-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
270
FXUS61 KILN 251435
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1035 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern, with several chances for showers and
storms, will persist through Wednesday before drier conditions
briefly return for Thursday and Friday. However, rain and storm
chances return once again on Saturday, with drier conditions
favored for Sunday into early next week. Near to above normal
temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCS pushing south across northern Indiana and northern Ohio this
morning has shown some signs of weakening over the last couple
of hours along at least its eastern edge. This is due in part
to an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the convection as
well as the fact that it is moving into a relatively stable
airmass. We do expect this weakening trend to continue over the
next few hours as it progress south into northern portions of
our area.

A lot of uncertainty then remains for how things will progress
as we head through this afternoon and into this evening. Better
instability is forecast to advect eastward into our area through
this afternoon but this will be complicated by the potential
for some debris cloudiness overspreading our area from the north
from the morning MCS. Meanwhile, the remnant outflow boundary
will also be pushing south into our area through the afternoon
hours. This will likely lead to a decent temperature gradient
with highs ranging from the mid 80s north to the low to
possibly mid 90s across our far south.

The 12Z CAMs are fairly sparse with redevelopment later this
afternoon and into this evening. However, there is some
concern that this may be underdone with the remnant boundary
pushing south into the destabilizing airmass. Think the best
chance for redevelopment would be for areas along and west of
I-75/south of I-70 where the potential will exist for some better
instability later this afternoon/evening, as the 12Z NSSL WRF
may be suggesting. If storms do redevelop later this
afternoon/evening, high dcapes in excess of 1000 J/KG would
lead to mainly a damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall
would also be possible given the high PWs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The fcst for this evening through Wednesday following the
expectation for daytime convection becomes even muddier,
unfortunately. It seems plausible, given the latest data, that
there will be a several hour lull in pcpn locally following the
afternoon/early evening storms. This lull should stretch past
midnight into the middle of the night before additional loosely-
organized activity moves back in from the W by/after 06z-09z.
The storms tonight are likely to be much more disorganized and
not pose such a potential for strong/severe activity. However,
any of this activity will bring with it the potential for some
lightning and very heavy downpours/localized ponding of water.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should be on the increase toward daybreak
and beyond, but there are quite a few uncertainties in how
things will unfold on Wednesday in terms of a hazardous-weather
perspective.

There is likely to be better forcing moving E through the
region Wednesday morning through the daytime, potentially too
much so. In fact, in an uncapped environment, the focus for any
organized storms appears rather nebulous (except along the SE-
moving front very late in the day), potentially leading to a
somewhat "grungy" environment characterized by poor LL (and
midlevel) lapse rates. This would suggest that storms/updrafts
may struggle to become particularly intense, with much more in
the way of widespread storms, with only a few becoming strong to
severe briefly. There will be slightly better LL and deep-
layer flow fields to work with Wednesday, but the poor deep-
layer lapse rates and slightly less unstable environment cast
some doubt onto the coverage of /severe/ storms.

Rainfall through the period will be highly-variable, both in
time and space, but would expect that some spots will pick up
1-2 inches between now and Wednesday evening, especially with
the anomalously-high PWATs expected region-wide for the daytime
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The frontal boundary will be moving through the CWA at the start of
the extended period and any lingering showers/storms will be moving
southeast out of the region.

Post frontal air on Thursday indicates high temperatures in the low
80s with dew points in the lower 60s... will feel much drier than
previous days. Weak ridging and surface high pressure take over and
we`ll have mostly sunny skies with some CAA cu. Overnight lows in
the upper 50s/ low 60s as we head into Friday.

Friday we see yet another disturbance on the horizon and return
southerly flow helps pump warm, moist air back into the region. Mid
and upper level clouds increase and highs reach back into the upper
80s. Precip from this system looks to move into the region sometime
Friday into Saturday as the warm associated with this disturbance
lifts through the area. This keeps temperatures on the warmer side,
with highs in the upper 80s/ low 90s for Friday and Saturday. As of
right now, the cold front looks to push through Saturday sometime
and given the amount of moisture pumped up/ robust looking nature of
the parent low pressure, wouldn`t be surprised to see some stronger
storms move through, but time will tell.

Ridging and high pressure move into the region on the backside of
this system and Sunday we dry out again. Temperatures cool slightly
in the post cold-frontal air and highs reach the mid 80s. The high
looks to remain in control for at least another few days, so
anticipating dry conditions for the start of the working week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some mid/high clouds, courtesy of convective debris blowoff
upstream, are filtering in from the W, with thickening cloud
cover expected through early afternoon.

For the daytime, there continues to be quite a bit of
uncertainty in how things will unfold, especially when
attempting to focus on one specific location through time. More
specifically, there remain some uncertainties in both timing
and structural integrity of this axis of SHRA/TSRA which will
quickly move into the local area by early afternoon, especially
as the environment will be increasingly unfavorable for
maintenance of stronger/severe storms with further E/SE extent.
That being said, do think there will be a broken linear feature
that eventually migrates to the S through the local area
mid/late afternoon (17z-23z), bringing with it some SHRA/TSRA
and some gusty wind potential (as the storms will be outflow
dominant). But pinpointing impacts at one location through the
daytime will be somewhat challenging. The activity should weaken
with SE extent, with the best
organization/maintenance/intensity favored for KCVG/KLUK where
the better instby will be positioned by late day. Of course,
abrupt reductions in both VSBYs and CIGs and wind
speed/direction will be favored in the strongest activity.

After 00z, there may be a brief lull that evolves locally
before additional clusters/loosely-organized SHRA/TSRA move back
into the local area between 06z-12z Wednesday. Light southerly
winds will increase to 12-15kts as they go more out of the SW
by/past 15z, eventually subsiding toward the end of the period
as light (generally 5kts or less) southerly flow resumes.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and again on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC