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627
FXUS61 KILN 151851
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
251 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.S.
for the beginning of the week. Some weak disturbances rotating
around the western periphery of this ridge may bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to parts of the area Monday into
Tuesday. Otherwise, the mid level ridge is forecast to build
westward into the Ohio Valley through the remainder of the week.
Hot and humid conditions will be the main theme for the
upcoming week with highs mainly in the 90s and lows in the 70s.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and
extending south into the Ohio Valley will move east tonight.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will build north and east into the
Ohio Valley. Some scattered mid and high level clouds will spill
into the region tonight on a northwest flow aloft. This will
mainly affect northern locations. Otherwise, it will be dry.
With dry air in place, temperatures will be able to cool some
into the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid level ridging will extend into the region on Sunday.
Although low level flow becomes southerly, advancing/increasing
dewpoints will be slowed somewhat due to some dry air aloft and
diurnal mixing. So although temperatures will warm into the
upper 80s to the lower 90s, heat index values will remain mostly
close to the air temperature.

For Sunday night, the center of the mid level ridge will become
centered over the mid Atlantic. Our area will be on the western
periphery of this high, which will allow for some weak
disturbances to rotate north. This will bring some clouds for
Sunday night. Lows will only fall into the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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An anomalously strong and large high pressure at the surface
and aloft will be the dominant feature of this period. Hot
temperatures will be prevalent, though moisture advecting around
the periphery of the high will complicate the picture as
potential clouds and precip compete against insolation.

For Monday, ample moisture advection coupled with surface
heating will produce CAPE around 3000 J/KG, allowing scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Though winds aloft will be weak,
downpours will be possible from an environment containing nearly
2 inches PWAT, while tall cumulonimbus could produce isolated
downbursts. More of the same will be possible on Tuesday, though
warmer air aloft may limit convective potential somewhat. More
warming aloft coupled with slightly drier low levels suggest
mainly dry weather Wednesday through Saturday.

Hot temperatures are the main concern, with forecast highs in
the low and mid 90s Monday through Wednesday rising to the mid
and upper 90s for Thursday through Saturday. Lows in the 70s are
expected each day. Heat indices are likely to be around 100
each day. The duration of this hot pattern and the very warm
readings at night will exacerbate the effects, and heat
headlines cannot be ruled out.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure centered across the Great Lakes and
extending southward into the Ohio Valley will move east tonight.
As this occurs, a mid level ridge will build east/north into
the middle Ohio Valley. For Sunday, the mid level ridge axis
will shift slightly east. Winds from the northeast and east near
10 knots today, will be east between 5 and 10 knots tonight,
and then becoming southerly 5 to 10 knots on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman