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026
FXUS61 KALY 160221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in over New York tonight with
clear and cool conditions.  Fathers Day will feature partly to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant weather with the the surface high in
control.  Hot and humid weather arrives Monday and continues through
most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Update...As of 10:20 PM EDT...Overall just minor adjustments
with this forecast update. Combination of clear skies and high
pressure building in has allowed temperatures to tank with the
loss of daytime heating where the winds have gone calm. Coldest
locations at this time are across the ADKs where temperatures
are already in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures should
continue to drop several more degrees over the next few hours,
but the rate of cooling will level off as temperatures approach
their respective dew points and high clouds stream in later
tonight. Will also continue to mention a few patches of
radiation fog in the ADKs or upper Hudson Valley late tonight,
but otherwise it should be clear and cool. Previous forecast
remains in good shape with more details below...

.Previous...A 1025 hPa sfc anticyclone will move from southeast
Ontario over upstate NY tonight with clear skies and light to
calm winds. Dewpoints will be in the 30s and 40s.

Ideal radiational cooling conditions will occur. Lows will run
close to 10 degrees below normal. We favored the cooler MAV MOS
guidance with lows in the mid 40s to around 50F in the valley
areas and upper 30s to mid 40s over the higher terrain. Portions
of the southern Dacks and southern Greens may have the most
widespread 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...the sfc anticyclone will slowly shift south and east
of New England. Low and mid level heights will rise aloft. Some
cirrus may increase from the south and west late in the
afternoon. The subsidence from the ridge will bring partly to
mostly skies with seasonable temps for Fathers Day. Max temps
will be in the mid to upper 70s in the valleys and mid 60s to
lower 70s over the higher terrain.

A warm front will move through parts of the region Sunday night
with increasing mid and high clouds. A weak short-wave will move
across the top of the mid level ridge. A few light showers or
sprinkles may move across the southern Dacks overnight. Temps
will be milder than the previous night, but still comfortably
cool with 50s to around 60F.

The week will open with sunshine mixed with clouds, as the warm
front move through during the late morning and early pm. The
low-level moisture is limited, as we kept some isolated showers
over the southern Dacks. A few sprinkles can not be ruled out
north and west of the Capital Region. Humidity levels will start
to creep up. We went close to the ECM MOS max temp values with
the low and mid level warm advection coupled with the southerly
flow. Max temps will be in the mid and upper 80s below 1000 ft
in elevation with mid 70s to lower 80s above that height.

Low and mid level heights continue to increase across the
Northeast into southeast Canada setting the stage for a hot
week. The heat will be building in from the south and west. Lows
Mon night will be in the 60s with upper 60s in the Hudson and
Mohawk Valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The first heat wave of 2024 for eastern NY and western New England
continues to show high probabilities of beginning on Tuesday and
continuing through much of the week with perhaps some relief by next
weekend. Anomalous ridging will build in over the East Coast by
Tuesday with H500 heights +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the
NAEFS.  H850 temps rise to +18C to +20C based on the GFS/ECMWF.  Max
temps were accepted close to the NBM but slightly closer to the ECM
mean/op run with max temps in the mid and spotty upper 90s in the
valleys and mid 80s to lower 90s over the higher terrain. Heat
headlines will likely be needed with dewpoint temps in the 60s to
lower 70s. Apparent temps in the 90s to lower 100s will be possible.
Most of the coverage below 1000 ft will be in the mid 90s to lower
100s. Not much relief is expected Tue night with lows in the 60s to
around 70F with mainly clear skies and light to calm winds.

Wednesday-Thursday...the sensible weather pattern does not change
much with anomalous heights aloft combined with H850 temps around
20C. West winds may increase slightly adding some slightly higher
temps in the valley areas due to downsloping.  The combination of
the heat and humidity will likely yield heat advisories for the much
of the area with potentially spotty Excessive Heat Warnings.  Max
temps in the mid and upper 90s (near record values) will be possible
below 1000 ft in elevation with upper 80s to lower 90s over the
higher terrain. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
pop-up if we can break any capping due to terrain differential
heating. Lows will be balmy in mid 60s to lower 70s.

Friday into the weekend...Dangerous heat and humidity likely
continues on Friday with additional heat headlines possible.  A
short-wave and a cold front may produce more scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Fri into Friday night.  The mid level flow
becomes zonal aloft over southeast Canada and the Northeast.  The
boundary will be near the region to open the weekend with some
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms possible. Temps will
continue to run above normal with 90s possible in the Hudson River
Valley into the weekend.

The heat and humidity next week will continue to be highlighted in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook text and graphical products.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions should prevail through at
least the end of the TAF period. Skies should be mainly clear
this evening with just a few passing high clouds tonight. Can`t
totally rule out some patchy fog at GFL for an hour or two
around sunrise, but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs. A few more high clouds are expected tomorrow, especially
late in the day.

Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 kt through the
next few hours, becoming light and variable by midnight lasting
through tomorrow morning. Winds increase to around 5 kt from the
south tomorrow by mid-afternoon through 00z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Wed night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Main/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Main