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665
FXUS61 KILN 102330
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and cooler air settles in through Tuesday night. The
cool air mass is replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure
shifts to the east through midweek. The warming trend continues
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches the region
Friday, providing a brief interruption to the heat on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As seen in satellite trends, cloud deck will continue to push
south. Still some additional scattered to broken clouds behind
the initial band that will pass across central Ohio later into
the evening before finally clearing out. Lows will fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure parks overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds remain
light and variable under the surface high along with fair weather
skies. Temperatures stay below mid June averages and humidity values
persist on the lower side for this time of year. Forecast highs on
Tuesday are in the middle to upper 70s. Forecast lows on Tuesday
night are in the middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface high pressure continues to work its way east at the start of
the period, placing the Ohio Valley on the western periphery. This
results in increased southerly low level flow around the backside of
the high. Temperatures and Tds respond, with highs on Wednesday in
the low 80s. Dry conditions remain in place during the overnight
hours into Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon we begin to feel warmer, with high temperatures
reaching the upper 80s/low 90s. However, a disturbance near the
Hudson Bay area will drag a cold front through the mid-Atlantic
region Thursday night, resulting in in low end shower/storm chances
for our area with some temperature moderation for Friday. Moisture
is pretty meager with only a brief plume of higher PWATs moving
through the area and overall QPF footprint isn`t much. MVFR ceilings developed across the area during the late morning
behind a cold front. MVFR ceilings may persist into the early
afternoon before lifting to VFR ceilings shortly after 1800z.
Ceilings should continue to lift and scatter later this afternoon
and into the evening as high pressure moves in from the northwest.
Once ceilings go VFR, they should stay that way for the rest of the
TAF period. Some river valley fog is possible at KLUK around 1100z
Tuesday.

Northwesterly winds persist through 0000z. Wind go light and
variable after 0000z and remain that way through the rest of the TAF
period


Any remaining showers move out of the region on Friday and a
slightly cooler airmass follows, resulting in high temperatures in
the mid 80s (still 3-5 degrees above climatological normals) and
overnight lows in the low 60s (near normal). Saturday and Saturday
night are more of the same with dry conditions as high pressure
moves in from the west.

With the arrival of this high pressure and mid/upper level ridging,
the heat will really be cranked up as we head into the end of the
weekend and start of the following work week. High temperatures
continue to trend into the 90s. The recently rolled out Heat Risk
Tool indicates a "Moderate" risk (level of heat affects most
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effecting
cooling and/or adequate hydration)... visit heat.gov for additional
details.
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&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR ceilings across the area will diminish early in the period,
although some scattered clouds may persist well into the night,
particularly at the Columbus terminals. It is not out of the
question that some fog/mist could develop at KLUK, so included a
temporary visibility restriction there. VFR beyond that. Perhaps
a few cumulus will develop later in the period in central Ohio.
Winds will become light and remain generally north to
northwesterly.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...