-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
401
FXUS61 KILN 241051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Ohio Valley today. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday
through Thursday before a tropical system provides a chance of
precipitation late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A swath of showers will decrease later this morning as a mid-
level impulse continues off to the east. Behind this energy, a
lull in the precipitation and perhaps thinning of the clouds
will likely allow for some destabilization to occur. The degree
of instability we achieve brings some uncertainty to the
forecast for this afternoon, with models ranging from 1000J/kg
to nearly 2500J/kg.

A wave of surface low pressure accompanying the parent mid-level
shortwave will offer an increased vertical shear profile. The
00Z HRRR has 40-50 knots of effective shear this afternoon
during our peak in diurnal instability.

Bottom line for this afternoon will be the threat for a few
storms containing damaging winds. Also can`t rule out a tornado
or two if storm-scale backing of the surface winds occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The surface low will move away to the north this evening leaving
a trailing surface boundary laid out in the vicinity of our
northeast Kentucky counties. Have held onto PoPs in this area
closest to the boundary. Otherwise, tonight and Wednesday will
generally be drier than today with the lack of a stronger
forcing mechanism. Temperatures will range from near 80 along
and southeast of Interstate 71 with cooler highs in the 70s
to the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models continue to show tropical moisture lifting northward toward
our area Thursday into Friday. There remains some uncertainty
as to how far north it will actually make it before it begins to
get wrapped into the deeper upper level low situated over the mid
to lower Mississippi Valley. Nonetheless, it does look like a
decent chance for showers to make it at least up into our southern
forecast area per the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. Will therefore
go with likely pops across the south, trimming back to chance in our
north, with the highest QPF expected along and south of the Ohio
River.

The upper level low will slowly weaken and open up into a trough as
it lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes through the weekend and
into early next week. With moisture continuing to rotate around the
low, will hang to occasional chances for showers through the
remainder of the long term period.

Temperatures will be fairly seasonable with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s through the weekend. Somewhat cooler temperatures
are expected on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid-level shortwave will continue to shift to the northeast
early in the TAF period with rain showers decreasing. Guidance
has come in with less low clouds behind the rain. Since this
matches the latest observational trends, have opted for a more
optimistic cloud forecast.

Heading into the afternoon, a surface wave of low pressure will
cause an additional wave of showers and storms to develop, with
peak impacts to the terminals from 18-22Z. Winds ahead of the
system will generally be out of the south in the 10-15 knot
range... but gustier winds are likely to occur within stronger
storms.

Guidance is consistent with the development of low clouds again
early tomorrow morning, so decided to add this after 06Z
tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...