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434
FXUS61 KALY 150720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
320 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the region for the weekend. Expect
plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures before a prolonged
period of hot and humid weather arrives for next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clouds are gradually exiting east and south. The wind shift
boundary is slowly dropping south, with the shift from west to
north. The clearing through daybreak and light winds could
result in some patchy fog in areas where rainfall occurred
earlier. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or
below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the
40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly
likely for much of next week...

Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next
week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM
mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s
Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper
80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat
indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas
during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the
Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may
develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak
front possibly approaches from the north.

Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max
temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper
70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be
some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern
Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Largely VFR conditions expected through the
period. A wind shift boundary continuing to slowly sag southward
across the region will see clearing skies in its wake. At POU, which
will remain south of the boundary through 09-10Z Sat, elevated low-
level moisture beneath clearing skies may result in patchy fog/mist,
resulting in periods of MVFR vsbys. As the low levels dry out closer
to sunrise, conditions will return to VFR. Elsewhere north of the
boundary, VFR conditions will persist as skies clear by 12Z Sat.
Diurnal fair wx cu at 4-6 kft will develop after 16-18Z Sat, before
again clearing by the evening after 00Z Sun.

Light north to northwest winds at 3-6 kt north of the wind shift
boundary at ALB/GFL/PSF will continue through the overnight period,
increasing to 5-10 kt after 09-10Z Sat. To the south at POU, calm to
light and variable winds will continue until the boundary passes by
09-10Z Sat, when light northerly winds will develop. All terminals
will see north to northwest winds of 8-12 kt potentially gusting
around 20 kt through the morning, from 12-18Z Sat, before gusts
begin to subside with sustained winds of 6-10 kt. Speeds continue to
diminish to 5 kt or less through the evening after 00Z Sun.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Picard