-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
324
FXUS61 KILN 101047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and cooler air settles in behind a weak front
moving through the region this morning. The cool air mass is
replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure shifts to the
east through midweek. The warming trend continues through the
end of the week. A cold front approaches the region Friday,
providing a brief interruption to the heat on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A secondary cold front is currently moving through the area
positioned just south of the I-70 corridor. The only indicator
is a change in wind direction from southwest to northwest. Much
of the cloud cover is displaced behind the front. This will
result in a mostly sunny sunrise for most locations except for
portions of west- central Ohio. These clouds will expand in
coverage during the mid- morning hours. In combination with
lower theta-e values advecting in from the north, high
temperatures will struggle to climb through the 60s during the
afternoon. Where cloud cover is delayed the longest (to the
south along the Ohio River), temperatures will sneak into the
lower 70s. Maintained a mention of showers in the east (portions
of central Ohio) and the south (southern Ohio/northern
Kentucky) as sufficient moisture and subtle lift associated with
a PVA max could spark a few showers this afternoon and early
evening.

Cloud cover will begin to break and scattered during the late
afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in from the north.
Mostly clear skies will set the stage for a chilly overnight
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles in over the Midwest and Ohio Valley with
the center off to the west in Illinois. Lights winds and mostly
clear skies allow for efficient cooling. All locations but
perhaps some ridge tops across Ohio River region will see
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s.

Even with sunny skies Tuesday afternoon, the lower theta-e air
mass will take some time to modify. High temperatures likely
stay in the 70s for most locations, but lower 80s are forecast
for the warmer spots (urban areas and greater tri-state area).
Winds will be light and variable with the center of the high
pressure moving eastward over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
West to northwest flow will continue aloft through the end of
the work week. Within this flow, a weak mid level short wave
will push east across the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, but with not much in the way of moisture
associated with it, will maintain a dry forecast. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s, warming to highs on
Thursday in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Another mid level short wave and an associated cold front will
drop east southeast across the region Thursday night into
Friday. Moisture will still not be all that great but with a
little better forcing and some weak instability, will continue
with some lower end pops during that time period. Highs on
Friday will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Surface high
pressure and a slightly cooler airmass will build into the
region through the day on Saturday with afternoon highs ranging
from the mid 80s north to upper 80s across the south.

Mid level ridging and increasing heights will then build into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through early next week.
This will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures with highs on
Sunday mainly in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Starting to see MVFR clouds enter the area from the north as
winds shift to more northerly behind the front. MVFR CIGs are a
bit scattered at this time, so it may take a couple hours
(14-15Z) before full MVFR restrictions begin. Starting MVFR at
12Z for DAY based on current satellite. Expect MVFR CIGs to
gradually increase in height to near VFR before drier air erodes
the cloud deck between 22Z and 00Z. As clouds scatter this
evening, expecting SKC and light/variable winds through the rest
of the period due to high pressure settling in.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis