. With potentially an upper level low developing in
base of upper level troughing influences centered across central
MS River Valley as Monday night progresses, and this feature
pushing eastward as Tuesday progresses,those showers and
thunderstorm chances will continue. Total rainfall amounts
Friday Night through Tuesday Afternoon will range from around
0.75" eastern portions to approaching 2.0" southern TN River
Valley Region of mid state area. Temperatures will hover around
seasonal normal values through weekend. A warm air advection
pattern will become increasingly established as first part of
next work week progresses with highs mainly in mid 80s, around 80
to lower 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland
Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions expected. SCT mid to high clouds with NW winds 10
kts and gusts to 20 kt will subside after sunset. Light and
variable but mainly westerly winds overnight. There could be some
light river fog in the early morning hours. NW winds 10 kts or
less tomorrow with return of some high clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Nashville      60  81  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    57  78  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     52  74  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       58  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
Cookeville     54  75  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      53  74  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   58  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   56  81  55  79 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        58  79  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....12