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001
FXUS62 KTAE 210120
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

No major changes to tonight`s forecast were required. Hourly cloud
cover was adjusted to accounted for evening trends of a
diminishing cumulus field via the latest NBM/HRRR blends. Mostly
clear skies and light/calm winds pave the way for relatively
decent radiational cooling. As such minT`s are on the cool side of
the model guidance envelope and in line with MOS readings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Clouds have hung in longer than expected with plentiful moisture
moving on northeast low level flow underneath the subsidence
inversion. Adjusted hourly and max highs today to lower just a
skoosh in a few places. If we can get a few more breaks, highs today
should reach the mid/upper 80s. A few showers may occur along the
seabreeze which should be short lived. Clouds should erode later
today into this evening.

High pressure will be anchored from the northern Gulf to offshore
the eastern seaboard. Other than perhaps a shower or two in the
southeast Big Bend Tuesday afternoon, the region will remain dry
with upper ridging building overhead. Northeast winds will continue
overnight into tomorrow with lows falling into the 60s and highs
Tuesday reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level riding continues to build over the area
with northerly flow prevailing before sliding southeast resulting in
easterly flow overhead late Wednesday evening. Drier air coupled
with large scale subsidence should result in clear skies and will
kick off a warming trend lasting through the long term. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s with some mid 90s across our FL counties possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging continues with easterly flow
aloft. A series of weak disturbances will ride east along the ridge
axis over our area beginning Friday which will serve to bring us
back to some low end rain and thunderstorm chances amidst the dry
pattern. Chances have also increased due to southerly flow
transporting more abundant low-level moisture across the forecast
area.

With predominately sunny conditions continuing through the long
term, the warming trend will also continue. Daytime highs will
remain in the low to mid 90s areawide with little relief overnight
as overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. With
increasing temperatures and dewpoints, heat indices are expected to
see an increase as well. Later in the period, apparent temperatures
will reach the upper 90s across our FL counties, perhaps reaching
the low 100s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VRB winds and VFR conditions persist throughout the night. Winds
pick up mid-morning at around 5-7 knots from the ENE. Fair-
weather, scattered CU will develop in the afternoon with bases
around 3500-4500ft, and a seabreeze will develop localized SW flow
at ECP starting ~21Z. VFR is expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a NNE wind at 6 kts with
2-ft seas and dominant period of 6 to 7 seconds this evening.

From CWF Synopsis...Winds are expected to clock to easterly this
evening, gradually clocking to south-southeasterly throughout the
week around 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will remain around 1 to 2
feet through Wednesday before becoming 1 foot across the board.
Each day, slight wind surges over our nearshore waters may occur
as the afternoon seabreeze kicks in. Rain and thunderstorms are
not expected throughout the workweek.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally northeasterly transport winds around 10-15 mph with high
mixing heights are expected tomorrow with good to excellent
dispersions area wide. The highest dispersions will be over the
Suwannee Valley Tuesday afternoon. The afternoon sea breeze may
cause winds to become more southerly near the coast during the
afternoon and evening hours. Transport winds become more
southeasterly to southerly Wednesday and Thursday with good
dispersions each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to
ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next
few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee
River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will
likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee
will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers
are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally
hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at
Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today.
Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to
near flood are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new
hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area
likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  88  67  91 /   0  10   0   0
Panama City   68  86  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        63  85  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        62  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  87  64  90 /   0  10   0   0
Cross City    62  88  65  91 /  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  71  82  71  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3/AW
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...IG3/AW
MARINE...Worster/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Worster