Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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908 FXUS61 KILN 250153 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 953 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A brief respite in the heat and humidity today, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on Tuesday. Chance for storms returns Tuesday and increases Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek before heat and humidity build back for this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Quiescent night ahead. Cumulus have pretty much dissipated. Could see some mid clouds spread into the northwest before daybreak from upstream storms. Light winds will become southerly. Lows will be in the 60s with coolest readings in the east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes Tuesday. Moisture to return in response to low level jet with an increase in higher theta-e air nosing in from the W toward Tuesday morning. Weakening MCS to track into West Central Ohio early Tuesday. As this complex encounters an unfavorable environment expect it to decay and fall apart leaving a good deal of debris clouds. As the airmass recovers expect moderate instability to develop later Tuesday afternoon - especially along and northwest of I-71. With a high degrees of uncertainty have kept pops in the chance category with the highest pops across West Central Ohio. High temperatures to range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Models solutions support a low level jet of 40-45 kts with moderate instability in place ahead of a shortwave embedded in the westerly mid level flow. Expect storm chances to increase as we head into Tuesday night and spread south and east across ILN/s area. Given instability and shear the potential exists for strong to severe storms with damaging winds being the primary threat late in the day into Tuesday night. ML from CSU and SPC outlooks highlight this threat generally along and northwest of I-71. In the moist airmass locally heavy rain will also be a threat. Mild lows generally in the lower 70s by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Wednesday, a surface boundary in phase with an upper trough and short wave energy will push into an unstable airmass, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds the main threat, along with heavy rain. A dry interlude is suggested for Thursday and Friday when high pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes. A cold front may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. Dry weather returns Monday with high pressure. Temperature fluctuations will be evident with respect to frontal position and associated clouds and precipitation. Highs ranging through the 80s on Wednesday near the initial cold front will slip to the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday in modest cold advection behind the front. Warm advection and insolation associated with the high will help boost readings to around 90 on Friday. Further warm advection just ahead of the next front may bring highs up into the 90s for Saturday. A reduction back to the 80s is expected for Sunday and Monday behind the front. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR is forecast through the period. Expect to see some clouds spread into the region towards 12Z from the remnants of a thunderstorm complex that will drop through the western Great Lakes overnight. Looks like some showers or thunderstorms may develop and potentially affect KDAY between 13Z and 16Z. But otherwise there will be another cumulus field across the region during the latter part of the period. Light winds overnight will become southerly by daybreak. These winds will increase with some gusts at or above 20 kt in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...